[MCN] Just to our north, in Alberta, big changes for 100s of plant species

[Lance Olsen]

"We found that 368 species (24%) may lose on average > 80% of their 
current suitable climates (habitats), while 539 species (35%) were 
projected to more than double their current suitable range. Both 
species richness and PD were predicted to increase in most areas, 
except for the species-rich Rocky Mountains, which are predicted to 
experience future declines."
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Diversity and Distributions
Volume 21, Issue 12, pages 1441-1454, December 2015

Gains and losses of plant species and phylogenetic diversity for a 
northern high-latitude region
Jian Zhang, Scott E. Nielsen, Jessica Stolar, Youhua Chen and Wilfried Thuiller

Keywords:
climate refugia; ecological niche modelling; ensemble forecast; 
evolutionary diversity; extinction risk; range shift

Abstract
<http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ddi.12365/abstract>http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ddi.12365/abstract

Aim
Forecasting potential patterns in species' distributions and 
diversity under climate change is crucial for biodiversity 
conservation. Although high-latitude regions are expected to 
experience some of the greatest increases in temperature due to 
global warming, little is known on how individual responses in 
species will affect patterns in phylogenetic diversity (PD).
Location
Alberta, Canada.
Methods
We used 160,589 occurrence records for 1541 species of seed plants in 
Alberta (nearly 90% of the province's seed flora) and ensemble niche 
models to project current and future suitable habitats. We then 
examined climate change vulnerability of individual species and the 
potential impacts of climate change on species richness, PD and both 
taxonomic and phylogenetic endemism (PE). We also assessed whether 
predicted losses of PD were distributed randomly across the plant 
tree of life.
Results
We found that 368 species (24%) may lose on average > 80% of their 
current suitable climates (habitats), while 539 species (35%) were 
projected to more than double their current suitable range. Both 
species richness and PD were predicted to increase in most areas, 
except for the species-rich Rocky Mountains, which are predicted to 
experience future declines. Maps of taxonomic and PE identified 
several regions with high conservation value and climate change 
threat suggesting priorities for conservation and climate change 
adaptation. Overall, a non-random extinction risk was found for 
Alberta's flora, demonstrating potential future impacts of climate 
change on the loss of evolutionary history.
Main conclusions
Our analyses suggest that climate change will have asymmetrical 
effects on the distribution of Alberta's plant diversity and endemism 
and a non-random extinction risk of the current state of species 
evolutionary history. Our results provide practical guidance for 
biodiversity conservation and management in this region by 
prioritizing species' vulnerabilities and places with higher 
taxonomic or evolutionary risk due to future climate change.
-- 
"Climate change will alter ecosystem services, perceptions of value, 
and decisions regarding land uses. Outcomes for people will be 
determined by the interaction between changes in biophysical 
environments (e.g., climate, disturbance, and invasive species) and 
human responses to those changes (management and policy)."

United States Department of Agriculture
Forest Service
Pacific Northwest Research Station
General Technical Report PNW-GTR-870
December 2012
http://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/pubs/pnw_gtr870/pnw_gtr870.pdf
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