[MCN] NSF: forests and drought across the US

[Lance Olsen]

National Science Foundation Press Release 16-019
February 22, 2016

Increasing drought threatens almost all U.S. forests

Forests nationwide are feeling the heat from 
increasing drought and climate change, according 
to a new study by scientists from 14 research 
institutions.

"Over the last two decades, warming temperatures 
and variable precipitation have increased the 
severity of forest droughts across much of the 
continental United States," said James Clark, 
lead author of the study and an environmental 
scientist at Duke University.

Clark and colleagues published their paper today 
in the journal Global Change Biology.
<<http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.13160/full>>

"While the effects have been most pronounced in 
the West, our analysis shows virtually that all 
U.S. forests are now experiencing change and are 
vulnerable to future declines," Clark said.

It's a tall order to predict what these forests 
will look like in 20 years, the researchers say.

Drought across the U.S. West
Drought-induced forest diebacks (the deaths of 
entire communities of trees known as 
stands), bark beetle infestations, and wildfires 
are already occurring on large scales across the 
West. Many models predict droughts are likely to 
become more severe, frequent and prolonged across 
much of the U.S.

Evidence is also mounting that climate is 
changing faster than tree populations can respond.

As conditions become drier and warmer, many tree 
populations, especially those in Eastern forests, 
may not be able to expand into new, more 
favorable habitats, fast enough to keep up.

"Most forest research is carried out at local 
study sites, where trees are individually 
catalogued and measured," said Henry Gholz, a 
program director in the Division of Environmental 
Biology at the National Science Foundation (NSF), 
which supported the research. "This approach 
risks 'missing the forest for the trees.'"

The new results show that changes in both western 
and eastern U.S. forests could happen quickly 
under drier conditions in the future, said Gholz.

"Prolonged drought affects wildfire risks, 
species distribution, forest biodiversity and 
productivity, and virtually all goods and 
services provided by forests," Clark said, "so 
there is a pressing need to know what is 
happening now, what might happen in the future, 
and how we can manage for these changes."

Forests and drought, from A to Z
The new paper addresses this need by providing a 
comprehensive overview of current and projected 
drought effects on forests nationwide, how they 
vary by region, and which management practices 
could help to partially mitigate adverse effects.

The paper also identifies critical gaps in our 
knowledge base that hinder scientists' ability to 
predict the pace and extent of future 
drought effects on forests.

"We currently have a pretty good handle on 
predicting the impacts of climate change and 
drought on individual trees," Clark said. 
"Ecologists have identified many of the important 
differences between species that explain how they 
respond differently to drought."

But, he said, uncertainty still exists about what 
might happen at the species-wide or stand-wide 
levels, particularly in Eastern forests. "These 
are the scales where we really need reliable 
predictions so forest managers can take steps now 
to help reduce large-scale adverse future 
effects."

Without a stronger basis for understanding how 
the complex interactions among trees, species and 
environmental conditions work at broader scales, 
even the most sophisticated current models can 
provide only limited guidance, Clark said. 
"That's where we need to focus our efforts now."

Major co-authors of the paper are Louis Iverson 
and Christopher W. Woodall of the U.S. Forest 
Service, as well as scientists with the U.S. 
Geological Survey, the University of Vermont, the 
University of California (UC), Santa Barbara, 
Sarah Lawrence College, the University of 
Michigan, the University of Arizona, Ohio State 
University, Harvard Forest, UC Davis, Northern 
Arizona University and the Swiss Federal Research 
Institute.

-NSF-
Media Contacts
Cheryl Dybas, NSF, (703) 292-7734, cdybas at nsf.gov
Tim Lucas, Duke University, (919) 613-8084, tdlucas at duke.edu

Related Websites
NSF News: Cause of California drought linked to 
climate change: 
https://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=132709
NSF News: Drought, heat likely to affect U.S. 
West's power grid: 
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=135021
NSF Discovery: Earth Week: Bark beetles change 
Rocky Mountain stream flows, affect water 
quality: 
http://nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?cntn_id=130951
NSF Discovery: Ghosts of Forests Past: Bark 
Beetles Kill Lodgepole Pines, Affecting Entire 
Watersheds: 
http://www.nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?cntn_id=128398
NSF Discovery: Born during a drought: Bad news 
for baboons: 
http://nsf.gov/discoveries/disc_summ.jsp?cntn_id=134000&org=NSF

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