[MCN] Western wildfire science in plain language

[Lance Olsen]

Physics Today, a journal of the American 
Institute of Physics, just published a plain 
language review of the literature (w/graphics) on 
the history and future of wildfire in the Western 
US. Implications for the entire western portion 
of the continent are indicated if not made 
explicit.

Western US wildfires in an increasingly warming climate
Higher temperatures and severe droughts will 
likely lead to more wildfire activity in the most 
vulnerable section of the country.
Derek Mallia
25 May 2016

http://scitation.aip.org/content/aip/magazine/physicstoday/news/10.1063/PT.5.4021

1st 2 paragraphs: (Bold emphasis added)

"Wildfires have been around as long as there have 
been terrestrial plants-some 420 million years. 
With the advent of the Industrial Revolution 
during the 18th century, fire activity surged 
across much of the Northern Hemisphere; humans 
thus became the dominant driver of wildfires. 
Fire suppression techniques developed at the 
beginning of the 20th century helped decrease 
global wildfire occurrence and protect human 
infrastructure and lives. But despite those 
efforts, the downward trend is set to reverse. 
The cause: anthropogenic climate change.

"Recent research suggests that the forests of the 
western US will particularly suffer. Annual 
temperatures for the region will likely rise 
between 1 °C and 8 °C by the end of the 21st 
century, according to climate simulations based 
on the moderate emission scenario developed by 
the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 
Droughts will get longer and drier, which will 
prolong wildfire season. Some studies suggest 
that the upward swing in fire activity in the 
western US has already begun."

One more excerpt:

"The climate projections in figure 1 suggest that 
global fire activity will continue to decrease 
over the next decade or so before increasing 
again through the end of the 21st century. 
However, several studies suggest that an increase 
in fire activity has already begun across the 
western US, especially across California, as a 
result of extended drought conditions."
-- 
*******************************************************************************************************************************
"Full of recent references and statistics, 
Harvesting the Biosphere adds to the growing 
chorus of warnings about the current trajectory 
of human activity on a finite planet, of which 
climate change is only one dimension. One can 
quibble with some assumptions or tweak Smil's 
calculations, but the bottom line will not 
change, only the time it may take humanity to 
reach a crisis point."

Stephen Running. "Approaching the Limits" Science 15 March 2013.

Book review. Harvesting the Biosphere: What we 
have taken from Nature. by Vaclav Smil .  MIT 
Press, Cambridge, MA, 2012. 315 pp. $29, £19.95. 
ISBN 9780262018562.

I have the full review as pdf. Lance


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