[MCN] Increased river flooding at 1.5C, 2C, and 4C global heat levels

Lance Olsen lance at wildrockies.org
Mon Jan 30 09:43:41 EST 2017

Geospace - American Geophysical Union 
Blogosphere: Global flood risk could increase 
five-fold with a 4-degree C temperature rise

The increase in flood risk is highest for Asia, America and Europe

Longer excerpt:

The new research, published in Earth's Future 
[Open Access] 
a journal of the American Geophysical Union, 
presents a global assessment of the economic 
costs and the population affected by river floods 
under different global warming scenarios. The 
research team analyzed a selection of 
high-resolution climate projections and 
simulations, and assessed the frequency and 
magnitude of river floods and their expected 
impacts under future scenarios.

The study reveals that, with a 4-degree Celsius 
temperature increase globally, countries 
representing 73 percent of the global population 
would face a 580 percent increase in flood risk. 
In addition, 79 percent of the global economy 
would face a 500 percent increase in flood 
damages. In the case of a 2-degree Celsius 
temperature increase, both the affected 
population and the related flood damages would 
rise by 170 percent compared to present levels. 
Even under the most optimistic scenario of a 
1.5-degree Celsius temperature increase, the 
authors estimate that the flood-affected 
population would still double, and flood damages 
would increase by 120 percent.

The projected changes are not evenly distributed 
across the globe. The increase in flood risk is 
highest for Asia, America and Europe, while it 
remains low for most countries in Africa and 
Oceania, independent of the temperature increase.
"By the end of the 21st century, forest 
ecosystems in the United States will differ from 
those of today as a result of changing climate."

Vose, James M.; Peterson, David L.; 
Patel-Weynand, Toral. 2012. Effects of climatic 
variability and change on forest ecosystems: a 
comprehensive science synthesis for the U.S. 
General Technical Report PNW-GTR-870. Portland, 
OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest 
Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 265 
p. http://treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/42610
"Conservationists must therefore assess both 
current and future distributions of species. .... 
One critical question is whether models Š can Š 
provide robust predictions of future 
distributions under climate change."

Miguel B. Araújo and Carsten Rahbek.
"How Does Climate Change Affect Biodiversity?"
Science, Vol. 313, September 8, 2006
" Š. the earth's atmosphere is so thoroughly 
mixed and so rapidly recycled through the 
biosphere that the next breath you inhale will 
contain atoms exhaled by Jesus at Gethsemane and 
Adolf Hitler at Munich."

Preston Cloud and Aharon Gibor. "The Oxygen Cycle."
Scientific American, September 1970

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