[MCN] Increased river flooding at 1.5C, 2C, and 4C global heat levels
lance at wildrockies.org
Mon Jan 30 09:43:41 EST 2017
Geospace - American Geophysical Union
Blogosphere: Global flood risk could increase
five-fold with a 4-degree C temperature rise
The increase in flood risk is highest for Asia, America and Europe
The new research, published in Earth's Future
a journal of the American Geophysical Union,
presents a global assessment of the economic
costs and the population affected by river floods
under different global warming scenarios. The
research team analyzed a selection of
high-resolution climate projections and
simulations, and assessed the frequency and
magnitude of river floods and their expected
impacts under future scenarios.
The study reveals that, with a 4-degree Celsius
temperature increase globally, countries
representing 73 percent of the global population
would face a 580 percent increase in flood risk.
In addition, 79 percent of the global economy
would face a 500 percent increase in flood
damages. In the case of a 2-degree Celsius
temperature increase, both the affected
population and the related flood damages would
rise by 170 percent compared to present levels.
Even under the most optimistic scenario of a
1.5-degree Celsius temperature increase, the
authors estimate that the flood-affected
population would still double, and flood damages
would increase by 120 percent.
The projected changes are not evenly distributed
across the globe. The increase in flood risk is
highest for Asia, America and Europe, while it
remains low for most countries in Africa and
Oceania, independent of the temperature increase.
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