[MCN] Climate-cost/risk: "the lives of children already born" : A quote w/link

[Lance Olsen]

"If we do not act to reduce greenhouse gas emissions forcefully prior to the 2020 election, costs "to reduce emissions at a magnitude and timing consistent with averting dangerous human interference with the climate will skyrocket," said Steven Skerlos <https://me.engin.umich.edu/people/faculty/steve-skerlos>, U-M professor of mechanical engineering. "That will only make the inevitable shift to renewable energy less effective in maintaining a stable climate system throughout the lives of children already born.”

Quote from press release, here:
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-10/uom-bec101117.php <https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2017-10/uom-bec101117.php>

Findings as reported in Environmental Science & Technology ( A journal of the American Chemical Society)

Environ. Sci. Technol., 2017, 51 (19), pp 10932–10942
DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.7b01295
Publication Date (Web): September 14, 2017
Copyright © 2017 American Chemical Society

Analysis of Costs and Time Frame for Reducing CO2 Emissions by 70% in the U.S. Auto and Energy Sectors by 2050

Sarang D. Supekar <http://pubs.acs.org/author/Supekar%2C+Sarang+D>†  and Steven J. Skerlos <http://pubs.acs.org/author/Skerlos%2C+Steven+J>* <http://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/acs.est.7b01295#cor1>†‡
† Department of Mechanical Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109, United States
‡ Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48109, United States
Summary
http://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/acs.est.7b01295 <http://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/acs.est.7b01295>

"Using a least-cost optimization framework, it is shown that unless emissions reductions beyond those already in place begin at the latest by 2025 (±2 years) for the U.S. automotive sector, and by 2026 (−3 years) for the U.S. electric sector, 2050 targets to achieve necessary within-sector preventative CO2 emissions reductions of 70% or more relative to 2010 will be infeasible. The analysis finds no evidence to justify delaying climate action in the name of reducing technological costs. Even without considering social and environmental damage costs, delaying aggressive climate action does not reduce CO2 abatement costs even under the most optimistic trajectories for improvements in fuel efficiencies, demand, and technology costs in the U.S. auto and electric sectors. In fact, the abatement cost for both sectors is found to increase sharply with every year of delay beyond 2020. When further considering reasonable limits to technology turnover, retirements, and new capacity additions, these costs would be higher, and the feasible time frame for initiating successful climate action on the 70% by 2050 target would be shorter, perhaps having passed already. The analysis also reveals that optimistic business-as-usual scenarios in the U.S. will, conservatively, release 79–108 billion metric tons of CO2. This could represent up to 13% of humanity’s remaining carbon budget through 2050."







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