[MCN] What Governor Bullock's Grizzly Bear Advisory Committee members need to know

Lance Olsen lance at wildrockies.org
Sat May 11 10:22:32 EDT 2019


Heat-stress will affect wildlife

Many a Montanan has seen headlines about brutally cold winters’ impact on wildlife. The impact of brutally hot summers will plausibly be as great or greater.

Wildlife is an important feature of what the National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA) refers to as the “human environment,” and is important to what humans want. There is increasingly realistic risk that what people want and expect for wildlife is not what widlife will get. 

Instead, it is increasingly likely that rising temperatures caused by emissions from consumer, agency, and industry combustion of fossil fuels will have adverse impact on wildlife very similar to the adverse effects likely for humans’ summer outdoor recreation.

Documents and other communications wildlife need to be candid about any difference between what people want for wildlife and what wildlife is likely to get as summer heat intensifies. The National Environmental Protection Act (NEPA) is quite specific in requiring disclosure of effects on “the human environment,” and wildlife is clearly a highly valued feature of protecting the human environment.

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“  … organisms have a physiological response to temperature, and these responses have important consequences …. biological rates and times (e.g., growth, reproduction, mortality and activity) vary with temperature.”
 
Anthony I. Dell, Samraat Pawar and Van M. Savage, Temperature dependence of trophic interactions are driven by asymmetry of species responses and foraging strategy.
Journal of Animal Ecology 2013 
==========================================

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B  2009
Review 
Effects of heat stress on mammalian reproduction 
Peter J. Hansen* Department of Animal Sciences, University of Florida, PO Box 110910, Gainesville, FL 32611-0910, USA 

Abstract
Heat stress can have large effects on most aspects of reproductive function in mammals. These include disruptions in spermatogenesis and oocyte development, oocyte maturation, early embryonic development, foetal and placental growth and lactation. These deleterious effects of heat stress are the result of either the hyperthermia associated with heat stress or the physiological adjustments made by the heat-stressed animal to regulate body temperature. Many effects of elevated temperature on gametes and the early embryo involve increased production of reactive oxygen species. Genetic adaptation to heat stress is possible both with respect to regulation of body temperature and cellular resistance to elevated temperature. 

Keywords: heat stress; reproduction; spermatogenesis; oocyte; embryo; gestation

Excerpt from Introduction
As endotherms, mammals typically function at high core body temperatures that range from approximately 35C to 39C (Prosser & Heath 1991). These high temperatures, which generally exceed the temperature of the surrounding environment, are achieved through combustion of fuel stuffs to achieve a high metabolic rate (i.e. heat production). Body temperature is closely regulated by matching heat production with heat loss to the environment via conduction, convection, radiation and evaporation. The set-point temperature for regulation of body temperature is not fixed but can vary diurnally or, in some animals, as part of the hibernation response or in response to changes in environmental temperature or other cues (Heldmaier et al. 2004). 

As a group, endotherms can better tolerate low body temperatures than high body temperatures. Indeed, many hibernating species maintain core body temperature at 6 –10C or less (Heldmaier et al. 2004). There is less resistance to body temperatures above the set-point temperature: death is likely when temperatures exceed these values by a few degrees because of disruptions in membrane fluidity, protein structure and, for animals in which sweating or panting exist, electrolyte and fluid loss. In humans, for example, set-point temperature is 37C and potentially lethal effects of hyperthermia are common at body temperatures above 40 –41C (Jardine 2007). Not surprisingly then, regulation of core body temperature is a priority over several other physiological functions. Regulation of body temperature in endotherms can be considered as a homeokinetic control process whereby achievement of equilibrium in body temperature involves dynamic processes that lead to perturbations in other physiological processes.

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Heat Stressed Wildlife - Wires <https://www.wires.org.au/blog/heat-stressed-wildlife-1>
https://www.wires.org.au/blog/heat-stressed-wildlife-1 <https://www.wires.org.au/blog/heat-stressed-wildlife-1>
Dec 28, 2018 ... Specific signs of heat stress to watch for are: Any bird that is panting indicates that they are really hot. A healthy bird will try and get out of the ...
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Managing Heat for Wildlife on Texas Rangelands - Texas A&M ... <https://agrilifeextension.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Managing-Heat-for-Wildlife-on-Texas-Rangelands.pdf>
https://agrilifeextension.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Managing-Heat-for-Wildlife-on-Texas-Rangelands.pdf <https://agrilifeextension.tamu.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Managing-Heat-for-Wildlife-on-Texas-Rangelands.pdf>
tive heat). Because digestion produces heat, most wildlife limit food intake and ... from the detrimental effects of heat stress. ... 
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The lesions of heat stroke in deer, and other respiratory evaporative ... <https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00480169.2009.36876>
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00480169.2009.36876 <https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00480169.2009.36876>
Feb 16, 2011 ... The lesions of heat stroke in deer and other respiratory evaporative-cooling
animals are poorly described in the current veterinary literature.
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3 Ways Deer Cope With Heat and Drought | Wired To Hunt <http://wiredtohunt.com/2012/07/23/3-ways-deer-cope-with-heat-and-drought/>
http://wiredtohunt.com/2012/07/23/3-ways-deer-cope-with-heat-and-drought/ <http://wiredtohunt.com/2012/07/23/3-ways-deer-cope-with-heat-and-drought/>
Jul 23, 2012 ... That said, be aware that these conditions will stress the deer.
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Behavioural Responses to Thermal Conditions Affect Seasonal Mass ... <https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0065972>
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0065972 <https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0065972>
Jun 11, 2013 ... Moose (Alces alces) are thought to suffer from heat stress … 
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Estimates of critical thermal environments for mule deer <https://journals.uair.arizona.edu/index.php/jrm/article/download/8447/8059>
https://journals.uair.arizona.edu/index.php/jrm/article/download/8447/8059 <https://journals.uair.arizona.edu/index.php/jrm/article/download/8447/8059>
critical environments for mule deer in winter and summer based on standard operative ...... tures for mule deer to range from cold-stressed to heat-stressed.
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Can Wildlife Adapt to Heat Waves? | JSTOR Daily <https://daily.jstor.org/can-wildlife-adapt-to-heat-waves/>
https://daily.jstor.org/can-wildlife-adapt-to-heat-waves/ <https://daily.jstor.org/can-wildlife-adapt-to-heat-waves/>
Feb 18, 2019 ... The risks of heat waves for wildlife have been known for at least forty years when biologist Amy Salzman, writing in Ecology, documented how a ...

2004
===================================

 More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century. 

Gerald A. Meehl and Claudia Tebaldi. 
Science, 13 AUGUST 2004

2008
================================

"All organisms live within a limited range of body temperatures …."
 
Hans O. Pörtner and Anthony P. Farrell. Physiology and Climate Change. 
SCIENCE 31 OCTOBER 2008       VOL 322

2009
==================================
"Observed heat wave intensities in the current decade are larger than worst-case projections."

Auroop R. Gangulya, et al. Higher trends but larger uncertainty and geographic variability in 21st century temperature and heat waves. 
PNAS, September 15, 2009.

2017
++++++++++++++++++++++++

“It is now well recognized that the likelihood of  extremely hot summers has significantly increased due to anthropogenically-induced warming. ….Building on Sun et al. (2014), Mueller et al. (2016) … found that …. the historically hottest summers would become the norm for more than half of the world’s population within 20 years.”

Chao Li et al. Recent very hot summers in northern hemispheric land areas measured by wet bulb globe temperature will be the norm within 20 years.  

Earth’s Future, accepted article. Accepted online October 17, 2017.
 
Open access:
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017EF000639/full <http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2017EF000639/full>

2017
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

“ … we expect with high confidence that global-average temperatures greater than those observed in 2015 will occur at least every second year by 2040.” 

Sophie C. Lewis et al. DEFINING A NEW NORMAL FOR EXTREMES IN A WARMING WORLD
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, June 2017

Open access:
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0183.1 <https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0183.1>

2017
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"No one wanted to pay attention to the implications of a world four degrees warmer… It's too horrendous to think about.  And no one talked about it. Then a few scientists said let's have a conference and actually talk about it. They held this conference in Oxford and I went along. As the conference started, there was a kind of suppressed emotional intensity, except in the coffee breaks. It was then that I would buttonhole a couple of scientists and say: 'Well, you know we're speculating about this. But what do you really think is the situation?' And one of them just looked at me and said: 'We're f--ked.'" — Clive Hamilton 
 
Paul Kennedy. Canadian Broadcasting Corporation. Thursday September 07, 2017
http://www.cbc.ca/radio/ideas/are-we-f-ked-decoding-the-resistance-to-climate-change-1.4277614 <http://www.cbc.ca/radio/ideas/are-we-f-ked-decoding-the-resistance-to-climate-change-1.4277614>

2019
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Science April 16, 2019

New climate models predict a warming surge

By Paul Voosen <https://www.sciencemag.org/author/paul-voosen>

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/04/new-climate-models-predict-warming-surge <https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/04/new-climate-models-predict-warming-surge>

For nearly 40 years, the massive computer models used to simulate global climate have delivered a fairly consistent picture of how fast human carbon emissions might warm the world. 

But a host of global climate models developed for the United Nations’s next major assessment of global warming, due in 2021 <https://wg1.ipcc.ch/AR6/AR6.html>, are now showing a puzzling but undeniable trend. They are running hotter <https://www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-why-results-from-the-next-generation-of-climate-models-matter> than they have in the past. Soon the world could be, too.

In earlier models, doubling atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) over preindustrial levels led models to predict somewhere between 2°C and 4.5°C of warming once the planet came into balance. 

But in at least eight of the next-generation models <https://cmip6workshop19.sciencesconf.org/data/CMIP6_CMIP6AnalysisWorkshop_Barcelona_190325_FINAL.pdf>, produced by leading centers in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and France, that “equilibrium climate sensitivity” has come in at 5°C or warmer. Modelers are struggling to identify which of their refinements explain this heightened sensitivity before the next assessment from the United Nations’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). But the trend “is definitely real. There’s no question,” says Reto Knutti, a climate scientist at ETH Zurich in Switzerland. “Is that realistic or not? At this point, we don’t know.”

That’s an urgent question: If the results are to be believed, the world has even less time than was thought to limit warming to 1.5°C or 2°C above preindustrial levels—a threshold many see as oo dangerous to cross. With atmospheric CO2 already at 408 parts per million (ppm) and rising, up from preindustrial levels of 280 ppm, even previous scenarios suggested the world could warm 2°C within the next few decades. 

The new simulations are only now being discussed at meetings, and not all the numbers are in, so  “it’s a bit too early to get wound up,” says John Fyfe, a climate scientist at the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis in Victoria, whose model is among those running much hotter than in the past. 

“But maybe we have to face a reality in the future that’s more pessimistic than it was in the past.”

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“You don’t listen to the science because you are only interested in solutions that will enable you to carry on like before.”
Greta Thunberg’s invited address to the British Parliament
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/apr/23/greta-thunberg-full-speech-to-mps-you-did-not-act-in-time <https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/apr/23/greta-thunberg-full-speech-to-mps-you-did-not-act-in-time>

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“The climate crisis is both the easiest and the hardest issue we have ever faced. The easiest because we know what we must do. We must stop the emissions of greenhouse gases. The hardest because our current economics are still dependent on burning fossil fuels ….”

“You don’t listen to the science because you are only interested in solutions that will enable you to carry on like before.”

Greta Thunberg’s invited address to the British Parliament
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/apr/23/greta-thunberg-full-speech-to-mps-you-did-not-act-in-time
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“Fossil fuels are at the base of our economy. ... Every aspect of modern life is tied up with fossil fuels, and to break that relationship is a monumental effort that we ought to be making. I couldn’t argue more strongly for that, but it’s not like, ‘Oh, if everyone just suddenly agreed we had a problem that we would immediately have a solution.’ ”

Elizabeth Kolbert
https://www.providencejournal.com/news/20190426/inside-story-environment-writer-kolbert-explores-climate-of-denial


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