[MCN] Climate and the kids

[Lance Olsen]

Climate and kids : a diversity of risks today and many tomorrows

First, this quick excerpt from a history of climate science

The Discovery of Global Warming 
A Hyperlinked History of Climate Change Science

Spencer Weart, American Institute of Physics

Introduction:
https://history.aip.org/climate/summary.htm <https://history.aip.org/climate/summary.htm>

It is an epic story: the struggle of thousands of men and women over the course of a century for very high stakes. For some, the work required actual physical courage, a risk to life and limb in icy wastes or on the high seas. The rest needed more subtle forms of courage. They gambled decades of arduous effort on the chance of a useful discovery, and staked their reputations on what they claimed to have found. Even as they stretched their minds to the limit on intellectual problems that often proved insoluble, their attention was diverted into grueling administrative struggles to win minimal support for the great work. A few took the battle into the public arena, often getting more blame than praise; most labored to the end of their lives in obscurity. In the end they did win their goal, which was simply knowledge.

Like most histories, this one begins far back. People had long suspected that human activity could change the local climate. For example, ancient Greeks and 19th-century Americans debated how cutting down forests might bring more rainfall to a region, or perhaps less. But greater shifts of climate happened all by themselves. The discovery in the mid 19th century that there had been ice ages in the distant past proved that climate could change radically over much of the globe, a change vastly beyond anything mere humans seemed able to cause. So what did cause global climate change — was it variations in the heat of the Sun? Volcanoes erupting clouds of smoke? The raising and lowering of mountain ranges, which diverted wind patterns and ocean currents? 

Or could it be changes in the composition of the air itself? In 1824 a French scientist had explained that Earth's temperature would be much lower if the planet lacked an atmosphere, and in 1859 an English scientist discovered that the chief gases that trapped heat were water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO2).

In 1896 the Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius published a new idea. By burning fossil fuels such as coal, thus adding [more] CO2 to Earth's atmosphere, humanity would raise the planet's average temperature

https://history.aip.org/climate/summary.htm <https://history.aip.org/climate/summary.htm>


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One “additional day of unusually high temperatures during a pregnancy increases the chances of hospitalization …”
Oct 22, 2019
How heat waves harm pregnant women and newborns | MIT ... <https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/10/22/132492/how-heat-waves-harm-pregnant-women-and-newborns/#:~:text=The%20results%3A%20An%20additional%20day,New%20York%2C%20and%20Washington%20state.>
www.technologyreview.com › ... › Clean energy <https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/10/22/132492/how-heat-waves-harm-pregnant-women-and-newborns/#:~:text=The%20results%3A%20An%20additional%20day,New%20York%2C%20and%20Washington%20state.>

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 <https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200225133736.htm>
Heatwave exposure linked to increased risk of preterm birth in ... <https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200225133736.htm>
www.sciencedaily.com › releases › 2020/02 <https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/02/200225133736.htm>
Feb 25, 2020 — A new study found that exposure to heatwaves during the last week of pregnancy was strongly linked to an increased risk of preterm delivery ...
 <https://www.sciencealert.com/heat-waves-could-spell-trouble-during-pregnancy-raising-the-risk-of-early-birth>
70 International Studies Show That a Warming World ... <https://www.sciencealert.com/heat-waves-could-spell-trouble-during-pregnancy-raising-the-risk-of-early-birth>
www.sciencealert.com › heat-waves-could-spell-trouble... <https://www.sciencealert.com/heat-waves-could-spell-trouble-during-pregnancy-raising-the-risk-of-early-birth>
Nov 8, 2020 — "Pregnant women merit a place alongside the groups typically considered as ... In a prolonged heat wave, the risk of early birth rose by 16 percent. To put that in perspective, the global average rate of preterm births is about 10 ...

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Extreme heat and paediatric emergency department visits in Southwestern Ontario <https://www.google.com/url?rct=j&sa=t&url=https://academic.oup.com/pch/advance-article/doi/10.1093/pch/pxaa096/5983300&ct=ga&cd=CAEYdyoTOTg0NzcwMzc1NzE5MzUxNzk0NDIaYWJkMGVmMWVmZTRkNWE4NTpjb206ZW46VVM&usg=AFQjCNGCqkX-_2csG1_weqq8ZV7fzrCXFA>
Oxford Academic Journals - Oxford University Press

Extreme heat, defined as the 99th percentile of the maximum temperature distribution, occurred at 33.1°C and was associated with an overall 22% increase in emergency department visits, compared to the reference temperature of 21°C. This association was mostly found between the second and fifth day after the exposure, suggesting a slightly delayed effect.

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“Children are particularly vulnerable to heat-related illness and death.”
<<https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-08/documents/print_heat-deaths-2016.pdf <https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-08/documents/print_heat-deaths-2016.pdf>>

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PNAS May 26, 2020 117 (21) 11350-11355; first published May 4, 2020
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910114117 <https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1910114117>
Future of the human climate niche 

Chi Xu, Timothy A. Kohler Timothy M. Lenton, Jens-Christian Svenning and Marten Scheffer

We show that for thousands of years, humans have concentrated in a surprisingly narrow subset of Earth’s available climates, characterized by mean annual temperatures around ∼13 °C. This distribution likely reflects a human temperature niche related to fundamental constraints. We demonstrate that depending on scenarios of population growth and warming, over the coming 50 y, 1 to 3 billion people are projected to be left outside the climate conditions that have served humanity well over the past 6,000 y. Absent climate mitigation or migration, a substantial part of humanity will be exposed to mean annual temperatures warmer than nearly anywhere today. 

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The Climate Crisis Is Already Killing People, New Lancet Report Warns <https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEJwI7ZHLUEA_5NVzN8i2TngqMwgEKioIACIQVtxBmyfa_mqpa0goyYax6CoUCAoiEFbcQZsn2v5qqWtIKMmGsegw-uHVBg?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen>
That's the warning from the latest Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change, an annual public health report released Wednesday. 
EcoWatch <https://news.google.com/publications/CAAiEFbcQZsn2v5qqWtIKMmGsegqFAgKIhBW3EGbJ9r-aqlrSCjJhrHo?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen>
2 days ago

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“The most painful and expensive way to deal with global climate change will be to ignore it until something happens that elicits powerful public demands for immediate and Draconian action.”
 
Jonathan Lash. “As the earth heats up. “  
Journal of Commerce, August 16, 1996.

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"There is also growing evidence of climate anxiety affecting mental health <https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/feb/10/overwhelming-and-terrifying-impact-of-climate-crisis-on-mental-health> and earlier in 2020 more than 1,000 clinical psychologists signed an open letter <https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSdU6L3NM12ikT-34ZPlp1yv-6nHcM5aqhmid6nK-M3plZGu3A/viewform?vc=0&c=0&w=1> warning of “acute trauma on a global scale”. Last week, a survey revealed that more than half of child and adolescent psychiatrists in England were seeing patients distressed <https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/nov/20/half-of-child-psychiatrists-surveyed-say-patients-have-environment-anxiety> about the state of the environment."
<<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/27/climate-apocalypse-fears-stopping-people-having-children-study <https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/27/climate-apocalypse-fears-stopping-people-having-children-study>>>

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Experts tell Biden to teach 50 million American children about climate crisis in classrooms | TheHill <https://news.google.com/articles/CBMicGh0dHBzOi8vdGhlaGlsbC5jb20vY2hhbmdpbmctYW1lcmljYS9lbnJpY2htZW50L2VkdWNhdGlvbi81Mjg3NzAtZXhwZXJ0cy10ZWxsLWJpZGVuLXRvLXRlYWNoLTUwLW1pbGxpb24tYW1lcmljYW7SAXRodHRwczovL3RoZWhpbGwuY29tL2NoYW5naW5nLWFtZXJpY2EvZW5yaWNobWVudC9lZHVjYXRpb24vNTI4NzcwLWV4cGVydHMtdGVsbC1iaWRlbi10by10ZWFjaC01MC1taWxsaW9uLWFtZXJpY2FuP2FtcA?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen>
Not all American schools teach students about climate change and its effects on their lives. An open letter from two former secretaries of education asks the ...
The Hill
21 hours ago

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Wildfire Smoke Is Poisoning California’s Kids. Some Pay a Higher Price. <https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/26/climate/california-smoke-children-health.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage>
Fires are making the state’s air more dangerous. How much that hurts depends largely on where you live and how much money your family has. <https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/26/climate/california-smoke-children-health.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage>

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/26/climate/california-smoke-children-health.html?

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Mapping the health threat of wildfires under climate change in US West
YALE SCHOOL OF FORESTRY & ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES
Public Release: 15-Aug-2016

A surge in major wildfire events in the US West as a consequence of climate change will expose tens of millions of Americans to high levels of air pollution in the coming decades, according to a new Yale-led study conducted with collaborators from Harvard.

JOURNAL
Climatic Change
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1762-6 <http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1762-6>

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Many Californians Being Left Without Homeowners Insurance Due to Wildfire Risk <https://news.google.com/articles/CBMiQGh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lmluc3VyYW5jZWpvdXJuYWwuY29tL25ld3Mvd2VzdC8yMDIwLzEyLzA0LzU5Mjc4OC5odG3SAQA?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen>
Acquiring home insurance has long been a mundane but necessary chore. In California, for hundreds of thousands of residents, it's turned into a
Insurance Journal

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Climate crisis to triple flooding threat for low-income US homes by 2050 <https://news.google.com/articles/CBMidWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnRoZWd1YXJkaWFuLmNvbS9lbnZpcm9ubWVudC8yMDIwL2RlYy8wMS9jbGltYXRlLWNyaXNpcy10cmlwbGUtZmxvb2RpbmctdGhyZWF0LWxvdy1pbmNvbWUtdXMtaG9tZXMtYnktMjA1MNIBdWh0dHBzOi8vYW1wLnRoZWd1YXJkaWFuLmNvbS9lbnZpcm9ubWVudC8yMDIwL2RlYy8wMS9jbGltYXRlLWNyaXNpcy10cmlwbGUtZmxvb2RpbmctdGhyZWF0LWxvdy1pbmNvbWUtdXMtaG9tZXMtYnktMjA1MA?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen>
A new study has found that affordable housing in New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey and California will be at particular risk.
The Guardian

Rising seas predicted to flood thousands of affordable housing units by 2050 <https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEMQqM5P9kEA5cXBZqXHbewcqFggEKg4IACoGCAow3O8nMMqOBjD38Ak?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen>
The number of affordable housing units vulnerable to flooding could triple by 2050 as the planet heats up, new research finds. Climate change is pushing up sea ...
The Verge <https://news.google.com/publications/CAAqBggKMNzvJzDKjgY?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen>

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Science, Oct 20, 2020

Dust Bowl 2.0? Rising Great Plains dust levels stir concerns
Roland Pease 
<<https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/dust-bowl-20-rising-great-plains-dust-levels-stir-concerns <https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/10/dust-bowl-20-rising-great-plains-dust-levels-stir-concerns>>>

Excerpts : Earlier this month, a storm front swept across the Great Plains of the United States, plowing up a wall of dust that could be seen from space, stretching from eastern Colorado into Nebraska and Kansas. It was a scene straight from the Dust Bowl of the 1930s, when farmers regularly saw soil stripped from their fields and whipped up into choking blizzards of dust.

Better get used to it. According to a new study, dust storms on the Great Plains have become more common and more intense in the past 20 years, because of more frequent droughts in the region and an expansion of croplands. “Our results suggest a tipping point is approaching, where the conditions of the 1930s could return,” says Gannet Haller, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Utah who led the study.

The dust storms not only threaten to remove soil nutrients and decrease agricultural productivity, but also present a health hazard, says Andy Lambert, a co-author on the study and a meteorologist at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory in Monterey, California. The dust contains ultrafine particles that can penetrate cells in the lungs and cause lung and heart disease.

“We really are at the point where droughts could again be as bad as in the 1930s,” says Kasey Bolles, an expert on the Dust Bowl at Columbia University’s Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and a co-author on the Science study.

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40 Percent of World's Plants at Risk of Extinction, New Report Finds <https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEDZe-bGMmCbFiAVHFUMl27kqMwgEKioIACIQVtxBmyfa_mqpa0goyYax6CoUCAoiEFbcQZsn2v5qqWtIKMmGsegw-uHVBg?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen>
A grim new assessment of the world's flora and fungi has found that two-fifths of its species are at risk of extinction as humans encroach on the natural world, ...

The report highlights that plants are crucial to sustaining life as they provide food, medicine, raw materials, fuel and food. And yet, the report notes, "Never before has the biosphere, the thin layer of life we call home, been under such intensive and urgent threat. Deforestation rates have soared as we have cleared land to feed ever-more people, global emissions are disrupting the climate system, new pathogens threaten our crops and our health, illegal trade has eradicated entire plant populations, and non-native species are outcompeting local floras. Biodiversity <http://www.ecowatch.com/tag/biodiversity> is being lost – locally, regionally and globally."

The new report, State of the World's Plants and Fungi 2020 <https://www.kew.org/sites/default/files/2020-09/Kew%20State%20of%20the%20Worlds%20Plants%20and%20Fungi.pdf>, and an accompanying short video <https://youtu.be/fTHKjZyuUos> were published by Royal Botanic Gardens Kew, and depict an international effort from hundreds of scientists from 42 countries 

EcoWatch <https://news.google.com/publications/CAAiEFbcQZsn2v5qqWtIKMmGsegqFAgKIhBW3EGbJ9r-aqlrSCjJhrHo?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen>

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Climate ‘apocalypse’ fears stopping people having children – study
Survey of 600 people finds some parents regret having offspring for same reason
<<https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/nov/27/climate-apocalypse-fears-stopping-people-having-children-study>>

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Portuguese youngsters clear major hurdle in European climate lawsuit <https://news.google.com/articles/CBMibWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm5iY25ld3MuY29tL25ld3Mvd29ybGQvcG9ydHVndWVzZS15b3VuZ3N0ZXJzLWNsZWFyLW1ham9yLWh1cmRsZS1ldXJvcGVhbi1jbGltYXRlLWxhd3N1aXQtbjEyNDkyMjLSASxodHRwczovL3d3dy5uYmNuZXdzLmNvbS9uZXdzL2FtcC9uY25hMTI0OTIyMg?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen>
The European Court of Human Rights gave the green light to six Portuguese youth applicants in a climate action against 33 countries.
NBC News

Does Climate Change Violate Children's Human Rights? A European Court May Soon Decide <https://news.google.com/articles/CBMiPmh0dHBzOi8vdGltZS5jb20vNTkxNjM2Mi9jbGltYXRlLWNoYW5nZS1odW1hbi1yaWdodHMtcG9ydHVnYWwv0gFHaHR0cHM6Ly90aW1lLmNvbS81OTE2MzYyL2NsaW1hdGUtY2hhbmdlLWh1bWFuLXJpZ2h0cy1wb3J0dWdhbC8_YW1wPXRydWU?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen>
Here's what to know about a lawsuit alleging that climate change violates the human rights of six Portuguese children and young adults.
TIME

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 “The effects of climate change will be ‘severe, pervasive and irreversible’ within the next few decades if countries burn more than just one-quarter of the fossil fuel reserves already found, according to a major new U.N. draft report”

“It warns that companies and governments have ‘identified reserves of these [fossil] fuels at least four times larger than could safely be burned if global warming is to be kept to a tolerable level.’ In short, 75 percent of the fossil fuels must remain in the ground to forestall devastating impacts.“

Newsweek Aug 26,2014

<<http://www.newsweek.com/leaked-un-report-climate-change-impacts-already-inevitable-may-soon-be-irreversible-266860>>

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Biden plan to end U.S. fossil fuel subsidies faces big challenges <https://news.google.com/articles/CBMikAFodHRwczovL3d3dy5yZXV0ZXJzLmNvbS9hcnRpY2xlL3VzLXVzYS1iaWRlbi1mb3NzaWxmdWVsLXN1YnNpZGllcy9iaWRlbi1wbGFuLXRvLWVuZC11LXMtZm9zc2lsLWZ1ZWwtc3Vic2lkaWVzLWZhY2VzLWJpZy1jaGFsbGVuZ2VzLWlkVVNLQk4yOEI0VDLSATRodHRwczovL21vYmlsZS5yZXV0ZXJzLmNvbS9hcnRpY2xlL2FtcC9pZFVTS0JOMjhCNFQy?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen>
President-elect Joe Biden's promise to end U.S. fossil fuel subsidies worth billions of dollars a year for drillers and miners could be hard to keep due to ...
Reuters

Republicans Remain Opposed to Any Policies That Would Reduce Fossil-Fuel Use’ <https://news.google.com/articles/CBMiZGh0dHBzOi8vbnltYWcuY29tL2ludGVsbGlnZW5jZXIvMjAyMC8xMS9yZXB1YmxpY2Fucy1jbGltYXRlLWNoYW5nZS1iaWRlbi1zY2llbmNlLWdyZWVuaG91c2UtZ2FzLmh0bWzSAWhodHRwczovL255bWFnLmNvbS9pbnRlbGxpZ2VuY2VyL2FtcC8yMDIwLzExL3JlcHVibGljYW5zLWNsaW1hdGUtY2hhbmdlLWJpZGVuLXNjaWVuY2UtZ3JlZW5ob3VzZS1nYXMuaHRtbA?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen>
Joe Biden has promised aggressive action to curtail greenhouse-gas emissions. Republicans say they may do something, but not if it means reducing fossil-fuel ...
New York Magazine

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Excerpt : Their study does not mean that people can let their guard down when it comes to addressing climate change, the authors stress. No matter the scenario, the only way to get to net zero emissions as a society is to dramatically reduce carbon dioxide emissions from our energy sources.
"We're still affecting the climate and the challenge of reducing emissions is as hard as ever," said Pielke Jr. "Just because it's not the worst-case scenario doesn't mean that the problem goes away."
https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-11/uoca-wep113020.php <https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-11/uoca-wep113020.php>

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“The financial world is beginning to reckon with a hard truth: Climate change poses a clear threat to the entire U.S. financial system.

“This summer, some of the country’s largest investors sent public letters <https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/21/climate/investors-climate-threat-regulators.html> to the heads of financial regulatory agencies, asking them to take up the mantle on climate change as a systemic financial risk. California Controller Betty Yee penned an op-ed <https://www.barrons.com/articles/financial-regulators-need-to-lead-on-climate-change-51594220755> urging for ‘leadership from every U.S. financial regulator to transition to a resilient, sustainable, low-carbon economy and avoid a climate-fueled financial collapse’.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/19/climate-change-threatens-banks-far-more-than-theyre-disclosing.html <https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/19/climate-change-threatens-banks-far-more-than-theyre-disclosing.html>

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“The most painful and expensive way to deal with global climate change will be to ignore it until something happens that elicits powerful public demands for immediate and Draconian action.”
 
Jonathan Lash. “As the earth heats up. “  
Journal of Commerce, August 16, 1996.

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Going 100% renewable power means a lot of dirty mining

Payal Sampat, the mining director at Earthworks, said recycling and technological innovation could go a long way toward reducing the demand for rare metals, but cautioned that still more needs to be done. “We’re not going to tech fix our way out of this,” she said. “It’s going to require more meaningful policy changes that fundamentally reduce the overall demand.”

<<https://grist.org/article/report-going-100-renewable-power-means-a-lot-of-dirty-mining/>>

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“The most penetrating criticism I’ve seen of renewable energy—such as wind,  solar, hydropower, hydrogen and long-life battery technology— is that it’s being promoted at massive scale to reassure us that we can go on as before, with little if any change of lifestyle, no move beyond our comfort zones. That’s a comforting view, one that we’d all love to be true. And yet, it raises a big and uncomfortable question. Can we mine, baby, mine, to ensure no reduction of living standards, no uncomfortable change of lifestyle?”  

Lance Olsen
<<https://mountainjournal.org/renewable-energy-solves-one-problem-but-creates-another <https://mountainjournal.org/renewable-energy-solves-one-problem-but-creates-another>>> possibly with embellishments by the editor that may not reflect my opinion

Or here
<<https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/05/21/renewable-energy-the-switch-from-drill-baby-drill-to-mine-baby-mine/ <https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/05/21/renewable-energy-the-switch-from-drill-baby-drill-to-mine-baby-mine/>>>  Where the editor published it as I wrote it and the mistakes all mine
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“Now is the right time to establish recycling plants for rare earth elements and other non-renewable natural resources used in renewable energy systems such as lithium. More importantly, it is necessary to reduce our consumption of natural resources. If we go on with mindless consumerism, we will only shift the problem from one natural resource to another.”

<<https://theconversation.com/lithium-is-finite-but-clean-technology-relies-on-such-non-renewable-resources-109630 <https://theconversation.com/lithium-is-finite-but-clean-technology-relies-on-such-non-renewable-resources-109630>>>

==================================

 “The effects of climate change will be ‘severe, pervasive and irreversible’ within the next few decades if countries burn more than just one-quarter of the fossil fuel reserves already found, according to a major new U.N. draft report”

“It warns that companies and governments have ‘identified reserves of these [fossil] fuels at least four times larger than could safely be burned if global warming is to be kept to a tolerable level.’ In short, 75 percent of the fossil fuels must remain in the ground to forestall devastating impacts.“

Newsweek Aug 26,2014

<<http://www.newsweek.com/leaked-un-report-climate-change-impacts-already-inevitable-may-soon-be-irreversible-266860>>

===================================

“I believe humanity is making risky bets in the climate casino. ….  But it is always possible that humanity will wake up .... If that happened, fossil fuel reserves would indeed be stranded. Investors beware: the risk of that cannot be zero.”

Martin Wolf. A climate fix would ruin investors.

Financial Times. June 17, 2014

<<http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/5a2356a4-f58e-11e3-afd3-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3C5hyxJyx>>

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