[MCN] The heat is coming to get you, it isn't nice, and David Roberts has the maturity -- and courage -- to tell it like it is

[Lance Olsen]

Vox January 3, 2019

The sad truth about our boldest climate target
Limiting global warming to 1.5˚C is almost certainly not going to happen. Admitting that need not end hope.

By David Roberts <https://www.vox.com/authors/david-roberts>@drvox <https://www.twitter.com/drvox>david at vox.com <mailto:david at vox.com> 
https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/1/3/21045263/climate-change-1-5-degrees-celsius-target-ipcc <https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/1/3/21045263/climate-change-1-5-degrees-celsius-target-ipcc>

Excerpts

If we had peaked and begun steadily reducing emissions 20 years ago, …..

We didn’t, though. …..Humanity has put more CO2 in the atmosphere since 1988, when climate scientist James Hansen first testified to Congress about the danger of climate change, than it did in all of history prior.

Temperature is almost certainly going to rise more than 1.5˚C.

A lot of climate activists are extremely averse to saying so. In fact, many of them will be angry with me for saying so, because they believe that admitting to this looming probability carries with it all sorts of dire consequences and implications. Lots of people in the climate world — not just activists and politicians, but scientists, journalists, and everyday concerned citizens — have talked themselves into a kind of forced public-facing optimism, despite the fears that dog their private thoughts. They believe that without that public optimism, the fragile effort to battle climate change will collapse completely.

It looks like we have already locked in levels of climate change that scientists predict will be devastating. I don’t like it, I don’t “accept” it, but I see it, and I reject the notion that I should be silent about it for PR purposes.

I know from conversations over the years that many people see that tragedy, and feel it, but given the perpetually heightened partisan tensions around climate change, they are leery to give it voice. They worry that it will lend fuel to the forces of denial and delay, that they are morally obliged to provide cheer <https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/12/5/16732772/emotion-climate-change-communication>.

I just don’t think that’s healthy. To really grapple with climate change, we have to understand it, and more than that, take it on board emotionally.

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/1/3/21045263/climate-change-1-5-degrees-celsius-target-ipcc <https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2020/1/3/21045263/climate-change-1-5-degrees-celsius-target-ipcc>


&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&.  1970 

"The greatest disturbances of which we are aware are those now being introduced by man himself. Since his tampering with the biological and geochemical balances may ultimately prove injurious -- even fatal -- to himself, he must understand them better than today."

Bert Bolin. "The Carbon Cycle."

Scientific American, September 1970

&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&&& 47 years later 

 Is there really still a chance for staying below 1.5 °C global warming?

Stefan Rahmstorf. September 2017

"We still live in a world on a path to 3 or 4 °C global warming, waiting to finally turn the tide of rising emissions. At this point, debating whether we have 0.2 °C more or less to go until we reach 1.5 °C is an academic discussion at best, a distraction at worst. The big issue is that we need to see falling emissions globally very very soon if we even want to stay well below 2 °C. That was agreed as the weaker goal in Paris in a consensus by 195 nations. It is high time that everyone backs this up with actions, not just words.”

<<http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2017/09/is-there-really-still-a-chance-for-staying-below-1-5-c-global-warming/ <http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2017/09/is-there-really-still-a-chance-for-staying-below-1-5-c-global-warming/>>>
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