[MCN] Why so much fear and fuss over the Green New Deal? Who's boat does it actually rock?

[Lance Olsen]

https://mountainjournal.org/green-new-deal-faces-uphill-fight-in-wyoming-and-montana-coal-country <https://mountainjournal.org/green-new-deal-faces-uphill-fight-in-wyoming-and-montana-coal-country>



**************** A tale of  2 done deals    **********************

#1 . EXTINCTION AS A DONE DEAL, FELT AFTER A DELAY
Extinction as a done deal has been described in the language of “extinction debt.” When cast in this language, the “debt’ isn’t “paid off” until — after a delay, or lag time — a species or community of species is finally gone. 
Many — already available -- studies have sorted through the evidence on extinction debt, tracing extinction back to actions/conditions/policies that set the done deal in motion. 

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PNAS April 30, 2013 
Europe’s other debt crisis caused by the long legacy of future extinctions 
https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/110/18/7342.full.pdf <https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/110/18/7342.full.pdf>
Stefan Dullinger et al

Keywords
extinction debt | socioeconomic history | lag effect
Abstract
https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/110/18/7342.full.pdf <https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/110/18/7342.full.pdf>
Rapid economic development in the past century has translated into severe pressures on species survival as a result of increasing land-use change, environmental pollution, and the spread of invasive alien species. However, though the impact of these pressures on biodiversity is substantial, it could be seriously underestimated if population declines of plants and animals lag behind contemporary environmental degradation. Here, we test for such a delay in impact by relating numbers of threatened species appearing on national red lists to historical and contemporary levels of socioeconomic pressures. Across 22 European countries, the proportions of vascular plants, bryophytes, mammals, reptiles, dragonflies, and grasshoppers facing medium-to-high extinction risks are more closely matched to indicators of socioeconomic pressures (i.e., human population density, per capita gross domestic product, and a measure of land use intensity) from the early or mid-, rather than the late, 20th century. We conclude that, irrespective of recent conservation actions, large- scale risks to biodiversity lag considerably behind contemporary levels of socioeconomic pressures. The negative impact of human activities on current biodiversity will not become fully realized until several decades into the future. Mitigating extinction risks might be an even greater challenge if temporal delays mean many threatened species might already be destined toward extinction. 

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#2. HOTTER HEAT AS A DONE DEAL, FELT AFTER A DELAY

Environmental Research Letters Published 2 December 2014
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124002/pdf <https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124002/pdf>

Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission
Katharine L Ricke and Ken Caldeira

50,622 Total downloads
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124002/pdf <https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124002/pdf>
Abstract

It is known that carbon dioxide emissions cause the Earth to warm, but no previous study has focused on examining how long it takes to reach maximum warming following a particular CO2 emission. Using conjoined results of carbon-cycle and physical-climate model intercomparison projects (Taylor et al 2012, Joos et al 2013), we find the median time between an emission and maximum warming is 10.1 years, with a 90% probability range of 6.6–30.7 years. We evaluate uncertainties in timing and amount of warming, partitioning them into three contributing factors: carbon cycle, climate sensitivity and ocean thermal inertia. If uncertainty in any one factor is reduced to zero without reducing uncertainty in the other factors, the majority of overall uncertainty remains. Thus, narrowing uncertainty in century-scale warming depends on narrowing uncertainty in all contributing factors. Our results indicate that benefit from avoided climate damage from avoided CO2 emissions will be manifested within the lifetimes of people who acted to avoid that emission. While such avoidance could be expected to benefit future generations, there is potential for emissions avoidance to provide substantial benefit to current generations.






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