[MCN] Just how "sustainable" are our forests, lumber supply, home construction, and related jobs?

[Lance Olsen]

Helena – Lewis and Clark National Forest FEIS, 2020 Forest Plan Chapter 3, Part 2
<<https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/fseprd743372.pdf <https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/fseprd743372.pdf>>>

Page 247
It is also possible that continued drought (and/or associated large disturbances) may cause shifts to nonforested vegetation types on some of the driest lands, and thus the lands suitable for timber production and/or volume outputs could decrease.

Page 284 
Future warm and dry climates, as well as disturbances, may pose risks to forests in terms of growth, mortality, and regeneration potential; such factors could affect timber outputs. 
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Helena – Lewis and Clark National Forest FEIS, 2020 Forest Plan Chapter 3, Part 1
<<https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/fseprd743366.pdf <https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/fseprd743366.pdf>>>

The risk of changing regeneration dynamics is not limited to dry forests. Several studies have found that post-fire seedling establishment of moist and subalpine forests may decline due to drought and wildfire (Andrus et al., 2018; Harvey, Donato, & Turner, 2016; Stevens-Rumann et al., 2017). 
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“Serious thresholds are crossed when forests convert to vegetation types without trees... ”
 
Constance I. Millar and Nathan L. Stephenson. 
Temperate forest health in an era of emerging megadisturbance. Science  21 August 2015
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Helena-Lewis and Clark National Forest Revised Forest Plan 2020,FEIS, Chapter 3, Part 2
<<https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/fseprd743372.pdf <https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/fseprd743372.pdf>>>

“Ultimately, the U.S. market demand for lumber is a derivative for the demand for construction of residential and commercial structures. As a derived demand, lumber markets tend to reflect shifts in national housing construction rates. Across subsectors, residential construction in particular is the single largest consumer of lumber nationwide” p.240
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“Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation.”

Nolan et al. Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change. 
Science 31 August 2018 



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