[MCN] Fossil fuel subsidies, drought, and fire

[Lance Olsen]

PNAS April 6, 2021
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2011969118 <https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2011969118>
The producer benefits of implicit fossil fuel subsidies in the United States

Matthew J. Kotchen
OPEN ACCESS pdf 
https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/118/14/e2011969118.full.pdf <https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/118/14/e2011969118.full.pdf>

Significance

There are real and substantial financial implications to fossil fuel producers of policies that seek to correct market failures brought about by climate change, adverse health effects from local pollution, and inefficient transportation. The producer benefits of the existing policy regime in the United States are estimated at $62 billion annually during normal economic conditions. This translates into large amounts for individual companies due to the relatively small number of fossil fuel producers. This paper provides company-specific estimates, and these numbers clarify why many in the fossil fuel industry oppose more efficient regulatory reform; they may also shape the way policymakers view the prospects for additional subsidies going forward.

Abstract

This paper estimates the financial benefits accruing to fossil fuel producers (i.e., the producer incidence) that arise because of implicit fossil fuel subsidies in the United States. The analysis takes account of coal, natural gas, gasoline, and diesel, along with the implicit subsidies due to externalized environmental damages, public health effects, and transportation-related costs. The direct benefit to fossil fuel producers across all four fuels is estimated at $62 billion per year, a sum calculated due to the higher price that suppliers receive because of inefficient pricing compared to the counterfactual scenario where environmental and public health externalities are internalized. A significant portion of these benefits accrue to relatively few companies, and specific estimates are provided for companies with the largest production. The financial benefit because of unpriced costs borne by society is comparable to 18% of net income from continuing domestic operations for the median natural gas and oil producer in 2017–2018, and it exceeds net income for the majority of coal producers. The results clarify what the domestic fossil fuel industry has at stake financially when it comes to policies that seek to address climate change, adverse health effects from local pollution, and inefficient transportation.

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Western U.S. may be entering its most severe drought in modern history <https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEAJFQ14XU1T1rmWcTxtOsrIqGQgEKhAIACoHCAowyNj6CjDyiPICMJyFxQU?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen>
Extreme drought across the Western U.S. has become as reliable as a summer afternoon thunderstorm in Florida. And news headlines about drought in the ...
CBS News <https://news.google.com/publications/CAAqBwgKMMjY-gow8ojyAg?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen>
3 hours ago

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Environmental Research Communications <https://iopscience.iop.org/journal/2515-7620>, Published 6 April 2021

THE FOLLOWING ARTICLE IS
OPEN ACCESS
A global assessment of wildfire potential under climate change utilizing Keetch-Byram drought index and land cover classifications

Colin S Gannon1 and Nik C Steinberg1
 <https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2515-7620/abd836/pdf>
Article PDF <https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2515-7620/abd836/pdf>
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2515-7620/abd836/pdf <https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2515-7620/abd836/pdf>/2515-7620/abd836/pdf
134 Total downloads

Abstract

In recent years, climate change has caused wildfires across the globe to generally become larger and more severe, creating new challenges for public health, housing and infrastructure, and natural resource management. As the characteristics of wildfires change, it is critical to understand where emerging risks for human and natural systems are most profound. We assess how future wildfire potential, defined here as the meteorological conditions and the availability of burnable vegetation types conducive to wildfire occurrence, are projected to change in the future. To achieve this, we combine modelled temperature and precipitation to calculate the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) as a proxy for soil moisture deficit and overlay a weighting factor representing burnable vegetation derived from land cover classifications. Through our analysis of daily data at both mid- and end-of-century, we find that climate-related changes, such as increasing temperatures and drying patterns, will elevate wildfire potential globally, both in terms of severity of maximum daily KBDI and frequency of high KBDI days. We find that regions which have recently endured major fire events, including the western United States, Australia, and the Amazon, could experience increases in maximum KBDI of up to 100 in places, with more than 60 additional days of high KBDI by mid-century, compared to the historical baseline. Additionally, at the end-of-the-century, regions across much of Africa, Central America, and Southern Asia are projected to emerge as wildfire hotspots. While the occurrence of wildfires may still be rare today in many regions, we find that climatological trends are projected to increase wildfire potential for much of the globe, creating new risks for some, and raising the challenge for already wildfire-prone communities to effectively manage forests and protect people and critical resources.

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“We live in a strange world. Where we think we can buy or build our way out of a crisis that has been created by buying and building things.”

Greta Thunberg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bFvXc14g3AQ

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