[MCN] Another weekly update on climate issues and trends

[Lance Olsen]

“ …. one aspect of climate science that’s more prominent in this report than previously is the concept of climate tipping points, which are mentioned 97 times in this report <https://twitter.com/DrRobBellamy/status/1424673605355515906>, compared to 27 times in the previous assessment dating back to 2013.

“‘The IPCC is strongly talking about tipping points,’ Stephan Singer, a senior climate advisor with Climate Action Network International, told Inside Climate News. <https://insideclimatenews.org/news/09082021/global-climate-panels-report-no-part-of-the-planet-will-be-spared-ipcc-science-cop-extremes/> 

“ ‘We can’t rule out significant forest diebacks and ice sheets falling apart, or other things that can feed back and make the warming even worse.”

" We’re playing Russian roulette with five bullets in the gun.’ ”

https://grist.org/science/un-ipcc-climate-report-tipping-points-melting-permafrost/ <https://grist.org/science/un-ipcc-climate-report-tipping-points-melting-permafrost/>

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The Washington Post August 13, 2021

‘This is a very dangerous combination’: New study says wildfire smoke linked to increased covid cases, deaths
Harvard University researchers studied more than 90 counties in the West that were hit hard by wildfires in 2020.

By Joshua Partlow <https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/joshua-partlow/>
Yesterday at 4:35 p.m. EDT

1st 3 paragraphs

In a new study published on Friday, a team of researchers at Harvard University found evidence that exposure to elevated levels of fine particle pollution found in wildfire smoke may have led to thousands more cases of covid-19 and more deaths among those who tested positive for the coronavirus <https://www.washingtonpost.com/coronavirus/?itid=lk_inline_manual_2>.

In some counties in California and Washington state hit particularly hard by wildfires last year, the study, published in the journal Science Advances, concluded that nearly 20 percent of the covid-19 cases were linked to elevated levels of wildfire smoke. The researchers also found that an even higher percentage of deaths could be linked to wildfire smoke in certain counties.

“Clearly, we see that, overall, this is a very dangerous combination,” Francesca Dominici, a professor of biostatistics at Harvard and one of the authors of the study, said of the interplay between smoke and covid-19. “It’s a really scary thing as we continue to face these wildfires all around the world.

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Greenhouse gas emissions must peak within 4 years, says leaked UN report
Group of scientists release draft IPCC report as they fear it will be watered down by governments

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/aug/12/greenhouse-gas-emissions-must-peak-within-4-years-says-leaked-un-report <https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/aug/12/greenhouse-gas-emissions-must-peak-within-4-years-says-leaked-un-report>

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The UN climate report pins hopes on carbon removal technologies that barely exist <https://news.google.com/articles/CBMihgFodHRwczovL3d3dy50ZWNobm9sb2d5cmV2aWV3LmNvbS8yMDIxLzA4LzA5LzEwMzE0NTAvdGhlLXVuLWNsaW1hdGUtcmVwb3J0LXBpbnMtaG9wZXMtb24tY2FyYm9uLXJlbW92YWwtdGVjaG5vbG9naWVzLXRoYXQtYmFyZWx5LWV4aXN0L9IBigFodHRwczovL3d3dy50ZWNobm9sb2d5cmV2aWV3LmNvbS8yMDIxLzA4LzA5LzEwMzE0NTAvdGhlLXVuLWNsaW1hdGUtcmVwb3J0LXBpbnMtaG9wZXMtb24tY2FyYm9uLXJlbW92YWwtdGVjaG5vbG9naWVzLXRoYXQtYmFyZWx5LWV4aXN0L2FtcC8?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen>
MIT Technology Review

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Get your smile here :

https://www.politico.com/cartoons/2021/08/13/the-nations-cartoonists-on-the-week-in-politics-000248?slide=2 <https://www.politico.com/cartoons/2021/08/13/the-nations-cartoonists-on-the-week-in-politics-000248?slide=2>

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How extreme weather is making food more expensive <https://news.google.com/articles/CAIiEJnwxfl3un3mJEOor_nrHC0qGQgEKhAIACoHCAowocv1CjCSptoCMPrTpgU?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen>
CNN <https://news.google.com/publications/CAAqBwgKMKHL9QowkqbaAg?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen>

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“The probability of simultaneous drought across multiple regions is increasing”, explains Franziska Gaupp of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in Laxenburg, Austria. “Concurrent crop losses in major production regions can cause price spikes and have cascading effects on food access, famine and food riots.” 

OPEN ACCESS pdf
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01111-9.pdf <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01111-9.pdf>

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The Washington Post Aug. 11, 2021
Where America’s developed areas are growing: ‘Way off into the horizon’

By Zach Levitt <https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/zach-levitt/> and Jess Eng <https://www.washingtonpost.com/people/jess-eng/>
 
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/interactive/2021/land-development-urban-growth-maps/? <https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/interactive/2021/land-development-urban-growth-maps/?>

Opening sentence : “Between 2001 and 2019, the built-up landscape of America — buildings, roads and other structures — has expanded into previously undeveloped areas ... “

Concluding sentence : “You have more growth in some of these areas and then you have the incredibly uncertain impact of climate change … it’s either not good or very bad.”

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Climate change both decreases and increases the well-known cooling effect of volcanic eruptions

“They found that for large eruptions like Mount Pinatubo, which typically occur once or twice per century, climate change will cause the plumes to rise higher and the aerosols to spread faster over the globe, resulting in a cooling effect amplified by 15%. Changes in ocean temperatures are expected to further amplify the cooling, and the melting of ice sheets is also projected to increase volcanic eruptions frequency and size in places such as Iceland.

“However, for moderate-sized eruptions such as the 2011 Nabro eruption in Eritrea, which typically occur on a yearly basis, the effect will be reduced by about 75% under a high-end warming scenario. This is because the height of the tropopause – the boundary between the troposphere and the stratosphere above it – is predicted to increase, making it harder for volcanic plumes to reach the stratosphere.”

https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/924989 <https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/924989>

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Will climate change outpace species adaptation? Species evolve heat tolerance more slowly than cold tolerance <https://news.google.com/articles/CBMiPmh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnNjaWVuY2VkYWlseS5jb20vcmVsZWFzZXMvMjAyMS8wMy8yMTAzMDQxMzM0NTcuaHRt0gEA?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen>
Science Daily
Mar 4

 The evolution of critical thermal limits of life on Earth. Nature Communications
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-21263-8 <http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21263-8>

OPEN ACCESS pdf
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21263-8.pdf <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21263-8.pdf>

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“For example, from 1986 to 1988, a severe drought in India ... loss of food drove elephants to new human-dominated areas, which led to rapid increases in crop damage and fatal attacks on people (3). The same drought event in India saw a marked increase in livestock losses to lions, and human fatalities from lion attacks rose by more than 600% in one region to 6.7 deaths per year following the drought (3). More recently in 2018, a prolonged drought in Botswana saw some of the highest incidences of livestock depredations by large carnivores on record, compounding drought-induced food and economic insecurity in agricultural and pastoral communities (4).” 

Human-wildlife conflict under climate change 
Climate change is intensifying conflicts between people and wildlife 
Science July 30, 2021

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July was Earth's hottest month on record, NOAA says <https://news.google.com/articles/CBMiZGh0dHBzOi8vd3d3Lm5iY25ld3MuY29tL3NjaWVuY2UvZW52aXJvbm1lbnQvanVseS13YXMtZWFydGgtcy1ob3R0ZXN0LW1vbnRoLXJlY29yZC1ub2FhLXNheXMtbjEyNzY3NjTSASxodHRwczovL3d3dy5uYmNuZXdzLmNvbS9uZXdzL2FtcC9uY25hMTI3Njc2NA?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen>
NBC News

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"Precipitation is just the supply side," said study coauthor Jason Smerdon, a Lamont-Doherty paleoclimatologist. "Temperature is on the demand side, the part that dries things out."

"If we don't see it coming in stronger in, say, the next 10 years, we might have to wonder whether we are right," said Marvel. "But all the models are projecting that you should see unprecedented drying soon, in a lot of places."

<<https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-05/eiac-ssf042919.php <https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-05/eiac-ssf042919.php>>>

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 “I just want it to be clear that the mainstream environmental movement has been asking very little of people for decades.”

“There’s no element of, ‘We are in an emergency. We all need to do more than what we’re doing.” 

Extinction Rebellion’s radical philosophy
July 22 2019
https://thinkprogress.org/the-radical-philosophy-of-extinction-rebellion-5857d3955b57/ <https://thinkprogress.org/the-radical-philosophy-of-extinction-rebellion-5857d3955b57/>


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A recent Ambio article by some heavyweights in climate sets out the situation well enough. 

A team including the likes of Will Steffen, Paul Crutzen, Veerabhadren Ramathan, Johan Rockstrom, Marten Scheffer and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber begin the abstract of their article by saying “Over the past century, the total material wealth of humanity has been enhanced …”  

They end it saying,“we risk driving the Earth System onto a trajectory toward more hostile states from which we cannot easily return.”

Their analysis is echoed across the scientists side of the situation. But it doesn’t take a scientist to get the drift of what’s going on. 

Liam Denning is former investment banker, former editor of one of the Wall Street Journal’s most closely read columns —Heard on the Street — and a former columnist for Financial Times. Writing about need for the Green New Deal, Denning has come to the conclusion that, “We have built our standard of living on forms of energy that we now know pose a threat to our very existence,” and that, “this is a conversation that is long overdue — and necessarily begins with a shout, not a whisper.”

https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/02/14/heat-and-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it/ <https://www.counterpunch.org/2019/02/14/heat-and-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it/>

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“The emerging view that … tree species have rather inflexible damage thresholds, particularly in terms of water stress, is especially concerning." 

REVIEW 
Hanging by a thread? Forests and drought 

Timothy J. Brodribb, Jennifer Powers, Hervé Cochard, Brendan Choat

Science  April 2020 

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A core question: What is “resilience”?

2018 — “Resilience is a popular narrative for conservation and provides an opportunity to communicate optimism that ecosystems can recover and rebound from disturbances.” (Emily S. Darling and Isabelle M. Côté, Science, March 2, 2018). 

2014 — “Emerging from a wide range of disciplines, resilience in policy-making has often been based on the ability of systems to bounce back to normality, drawing on engineering concepts. This implies the return of the functions of an individual, household, community or ecosystem to previous conditions, with as little damage and disruption as possible following shocks and stresses”  (Tanner et al, Nature Climate Change,  December 18, 2014). 

1938 — Resilience. 1- The act or power of springing back to a former position or shape. 2. The quantity of work given back by a body that is compressed to a certain limit and then allowed to recover itself, as a spring under pressure suddenly relaxed.”  (Funk & Wagnall’s New Standard Dictionary of the English Language, vol.2, M-Z 1938




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