[MCN] Climate and the forests : Assessments from 2011, 2016, and 2018

[Lance Olsen]

"Our findings suggest a shift to novel fire–climate–vegetation relationships in Greater Yellowstone by midcentury because fire frequency and extent would be inconsistent with persistence of the current suite of conifer species. The predicted new fire regime would transform the flora, fauna, and ecosystem processes in this landscape"

Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st century

Anthony L. Westerling, Monica G. Turner, Erica A. H. Smithwick, William H. Romme, and Michael G. Ryan

PNAS August 9, 2011 108 (32) 13165-13170; first published July 25, 2011
https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/108/32/13165.full.pdf <https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/108/32/13165.full.pdf>

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“We contend that traditional approaches to forest conservation and management will be inadequate ... in the 21st century. New approaches ... acknowledge that change is inevitable and sometimes irreversible, and that maintenance of ecosystem services depends in part on novel ecosystems, i.e., species combinations with no analog in the past.”

Forest Ecology and Management Published - 15 Jan 2016
Review and synthesis 
Achievable future conditions as a framework for guiding forest conservation and management 
S.W. Golladay a,, K.L. Martin b, J.M. Vose b, D.N. Wear b, A.P. Covich c, R.J. Hobbs d, K.D. Klepzig e, G.E. Likens f,g, R.J. Naiman h, A.W. Shearer I 

https://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/pubs/ja/2016/ja_2016_martin_001.pdf <https://www.srs.fs.usda.gov/pubs/ja/2016/ja_2016_martin_001.pdf>

a J.W. Jones Ecological Research Center, 3988 Jones Center Dr, Newton, GA 39819, USA
b USDA Forest Service, Center for Integrated Forest Science and Synthesis, Research Triangle Park, Campus Box 8008, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695, USA 
c Odum School of Ecology, 140 E Green Str, University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
d School of Plant Biology, 35 Stirling Hwy, University of Western Australia (M090), Crawley, WA 6009, Australia
e USDA Forest Service, Southern Research Station, 200 WT Weaver Blvd, Asheville, NC 28804, USA
f Cary Institute of Ecosystem Sciences, 2801 Sharon Turnpike, PO Box AB, Millbrook, NY 12545, USA
g Department of Ecology and Environmental Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, USA
h School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington and CENRM, University of Western Australia, 133 Wilson Lane, Friday Harbor, WA 98250, USA
i School of Architecture – Center for Sustainable Development, The University of Texas at Austin, 310 Inner Campus Drive, B7500, Austin, TX 78712, USA 

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“Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation.”

Nolan et al. Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change. 
Science 31 August 2018
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/361/6405/920.full.pdf <https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/361/6405/920.full.pdf>















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