[MCN] 8 more climate-related clippings

[Lance Olsen]

 “The effects of climate change will be ‘severe, pervasive and irreversible’ within the next few decades if countries burn more than just one-quarter of the fossil fuel reserves already found, according to a major new U.N. draft report”

“In short, 75 percent of the fossil fuels must remain in the ground to forestall devastating impacts.“

Newsweek Aug 26,2014

http://www.newsweek.com/leaked-un-report-climate-change-impacts-already-inevitable-may-soon-be-irreversible-266860

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NOAA predicts 6th consecutive above-average hurricane season
Allison Chinchar, CNN Meteorologist
Updated 1:33 PM ET, Thu May 20, 2021
https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/20/weather/weather-hurricane-season-forecast-above-average/index.html <https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/20/weather/weather-hurricane-season-forecast-above-average/index.html>

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Greta Thunberg blasts John Kerry over global warming statement | TheHill <https://news.google.com/articles/CBMidmh0dHBzOi8vdGhlaGlsbC5jb20vY2hhbmdpbmctYW1lcmljYS9zdXN0YWluYWJpbGl0eS9jbGltYXRlLWNoYW5nZS81NTQxNjgtZ3JldGEtdGh1bmJlcmctYmxhc3RzLWpvaG4ta2Vycnktb3Zlci1nbG9iYWzSAXpodHRwczovL3RoZWhpbGwuY29tL2NoYW5naW5nLWFtZXJpY2Evc3VzdGFpbmFiaWxpdHkvY2xpbWF0ZS1jaGFuZ2UvNTU0MTY4LWdyZXRhLXRodW5iZXJnLWJsYXN0cy1qb2huLWtlcnJ5LW92ZXItZ2xvYmFsP2FtcA?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen>
The activist took to Twitter to voice her disapproval.
The Hill
May 18, 2021

“Thunberg took offense to Kerry's implication that people do not have to change their lifestyles or consumption habits to help fight climate change.”

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Extreme Heat Risks May Be Widely Underestimated and Sometimes Left Out of Major Climate Reports <https://insideclimatenews.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7c733794100bcc7e083a163f0&id=468b814fa8&e=ab190446cb>
BY: BOB BERWYN
New studies sharpen warnings for unlivable heat in the tropics, and nearly unthinkable extremes in major Northern Hemisphere cities. 

Read More <https://insideclimatenews.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7c733794100bcc7e083a163f0&id=893963efd6&e=ab190446cb>

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From Energy Transition to Energy Reduction
By Chris Smaje
My request to those working in the renewable energy industry is to ask themselves before undertaking any new project: “Will this help people to live a lower energy lifestyle than they previously did?” – which, regrettably, is not something we can say of the low carbon energy installed globally to date. If they can’t answer yes to the question, I’d request they dump the project and seek another one. It’s urgent.

<<https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020-05-20/from-energy-transition-to-energy-reduction/>>

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Environmental Research Letters Published 18 May 2021 
TOPICAL REVIEW  
Status consciousness in energy consumption: a systematic review
Anjali Ramakrishnan and Felix Creutzig

OPEN ACCESS pdf
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abf003/pdf <https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abf003/pdf>
664 Total downloads as of May 18

Abstract
Access to energy is a precondition for a decent standard of living. Some household decisions on energy consumption are however motivated to maintain or improve status, resulting in social zero-sum games, with environmentally harmful outcomes. Here, we review evidence relating status to energy consumption, elucidating consequential opportunities for climate change mitigation. To achieve this, we comprehensively collate and analyse existing published work that links status to household consumption decisions and behaviour across all end-use sectors, screening 2662 papers found with systematic search queries, identifying and fully reviewing 53 papers that comply with our criteria. We develop a systematic map of the literature and review quantitative and qualitative analysis relating energy end-use to status consumption. We identify 23 distinct (albeit some of them closely related) theories, with the literature most frequently referring to Veblen's theory of conspicuous consumption. We also detail estimations of status-related energy consumption and identify ten studies that quantitatively relate status to energy saving behaviour or decisions, and four studies that relate status to increased emissions. Status can explain up to 20% change in consumption levels or the willingness-to-pay for carbon reducing consumption. Surprisingly, we find that major status-related consumption decisions, such as for housing and big cars, are hardly captured by the literature that relates status consumption to energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. This is a considerable gap in the literature, omitting major sources of status related decisions with high carbon footprint. We conclude that framing energy saving behaviour as high status is a promising strategy for emission reduction. Progressive taxation of status items, such as floor space and vehicle size, can effectively internalize the positional externalities and signal social undesirability, but also reduce emissions.

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Warming Trends: What Happens Once We Stop Shopping, Nano-Devices That Turn Waste Heat into Power and How Your Netflix Binge Warms the Planet <https://insideclimatenews.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7c733794100bcc7e083a163f0&id=849ec27159&e=ab190446cb>
BY: KATELYN WEISBROD
A column highlighting climate-related studies, innovations, books, cultural events and other developments from the global warming frontier. 

Read More <https://insideclimatenews.us2.list-manage.com/track/click?u=7c733794100bcc7e083a163f0&id=76fd9cbb77&e=ab190446cb>

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NEWS RELEASE 14-MAY-2021
Few realistic scenarios left to limit global warming to 1.5°C
POTSDAM INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE IMPACT RESEARCH (PIK)

Article: Lila Warszawski, Elmar Kriegler, Timothy M. Lenton, Owen Gaffney, Daniela Jacob, Daniel Klingenfeld, Ryu Koide, María Máñez Costa, Dirk Messner, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Peter Schlosser, Kazuhiko Takeuchi, Sander van der Leeuw, Gail Whiteman, Johan Rockström (2021): All options, not silver bullets, needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C: a scenario appraisal. Environmental Research Letters [DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/abfeec]

Weblink to the article: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abfeec <https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/abfeec>
Abstract

Excerpt : If all climate mitigation levers are pulled, it may still be possible to limit global warming to 1.5°C in line with the Paris Agreement. The findings could help inform the heated climate policy debate. "The emission scenarios differ in their reliance on each of the five mitigation levers we looked at. Yet all scenarios that we find to be realistic pull at least several levers at challenging levels," says lead author Lila Warszawski from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). "None of the realistic scenarios relies on a single silver bullet."

All realistic scenarios pull all five levers

"The energy sector is key to the 1.5°C target of course, with on the one hand reduction of energy demand and on the other decarbonisation of energy use and production," says Warszawski. "Yet we can't do away with the other strategies. Removing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and for instance storing it underground also proves to be almost indispensable. Land use must become a net carbon sink, for instance by re-wetting peatlands or afforestation. Finally, emissions of the powerful greenhouse gas methane must be cut from animal production, but also from leaks in oil and gas extraction. This is quite a list."

A triple challenge for humanity

"This calls for an immediate acceleration of worldwide action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by all available means," says co-author Tim Lenton from Exeter University. "We need a sustainability revolution to rival the industrial revolution. Otherwise those most vulnerable to climate change are going to bear the brunt of missing the 1.5°C target. This is a system-wide challenge - piecemeal actions and rhetorical commitments are not going to be enough."

"Humanity is facing a triple challenge to stabilize global warming without significantly overshooting the 1.5°C commitment" says co-author Nebojsa Nakicenovic from the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA. "First is to half global emissions every decade requiring a herculean effort and a decarbonization revolution by phasing-out fossil energy, a quantum leap in efficiency and sufficiency, and climate-friendly behaviors and diets; second to pursue nature-friendly carbon removal through afforestation and land-use change; and third to assure safe operating of Earth systems that now remove half of global emissions from the atmosphere."

Unrealistically optimistic scenarios over-estimate e.g. carbon capture and storage potentials

Those scenarios classified by the analysis as unrealistically optimistic most frequently tend to over-estimate carbon capture and storage potentials, while others over-estimate energy consumption or reduction of non-CO2 greenhouse gases like methane. Still others make all too bold assumptions about dietary changes towards more plant-based food or about limited population growth.

The authors also took a closer look at the scenarios provided by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in 2018 and the one called 'Sky' produced by the Shell oil and gas company. Both scenarios foresee net emissions falling to zero globally as late as 2070. The researchers found that they do not lie within the corridor of carbon dioxide emissions over the next century that seems to offer a realistic chance of meeting the 1.5°C target. The Shell Sky scenario shows emissions levels in 2030 well above other scenarios considered in this study.

"The Shell Sky scenario has been called a pie in the sky, and that's indeed what it is," says co-author Gail Whiteman from the University of Exeter's Business School. "From a science perspective, this is quite clear. In the business community some still like it because it seems to offer, in comparison to other scenarios, a relatively easy way out of the climate crisis. Our analysis shows, however, that there are no easy ways out."

Irrespective of the specific climate target rapid emission reductions are key

"The necessary emissions reductions are hard to achieve, technically but also politically. They require unprecedented innovation of lifestyles and international cooperation," concludes co-author Johan Rockström from PIK. "I understand anyone who thinks we might fail the 1.5°C target. Also, it is clear that irrespective of the specific climate target rapidly implementing strong emission reductions is key now. Yet I think limiting warming at 1.5°C is worth just every effort because this would limit the risk of giving some tipping elements in the Earth system an additional push, such as ice sheets or ecosystems like the Amazon rainforest. As technical as this all might sound, it really is about assuring a safe climate future for all."

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" ‘Triage’ is a dirty word in some conservation circles, but like many dirty words, it describes something common. Whether they admit it or not, conservationists have long had to make decisions about what to save.

"As more and more admit it, open discussion about how the decisions are best made — by concentrating on particular species, or particular places, or absolute costs, or any other criterion — becomes possible. Whichever criteria come into play, one thing remains constant. The decisions have to be made quickly."


Emma Marris, "What To Let Go.” NATURE November 8, 2007

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