[MCN] Energy transition 2021 as transition from the limits of one extractive industry to the limits of another

[Lance Olsen]

“Ten thousand years ago there were between 1 and 5 million people on the planet.  There was plenty of room to expand and move, and resources seemed endless.”

Niles Eldredge. Dominion. 1995. University of California Press.

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“It was not until the 1920's that a few people began to realize the supplies of fossil fuels had distinct limits.”

John U. Nef.  "An Early Energy Crisis and its Consequences," 
Scientific American,  November 1977

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Batteries are the 'new oil' says Morgan Stanley — Here are stocks for every part of the supply chain <https://news.google.com/articles/CBMihQFodHRwczovL3d3dy5jbmJjLmNvbS8yMDIxLzExLzE4L2JhdHRlcmllcy1hcmUtdGhlLW5ldy1vaWwtc2F5cy1tb3JnYW4tc3RhbmxleS1oZXJlLWFyZS1zdG9ja3MtZm9yLWV2ZXJ5LXBhcnQtb2YtdGhlLXN1cHBseS1jaGFpbi5odG1s0gEA?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen>
CNBC

Morgan Stanley: The EV battery economy is the 'new oil' <https://news.google.com/articles/CCAiC0JzVERzYWFrMjFjmAEB?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen>
CNBC Television

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 <https://theconversation.com/metals-and-minerals-will-be-the-next-finite-resource-shortfall-20170>
Metals and minerals will be the next finite resource shortfall <https://theconversation.com/metals-and-minerals-will-be-the-next-finite-resource-shortfall-20170>
https://theconversation.com › metals-and-minerals-will-... <https://theconversation.com/metals-and-minerals-will-be-the-next-finite-resource-shortfall-20170>
Nov 22, 2013 — Metals and minerals will be the next finite resource shortfall ... 
 <https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a25576543/renewable-limits-materials-dutch-ministry-infrastructure/>
We Might Not Have Enough Materials for All the Solar Panels ... <https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a25576543/renewable-limits-materials-dutch-ministry-infrastructure/>
https://www.popularmechanics.com › science › energy <https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a25576543/renewable-limits-materials-dutch-ministry-infrastructure/>
Dec 13, 2018 — These can include magnetic neodymium, electronic indium, and silver, along with lesser-known metals like praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium.

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Steven W. Running <http://www.sciencemag.org/search?author1=Steven+W.+Running&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>  Science 15 March 2013
DOI: 10.1126/science.1235886
Book review - Approaching the Limits

Harvesting the Biosphere : What We Have Taken from Nature by Vaclav Smil MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2012. 315 pp. $29, £19.95. ISBN 9780262018562.

Excerpts

“Full of recent references and statistics, Harvesting the Biosphere adds to the growing chorus of warnings about the current trajectory of human activity on a finite planet, of which climate change is only one dimension. One can quibble with some assumptions or tweak Smil’s calculations, but the bottom line will not change, only the time it may take humanity to reach a crisis point.”

“Unfortunately, the tragedy of the commons suggests that collective international actions to voluntarily reduce consumption are contrary to human nature."

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 <https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/conspicuous-consumption.asp>
Conspicuous Consumption Definition - Investopedia <https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/conspicuous-consumption.asp>
https://www.investopedia.com › ... › Wealth <https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/conspicuous-consumption.asp>
Jan 21, 2021 — Conspicuous consumption is a means to show one's social status, especially when publicly displayed goods and services are too expensive for ...
 <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conspicuous_consumption>
Conspicuous consumption - Wikipedia <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conspicuous_consumption>
https://en.wikipedia.org › wiki › Conspicuous_consump... <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conspicuous_consumption>
To the conspicuous consumer, the public display of discretionary income is an economic means of either attaining or maintaining a given social status. 

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“ … we are committed to a high level of consumption because, whether we need the goods or not, we very much need the employment their production provides.”

John K. Galbraith. “How much should a country consume?”
In Jarrett, Henry (editor), Perspectives on Conservation. John Hopkins Press. 1958

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Consumer spending: an engine for U.S. job growth - Bureau of ... <https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2002/11/art2full.pdf>
https://www.bls.gov › opub › mlr › 2002/11 <https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2002/11/art2full.pdf>
PDF
by M Toossi · 2002 · Cited by 30 — spending was 83.2 million, accounting for 62 percent of total employment in the economy. Consumer spending is projected to add 11.3 million net new jobs by ...
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An Ambio article by some heavyweights in climate science lays out the situation well enough. 

A team including Will Steffen, Paul Crutzen, Veerabhadren Ramathan, Johan Rockstrom, Marten Scheffer and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber begin the abstract of their article by saying “Over the past century, the total material wealth of humanity has been enhanced …”  

They end it by saying, “we risk driving the Earth System onto a trajectory toward more hostile states from which we cannot easily return <https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3357752>.” 

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How to save Christmas from consumerism <https://news.google.com/articles/CBMiVmh0dHBzOi8vZ3Jpc3Qub3JnL2d1aWRlcy8yMDIxLWhvbGlkYXktbWFrZW92ZXIvaG93LXRvLXNhdmUtY2hyaXN0bWFzLWZyb20tY29uc3VtZXJpc20v0gEA?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen>
Grist

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People under 40 will experience 'unprecedented life' of ... <https://news.yahoo.com/people-under-40-experience-unprecedented-180424970.html>
https://news.yahoo.com › people-under-40-experience-... <https://news.yahoo.com/people-under-40-experience-unprecedented-180424970.html>
Sep 28, 2021 — People under 40 will experience 'unprecedented life' of climate change disasters, study says. 

Majority of US Population Now Under Age 40 - VOA Learning ... <https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/study-majority-of-us-population-now-under-age-40-/5532061.html>
https://learningenglish.voanews.com › study-majority-o... <https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/study-majority-of-us-population-now-under-age-40-/5532061.html>
Aug 13, 2020 — A new study shows that Americans under the age of 40 now make up a majority of the U.S. population.

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D2 - Severe Drought
	• Grazing land is inadequate
	• Fire season is longer, with high burn intensity, dry fuels, and large fire spatial extent
	• Trees are stressed; plants increase reproductive mechanisms; wildlife diseases increase

D3 - Extreme Drought
	• Livestock need expensive supplemental feed; cattle and horses are sold; little pasture remains; fruit trees bud early; producers begin irrigating in the winter
	• Fire season lasts year-round; fires occur in typically wet parts of state; burn bans are implemented
	• Water is inadequate for agriculture, wildlife, and urban needs; reservoirs are extremely low; hydropower is restricted


D4 - Exceptional Drought
	• Fields are left fallow; orchards are removed; vegetable yields are low; honey harvest is small
	• Fire season is very costly; number of fires and area burned are extensive
	• Fish rescue and relocation begins; pine beetle infestation occurs; forest mortality is high; wetlands dry up; survival of native plants and animals is low; fewer wildflowers bloom; wildlife death is widespread; algae blooms appear

Found at : 
https://www.drought.gov/topics/snow-drought

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