[MCN] Analysis : Why children must emit eight times less CO2 than their grandparents

[Lance Olsen]

Carbon Brief April 10, 2019

Analysis: Why children must emit eight times less CO2 than their grandparents
https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-children-must-emit-eight-times-less-co2-than-their-grandparents

Opening paragraphs

Global emissions of CO2 need to decline precipitously over the next few decades, if the world is to meet the Paris Agreement goals of limiting global warming to “well below 2C” and, ideally, below 1.5C.

If these goals are to be met, young people would have to live the greater part of their lives without contributing significantly to global emissions. Essentially, they would have fewer “allowable” CO2 emissions during their lifetime, compared with older generations.

To determine just how much smaller their personal CO2 limits would be, Carbon Brief has combined historical data on emissions and population with projections for the future. In a world where warming is limited to 1.5C, the average person born today can emit only an eighth of the lifetime emissions of someone born in 1950.


The interactive tool, below, shows the size of each person’s “carbon budget” during their  lifetime – based on when and where they were born.It looks at two different scenarios: one where the world limits warming to well below 2C above pre-industrial levels by 2100; and one were warming is limited to 1.5C.

It also considers two different ways of sharing future allowable emissions: one where each country tracks “optimal <https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-integrated-assessment-models-are-used-to-study-climate-change>” pathways taken from models; and another, focused on equality, where each person can use the same portion of future emissions, no matter where they live.

In all cases, younger generations will have to make do with substantially smaller lifetime carbon budgets than older generations, if the Paris limits are to be respected. This is because most of the allowable emissions <https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-much-carbon-budget-is-left-to-limit-global-warming-to-1-5c> have already been used up, meaning young people will not have the luxury of unmitigated emissions enjoyed by older generations.

The idea for this analysis was first proposed to Carbon Brief by Dr Ben Caldecott <https://www.smithschool.ox.ac.uk/people/bcaldecott.html> at the University of Oxford. The methodology used – and its limitations – are explained in detail at the end of this article. Carbon Brief is now working to further develop the analysis with Dr Caldecott and his colleagues.

Full text

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-why-children-must-emit-eight-times-less-co2-than-their-grandparents


>>>>>>>>>>>>>>  well said, but ...  >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

“Plan direction, which emphasizes ecological integrity and resilience, will be critical to minimizing the undesirable effects of these increasing and interacting stressors. Nevertheless, managers and the public should expect climate change to drive profound and often surprising changes on ecosystem structure, function, and composition in the coming decades.”

But buried 173 pages deep, in Volume 1, Final Environmental Impact Statement for the 2020 Land Management Plan Custer Gallatin National Forest

https://www.fs.usda.gov/Internet/FSE_DOCUMENTS/fseprd763586.pdf

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