[MCN] GDP and CO2, GDP and consumer spending, consumer spending and CO2, spending and jobs, individual and social resistance to change/tipping points

[Lance Olsen]

“The growth in CO2 emissions closely follows the growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) corrected for improvements in energy efficiency.”

P. Friedlingstein, et al. “Update on CO2 emissions.” 
Nature Geoscience. Published online: 21 November 2010

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“Changes in world GDP (WGDP) have a significant effect on CO2 concentrations, so that years of above-trend WGDP are years of greater rise of CO2 concentrations.”

Granados et al. Climate change and the world economy: short-run determinants of atmospheric CO2. Environmental science & policy 21 (2012) 50–62

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Consumer spending is the largest component of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the target of Keynesian fiscal and monetary policy in macroeconomics. Other economists, sometimes known as supply-siders, accept Say's Law of Markets and believe private savings and production are more important than aggregate consumption.Aug 11, 2021
 <https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumer-spending.asp>
Consumer Spending Definition - Investopedia <https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/consumer-spending.asp>

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"The big challenge is still to deliver emissions reductions at the pace and scale needed, especially in a world where economies are driven by consumption.”

Sonja van Renssen.The inconvenient truth of failed climate policies. Nature Climate Change  MAY 2018

Published online: 27 April 2018 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0155-4 

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“The US economy is based on debt-financed overconsumption, while China’s is based on debt-financed overinvestment.”

South China Morning Post (Hong Kong)
<<https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3040618/federal-reserve-prolonging-trade-war-keeping-biggest-financial>>

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“Conservationists are unquestionably useful people. And among the many useful services that they have rendered has been that of dramatizing the vast appetite the United States has developed for materials of all kinds.”

“But what of the appetite itself? Surely this is the ultimate source of the problem. If it continues its geometric course, will it not one day have to be restrained? Yet in the literature of the resource problem this is the forbidden question. Over it hangs a nearly total silence. It is as though, in the discussion of the chance for avoiding automobile accidents, we agree not to make any mention of speed!”

John K. Galbraith. “How much should a country consume?”

In Jarrett, Henry (editor), Perspectives on Conservation. 

John Hopkins Press. 1958
http://www.preservenet.com/flexibleworktime/GalbraithHowMuchShouldACountryConsume.html

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A recent Ambio article by some heavyweights in climate sets out the situation well enough. 

A team including the likes of Will Steffen, Paul Crutzen, Veerabhadren Ramathan, Johan Rockstrom, Marten Scheffer and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber begin the abstract of their article <https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3357752/> by saying “Over the past century, the total material wealth of humanity has been enhanced …” 

They end it saying,“we risk driving the Earth System onto a trajectory toward more hostile states from which we cannot easily return.”

https://mountainjournal.org/why-rising-temps-mean-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it


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https://www.bls.gov › opub › mlr › 2002/11 <https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2002/11/art2full.pdf>
PDF
by M Toossi · 2002 · Cited by 29 — In 2000, employment generated by consumer spending was 83.2 million, accounting for 62 percent of total employment in the economy. Consumer spending is ...

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Consumer Spending Drove Economic Recovery in First Quarter <https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/29/business/gdp-economy-consumer-spending.html>
https://www.nytimes.com › 2021/04/29 › business › gdp-... <https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/29/business/gdp-economy-consumer-spending.html>

Jul 29, 2021 — The first-quarter economic recovery, when the economy expanded 1.6 percent, was powered by spending. Specifically, by spending on stuff.

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Individuals are responsible for thinking about their impact on the environment and, when possible, minimize the damage they do to the planet. Everyone needs to turn on the lights at night, start the shower in the morning, turn on the air conditioning and possibly drive somewhere on Mother's Day.May 10, 2021
 <https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2021/05/10/the-role-of-individual-responsibility-in-the-transition-to-environmental-sustainability/#:~:text=Individuals%20are%20responsible%20for%20thinking,drive%20somewhere%20on%20Mother's%20Day.>
The Role of Individual Responsibility in the Transition to ... <https://news.climate.columbia.edu/2021/05/10/the-role-of-individual-responsibility-in-the-transition-to-environmental-sustainability/#:~:text=Individuals%20are%20responsible%20for%20thinking,drive%20somewhere%20on%20Mother's%20Day.>

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 <https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/yes-actually-individual-responsibility-essential-solving-climate-crisis>
Yes, Actually, Individual Responsibility Is Essential to Solving ... <https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/yes-actually-individual-responsibility-essential-solving-climate-crisis>
https://www.sierraclub.org › sierra › yes-actually-indivi... <https://www.sierraclub.org/sierra/yes-actually-individual-responsibility-essential-solving-climate-crisis>

Nov 26, 2019 — Yes, it's true that taking personal responsibility for climate change is insufficient to address the crisis; and it's equally true that ...

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Nature Climate Change  Published: 28 October 2021 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01170-y#article-info>
A systematic global stocktake of evidence on human adaptation to climate change
Lea Berrang-Ford <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01170-y#auth-Lea-Berrang_Ford>, A. R. Siders <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01170-y#auth-A__R_-Siders>, […]Thelma Zulfawu Abu <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01170-y#auth-Thelma_Zulfawu-Abu> 
Abstract
Assessing global progress on human adaptation to climate change is an urgent priority. Although the literature on adaptation to climate change is rapidly expanding, little is known about the actual extent of implementation. We systematically screened >48,000 articles using machine learning methods and a global network of 126 researchers. Our synthesis of the resulting 1,682 articles presents a systematic and comprehensive global stocktake of implemented human adaptation to climate change. Documented adaptations were largely fragmented, local and incremental, with limited evidence of transformational adaptation and negligible evidence of risk reduction outcomes. We identify eight priorities for global adaptation research: assess the effectiveness of adaptation responses, enhance the understanding of limits to adaptation, enable individuals and civil society to adapt, include missing places, scholars and scholarship, understand private sector responses, improve methods for synthesizing different forms of evidence, assess the adaptation at different temperature thresholds, and improve the inclusion of timescale and the dynamics of responses.

Excerpt from news release
“We found that all over the world, in almost every sector, people are taking action to adapt to climate change, and that's really encouraging. Less encouraging is that the actions people are taking tend to be fragmented, representing small adjustments to business-as-usual rather than the type of transformation that may be needed. For example, in response to warmer temperatures, farmers are planting crops earlier and people are using air conditioning when it's hot. This raises a concern about whether what we're doing is enough to deal with the [expected] effects of climate change.

Full release
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/933172 <https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/933172>
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19-Oct-2021 <https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/932034>
Europeans want climate action but show little appetite for radical lifestyle change -– new polling <https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/932034>
UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE <https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/932034>
REPORTS AND PROCEEDINGS <https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/932034>
 <https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/932034>
Europeans want urgent action on climate change but remain committed meat-eaters and question policy proposals such as banning the sale of new petrol vehicles after 2030, according to a new poll from the YouGov-Cambridge Centre for Public Opinion Research that surveyed environmental attitudes in seven European countries, including the UK. <https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/932034>
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Journal of Cleaner Production online 31 August 2020 
https://pure.rug.nl/ws/portalfiles/portal/154319253/1_s2.0_S0959652620340397_main.pdf


Household carbon inequality in the U.S. 
Kuishuang Feng a , Klaus Hubacek b, * , Kaihui Song a 

a Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, 20742, United States 

b Center for Energy and Environmental Sciences (IVEM), Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen (ESRIG), University of Groningen, Groningen, 9747, AG, Netherlands 

Keywords: Inequality  Consumption-based emissions  Input-output analysis 
 Household Consumption 

Abstract 

Household carbon emissions are mainly affected by income and other key demographic factors. Understanding the contribution of these factors can inform climate responsibilities and potential demandside climate mitigation strategies. By linking US consumer expenditure survey data with a nested national within a global multi-regional input-output model, this study estimates consumption-based GHG emissions for 9 income groups and assesses the carbon inequality in the US for 2015. Our results show that the per capita carbon footprint (CF) of the highest income group (>200 thousand USD per year) with 32.3 tons is about 2.6 times the per capita CF of the lowest income group (<15 thousand USD) with 12.3 tons. This is due to large gap in consumption volume and associated carbon emissions along the entire global production chain. Consumption pattern tends to narrow the gap in household per capita CF between income groups due to the lower carbon intensity per dollar spent by higher income groups. Another important factor influencing carbon footprints is household size and thus sharing of household equipment and other consumption items. The US average per capita CF is 18.1 tons compared to the global average of approximately 5 tons. The high carbon footprint across income groups in the US is largely due to the large contribution of emissions from heating and cooling and private transport, which reflects the settlement structure and lifestyles in the US, relying heavily on cars and living in larger houses.
 <https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/932034>
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Ecological Economics <https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09218009> February 2022
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107251 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107251>


Expenditure elasticity and income elasticity of GHG emissions: A survey of literature on household carbon footprint
AntoninPottier <https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921800921003104#!>

Abstract
The relationship between a household's income and its carbon emissions <https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/greenhouse-gas-emissions> is often summed up by a number, the elasticity of the carbon footprint with respect to income. I survey here the cross-sectional studies of household carbon footprints and their estimation of the elasticities with respect to income and with respect to expenditures. The difference between these two elasticities comes from the personal saving rate's <https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/propensity-to-save> increasing with income.

I compile published estimates of the elasticities of the carbon footprint or energy requirements, and compute new estimates. This amounts to around 80 estimates (one-third of which are newly computed) for over 20 countries. It is found that, generally, the carbon footprint grows less rapidly than expenditure, and confirms that the income elasticity is lower than the expenditure elasticity. Unambiguously, the assumption of an income elasticity equal to unity is not supported by the published literature.

I discuss the difference between carbon inequality <https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/economics-econometrics-and-finance/inequality> and carbon concentration, the ambiguity in the literature between income elasticity and expenditure elasticity. I present the limitations of our knowledge of the relationship between income and carbon footprint, from contestable assumptions in the methodology as well as measurement errors in household budget surveys. I examine how elasticity can be used in “top–down” assessment of the global distribution of carbon footprints.

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Ecological Economics <https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09218009> February 2022,
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107242 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107242>

Analysis
Social tipping processes towards climate action: A conceptual framework

RicardaWinkelmannab1Jonathan F.Dongesac1E. KeithSmithde1ManjanaMilkoreitf1ChristinaEderdJobstHeitziggAlexiaKatsanidoudhMarcWiedermanngNicoWunderlingabiTimothy M.Lentonj <https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0921800921003013#!>

Abstract
Societal transformations are necessary to address critical global challenges, such as mitigation of anthropogenic climate change and reaching UN sustainable development <https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/environmental-impact-assessment> goals. Recently, social tipping processes have received increased attention, as they present a form of social change whereby a small change can shift a sensitive social system into a qualitatively different state due to strongly self-amplifying (mathematically positive) feedback mechanisms. Social tipping processes with respect to technological and energy systems, political mobilization, financial markets and sociocultural norms and behaviors have been suggested as potential key drivers towards climate action.

Drawing from expert insights and comprehensive literature review, we develop a framework to identify and characterize social tipping processes critical to facilitating rapid social transformations. We find that social tipping processes are distinguishable from those of already more widely studied climate and ecological tipping dynamics. In particular, we identify human agency, social-institutional network structures, different spatial and temporal scales and increased complexity as key distinctive features underlying social tipping processes. 

Building on these characteristics, we propose a formal definition for social tipping processes and filtering criteria for those processes that could be decisive for future trajectories towards climate action. We illustrate this definition with the European political system as an example of potential social tipping processes, highlighting the prospective role of the FridaysForFuture movement.

Accordingly, this conceptual framework for social tipping processes can be utilized to illuminate mechanisms for necessary transformative climate change mitigation <https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/climate-change-mitigation> policies and actions.

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Front. Environ. Sci., 19 August 2014 | https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035 <https://doi.org/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035>

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full


PERSPECTIVE article

Social tipping points and Earth systems dynamics
R. A. Bentley <https://www.frontiersin.org/people/u/65559>1*, Eleanor J. Maddison <https://www.frontiersin.org/people/u/175646>2,3, P. H. Ranner3,4, John Bissell <https://www.frontiersin.org/people/u/175147>3,5, Camila C. S. Caiado <https://www.frontiersin.org/people/u/165772>3,5, Pojanath Bhatanacharoen3,6, Timothy Clark6, Marc Botha3,7, Folarin Akinbami3,8, Matthew Hollow <https://www.frontiersin.org/people/u/176906>3, Ranald Michie <https://www.frontiersin.org/people/u/175487>9, Brian Huntley4, Sarah E. Curtis2,3 and Philip Garnett <https://www.frontiersin.org/people/u/175433>10

1Department of Archaeology and Anthropology, Bristol University, Bristol, UK
2Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, UK
3Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience, Durham University, Durham, UK
4School of Biological and Biomedical Sciences, Durham University, Durham, UK
5Department of Mathematical Sciences, Durham University, Durham, UK
6Durham University Business School, Durham, UK
7Department of English Studies, Durham University, UK
8Palatine Centre, Durham Law School, Durham University, Durham, UK
9Department of History, Durham University, Durham, UK
10The York Management School, University of York, York, UK
Recently, Early Warning Signals (EWS) have been developed to predict tipping points in Earth Systems. This discussion highlights the potential to apply EWS to human social and economic systems, which may also undergo similar critical transitions. Social tipping points are particularly difficult to predict, however, and the current formulation of EWS, based on a physical system analogy, may be insufficient. As an alternative set of EWS for social systems, we join with other authors encouraging a focus on heterogeneity, connectivity through social networks and individual thresholds to change.



1. Introduction
Do human social and economic systems undergo critical transitions similar to those observed in ecological systems? The question has potential to advance a discussion that tends to treat environmental change as an exogenous force for societal change; e.g., the “collapse” of ancient civilizations (Shimkin, 1973 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B79>; Cullen et al., 2000 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B26>; Kuper and Kröpelin, 2006 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B53>; Rull et al., 2013 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B70>; Tierney and DeMenocal, 2013 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B83>) or future change in food supply, population dynamics, labor capacity or likelihood of conflict in modern societies (White et al., 2006 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B87>; Battisti and Naylor, 2009 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B10>; Schlenker and Roberts, 2009 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B78>; Welch et al., 2010 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B86>; Hsiang et al., 2013 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B45>; Dunne et al., 2013 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B31>).

Recent discussion in ecology and evolutionary studies has focussed specifically on “tipping points” in Earth systems (Hughes et al., 2013 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B46>; Lenton and Williams, 2013 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B57>). Enough is now known about the climate and Earth systems to evoke serious concern, though not certainty (Brook et al., 2013 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B18>), that parameters for humanity's environmentally safe and sustainable activity may be exceeded in this century (Lenton et al., 2008 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B56>; Rockström et al., 2009 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B69>; Barnosky et al., 2012 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B7>; Ehrlich and Ehrlich, 2013 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B32>; Hughes et al., 2013 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B46>; Lenton and Williams, 2013 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B57>). These perspectives are associated with the observation that Earth systems can behave non-linearly and switch relatively abruptly between different modes of operation, potentially within a human lifetime. As these natural tipping points become more starkly recognized —as in a recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report (IPCC, 2013 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B48>) or accounts of inevitability of West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse (Joughin et al., 2014 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B49>) —the challenge turns to understanding how societies may respond to their anticipation of environmental change.

Because language and socio-political activity are closely correlated, how we collectively define and discuss planetary tipping points is important (O'Neill and Nicholson-Cole, 2009 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B64>; Lenton and Williams, 2013 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B57>). In physical and mathematical sciences, precise expressions are used to represent transitions between phases of matter, waves and networks (Bissell and Straughan, in press <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B14>). Studies of Earth Systems, however, often apply a more general definition of a tipping point as one where “a small perturbation can cause a qualitative change in the future state of a system,” (Lenton and Williams, 2013 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B57>), e.g., “the flip of a complex dynamical system from one state to another” (May et al., 2008 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B61>) or simply the point where the system “response (to changing conditions) becomes nonlinear or the rate of change alters steeply” (Brook et al., 2013 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B18>).

Recent discussion of tipping points in Earth Systems has developed the tools for detecting Early Warning Signals (EWS) in observational environmental variables (time series data) and identifying the causal drivers of abrupt change, including connectivity and homogeneity/heterogeneity of systems, associated cascade effects, and feedback (Barnosky et al., 2012 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B7>; Scheffer et al., 2012 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B76>; Brook et al., 2013 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B18>; Hughes et al., 2013 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B46>; Lenton and Williams, 2013 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B57>). The tempo of “abrupt” change in Earth Systems has a vast range, from momentary to human lifetimes to millennia and geological time scales, operating on global, local or microscale individual components of systems (Brook et al., 2013 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B18>; Hughes et al., 2013 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B46>).

In the spirit of finding “common ground” between social systems and ecosystems (May et al., 2008 <https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fenvs.2014.00035/full#B61>), we are optimistic about EWS for understanding and anticipating societal responses to environmental change, but we also caution, however, against applying EWS from natural systems directly to societal systems.









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