[MCN] A "colossal disruption of the status quo," a " massive economic shift,” and "How bad could climate change get? "

[Lance Olsen]

“Decarbonization of the world’s economy would bring 
colossal disruption of the status quo. It’s a desire to avoid that change — political, financial and otherwise — that drives many of the climate sceptics. 

"Still, as this journal has noted numerous times, it’s clear that many policymakers who argue that emissions must be curbed, and fast, don’t seem to appreciate the scale of what’s required.”

EDITORIAL
NATURE  21 FEBRUARY 2018

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“...many scientists say deep emissions cuts are necessary … to prevent … dangerous consequences of global warming. 

"Getting from here to there would require a massive economic shift.”

Rachel Pannett and Jeffrey Ball. “Australia Approves Energy Bill.”  
The Wall Street Journal  p.A7, August 21, 2009


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Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios
 Luke Kempa,b,1 , Chi Xuc ,Joanna Depledged , Kristie L. Ebie , Goodwin Gibbinsf , Timothy A. Kohlerg,h,i , Johan Rockstrom€ j , Marten Schefferk , Hans Joachim Schellnhuberj,l , Will Steffenm , and Timothy M. Lentonn

OPEN ACCESS pdf
https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.2108146119 <https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.2108146119>

Opening paragraphs

How bad could climate change get? As early as 1988, the landmark Toronto Conference declaration described the ultimate consequences of climate change as potentially “second only to a global nuclear war.” Despite such proclamations decades ago, climate catastrophe is relatively under-studied and poorly understood.

The potential for catastrophic impacts depends on the magnitude and rate of climate change, the damage inflicted on Earth and human systems, and the vulnerability and response of those affected systems. The extremes of these areas, such as high temperature rise and cascading impacts, are underexamined. As noted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), there have been few quantitative estimates of global aggregate impacts from warming of 3°C or above (1). Text mining of IPCC reports similarly found that coverage of temperature rises of 3 °C or higher is underrepresented relative to their likelihood (2). Text-mining analysis also suggests that over time the coverage of IPCC reports has shifted towards temperature rise of 2 °C and belowhttps://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/ <https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/> 2022EF002876. Research has focused on the impacts of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, and studies of how climate impacts could cascade or trigger larger crises are sparse.

A thorough risk assessment would need to consider how risks spread, interact, amplify, and are aggravated by human responses (3), but even simpler “compound hazard” analyses of interacting climate hazards and drivers are underused. Yet this is how risk unfolds in the real world. For example, a cyclone destroys electrical infrastructure, leaving a population vulnerable to an ensuing deadly heat wave (4). Recently, we have seen compound hazards emerge between climate change and the COVID-19 pandemic (5). As the IPCC notes, climate risks are becoming more complex and difficult to manage, and are cascading across regions and sectors (6).

Why the focus on lower-end warming and simple risk analyses? One reason is the benchmark of the international targets: the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to well below 2 °C, with an aspiration of 1.5 °C. Another reason is the culture of climate science to “err on the side of least drama” (7), to not to be alarmists, which can be compounded by the consensus processes of the IPCC (8). Complex risk assessments, while more realistic, are also more difficult to do. 

OPEN ACCESS pdf
https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.2108146119 <https://www.pnas.org/doi/pdf/10.1073/pnas.2108146119>
~~~~~~~.      Hydrology 101.      ~~~~~~~~~~

“A fundamental characteristic of the hydrologic cycle is that it has no beginning an it has no end. It can be studied by starting at any of the following processes: evaporation, condensation, precipitation, interception, infiltration, percolation, transpiration, runoff, and storage.”

<<https://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/info/water_cycle/hydrology.cgi>>

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“The changes experienced by the biosphere over the past century ... have raised concerns about the possibility of rapid shifts from green to desert states.” 

Richard Sole'. Scaling laws in the drier. Nature 13 September 2007

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"The big challenge is still to deliver emissions reductions at the pace and scale needed, especially in a world where economies are driven by consumption.”

Sonja van Renssen.The inconvenient truth of failed climate policies. Nature Climate Change  MAY 2018

Published online: 27 April 2018 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0155-4 

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