[MCN] More stuff on climate and the prospects for life on Earth

[Lance Olsen]

How Would Just 2 Degrees of Warming Change the Planet? <https://news.google.com/articles/CBMiTWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmxpdmVzY2llbmNlLmNvbS81ODg5MS13aHktMi1kZWdyZWVzLWNlbHNpdXMtaW5jcmVhc2UtbWF0dGVycy5odG1s0gEA?hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US%3Aen>
Live Science

Excerpts
Earth's climate changes over time — the last ice age is evidence of that — but it's the rapid rate of change and the amount of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide filling up the atmosphere that have scientists concerned, deMenocal said. Moreover, global warming <https://www.livescience.com/topics/global-warming> doesn't just increase temperatures; it also threatens the food, water, shelter, energy grid and health of humans, he said.

Food
Climate change affects the ecosystems that provide food, "and therefore our security of food is linked to the security of those ecosystems," deMenocal said.
The oceans, for instance, provide people with about 20 percent of their dietary protein, deMenocal said. However, ocean acidification <https://www.livescience.com/41765-ocean-acidification-anxious-fish.html> caused by climate change makes it difficult, if not impossible, for thousands of species, including oysters, crabs and corals, to form their protective shells, which in turn disrupts the food web, Live Science previously reported <https://www.livescience.com/27594-ocean-acidification-affects-us-coasts.html>.

On land, an increase of 3.6 degrees F (2 degrees C) would almost double the water deficit and would lead to a drop in wheat and maize harvests, according to NASA <https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2458/why-a-half-degree-temperature-rise-is-a-big-deal>.

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The Financial Times  January 8, 2022

Food prices remain high into 2022 on shortages due to extreme weather
Crop damage linked to climate change could lead to stockpiling or trade restrictions, experts warn

By Camilla Hodgson and Steven Bernard
https://www.ft.com/content/fd57ad0b-b98a-4e34-b6b7-f9bbae2ce12e <https://www.ft.com/content/fd57ad0b-b98a-4e34-b6b7-f9bbae2ce12e>

Opening paragraphs

Extreme weather events in 2021 triggered spikes in the prices of agricultural commodities, which remained elevated into 2022, as the unusual conditions that damaged crops resulted in ongoing shortages.

The price of goods including Brazilian coffee, Belgian potatoes and Canadian yellow peas — in demand as a protein substitute in plant-based foods — rose sharply last year in response to extreme temperatures and flooding.

Scientists have warned that these conditions will become more frequent and intense as climate change accelerates.

Logistical issues and changes to consumption habits resulting from the pandemic also drove up the price of staple goods such as sugar and wheat last year.

“Agriculture is one of the most exposed sectors to climate change,” at risk from both individual extreme weather events and long-term shifts in climatic patterns, said a report by Stockholm Environment Institute. The risks were “many times greater” than the opportunities for the sector, it said.

A succession of extreme weather events that occurred around the world during the middle of 2021 damaged a range of crops, which drove up prices.

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Ecosphere <https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/21508925> First published: 29 May 2015
https://doi.org/10.1890/ES14-00400.1 <https://doi.org/10.1890/ES14-00400.1>

Open Access
 <http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/>
Assessing the impacts of projected climate change on biodiversity in the protected areas of western North America
Jesse G. R. Langdon <https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorRaw=Langdon%2C+Jesse+G+R>,Joshua J. Lawler <https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorRaw=Lawler%2C+Joshua+J>

Abstract
Protected areas are a fundamental component of many conservation strategies. …. As climates continue to change, species distributions, ecological communities, and ecosystems will be altered. ….Here, we quantify the relative amount of projected potential climate-driven ecological change across a protected area network by calculating three metrics. We assessed future projected changes in temperature and precipitation, shifts in major vegetation types, and vertebrate species turnover for the protected areas of the Pacific Northwestern region of North America. In general, the degree of projected change in the three metrics followed a longitudinal gradient from the Pacific coast inland toward the continental interior. Protected areas expected to experience the least change are at low elevations near the coast and throughout the Coastal Mountains, whereas areas expected to experience the most change are found at higher elevations in the Rocky Mountains and Great Basin regions. The resulting spatial variation in these impact measures underscores the importance of developing appropriate, location-specific, climate-adaptation strategies in response to disparate trends in future environmental change.

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Global Change Biology First published: 30 October 2021 
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15962 <https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15962>

Accelerated shifts in terrestrial life zones under rapid climate change
Paul R. Elsen <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorRaw=Elsen%2C+Paul+R>,Earl C. Saxon <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorRaw=Saxon%2C+Earl+C>,B. Alexander Simmons <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorRaw=Simmons%2C+B+Alexander>,Michelle Ward <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorRaw=Ward%2C+Michelle>,Brooke A. Williams <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorRaw=Williams%2C+Brooke+A>,Hedley S. Grantham <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorRaw=Grantham%2C+Hedley+S>,Salit Kark <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorRaw=Kark%2C+Salit>,Noam Levin <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorRaw=Levin%2C+Noam>,Katharina-Victoria Perez-Hammerle <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorRaw=Perez-Hammerle%2C+Katharina-Victoria> … See all authors  <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.15962#>

Abstract

Excerpts  

Rapid climate change is impacting biodiversity, ecosystem function, and human well-being. ….Comparing the contemporary and future life zone distributions shows the pace of life zone changes accelerating rapidly in the 21st century. By 2070, such changes would impact an additional 62 million km2 (42.6% of land) under “business-as-usual” (RCP8.5) emissions scenarios. Accelerated rates of change are observed in hundreds of ecoregions across all biomes except Tropical Coniferous Forests ….The accelerated pace of life zone changes will increasingly challenge adaptive conservation and sustainable development strategies that incorrectly assume current ecological patterns and livelihood provisioning systems will persist.

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Global Change Biology February 2022

Plague risk in the western United States over seven decades of environmental change <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.15966>
Colin J. Carlson <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorRaw=Carlson%2C+Colin+J>, Sarah N. Bevins <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorRaw=Bevins%2C+Sarah+N>, Boris V. Schmid <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorRaw=Schmid%2C+Boris+V>

The impacts of climate change on human and wildlife health remain poorly understood. Carlson and colleagues develop a new method for reconstructing these impacts, and show that since 1950, environmental conditions in the western United States have become more favorable for plague (Yersinia pestis), including both its maintenance in wild mammals and spillover risk for humans.

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“The fact is that we, humans, have changed the composition of the atmosphere with respect to heat-trapping gases enough to start the progression of global climate, not into a new steady state, but into an open-ended warming that is pulling the environment out from under this civilization.”

George Woodwell
<<https://thinkprogress.org/exclusive-dr-george-woodwell-sets-the-record-straight-455bfcf14412/ <https://thinkprogress.org/exclusive-dr-george-woodwell-sets-the-record-straight-455bfcf14412/>>>

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“A new area of study is the field that some of us are beginning to call social traps. The term refers to situations in society that contain traps formally like a fish trap, where men or whole societies get themselves started in some direction or some set of relationships that later prove to be unpleasant or lethal and that they see no easy way to back out of or to avoid."

John Platt. Social Traps. American Psychologist, August 1973

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Caught in a Trap of Our Own Making: Climate Change, Blame, and Denial
Lance Olsen
<<https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/06/25/caught-in-a-trap-of-our-own-making-climate-change-blame-and-denial/>>

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People under 40 will experience 'unprecedented life' of climate change disasters, study says.
https://news.yahoo.com <https://news.yahoo.com/> › people-under-40-experience-...
Sep 28, 2021 — People under 40 will experience 'unprecedented life' of climate change disasters, study says.


Majority of US Population Now Under Age 40 - VOA Learning ...
https://learningenglish.voanews.com <https://learningenglish.voanews.com/> › study-majority-o...
Aug 13, 2020 — A new study shows that Americans under the age of 40 now make up a majority of the U.S. population. 

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On August 21, 2009, The Wall Street Journal reported that “…many scientists say deep emissions cuts are necessary … to prevent … dangerous consequences of global warming,” and concluded that,  "Getting from here to there would require a massive economic shift.”

There’s likely been no better summary of the Green New Deal’s basic rationale. In just these few words, The Wall Street Journal had pointed its readers directly to a dangerous trend, identified how to reduce the danger with major economic shift, and did that 10 years before the Sunrise Movement caught the attention of newly elected US Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

<<https://mountainjournal.org/green-new-deal-faces-uphill-fight-in-wyoming-and-montana-coal-country <https://mountainjournal.org/green-new-deal-faces-uphill-fight-in-wyoming-and-montana-coal-country>>>


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People under 40 will experience 'unprecedented life' of climate change disasters, study says.
https://news.yahoo.com › people-under-40-experience-...
Sep 28, 2021 — People under 40 will experience 'unprecedented life' of climate change disasters, study says.

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Majority of US Population Now Under Age 40 - VOA Learning ...
https://learningenglish.voanews.com › study-majority-o...
Aug 13, 2020 — A new study shows that Americans under the age of 40 now make up a majority of the U.S. population. 


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