[MCN] Fossil fuels force human population control, just from their fine particle air pollution alone [ wildfires add to the effect ]

[Lance Olsen]

Fossil fuels force human population control, just from their fine particle air pollution alone [ wildfires add to the effect ]


Environmental Research April 2021

Global mortality from outdoor fine particle pollution generated by fossil fuel combustion: Results from GEOS-Chem

Karn Vohra a, Alina Vodonos b, Joel Schwartz b, Eloise A. Marais c 1, Melissa P. Sulprizio d, Loretta J. Mickley d


https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2021.110754 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2021.110754>


https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0013935121000487#

Abstract

The burning of fossil fuels – especially coal, petrol, and diesel – is a major source of airborne fine particulate matter <https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/fine-particulate-matter> (PM2.5), and a key contributor to the global burden of mortality and disease. Previous risk assessments have examined the health response to total PM2.5, not just PM2.5 from fossil fuel combustion <https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/fuel-combustion>, and have used a concentration-response function with limited support from the literature and data at both high and low concentrations. This assessment examines mortality associated with PM2.5 from only fossil fuel combustion <https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/fuel-combustion>, making use of a recent meta-analysis of newer studies with a wider range of exposure. We also estimated mortality due to lower respiratory infections (LRI) among children under the age of five in the Americas and Europe, regions for which we have reliable data on the relative risk of this health outcome from PM2.5 exposure. We used the chemical transport model GEOS-Chem to estimate global exposure levels to fossil-fuel related PM2.5 in 2012. Relative risks of mortality were modeled using functions that link long-term exposure to PM2.5 and mortality, incorporating nonlinearity in the concentration response. We estimate a global total of 10.2 (95% CI: −47.1 to 17.0) million premature deaths annually attributable to the fossil-fuel component of PM2.5. The greatest mortality impact is estimated over regions with substantial fossil fuel related PM2.5, notably China (3.9 million), India (2.5 million) and parts of eastern US, Europe and Southeast Asia. The estimate for China predates substantial decline in fossil fuel emissions and decreases to 2.4 million premature deaths due to 43.7% reduction in fossil fuel PM2.5 from 2012 to 2018 bringing the global total to 8.7 (95% CI: −1.8 to 14.0) million premature deaths. We also estimated excess annual deaths due to LRI in children (0–4 years old) of 876 in North America, 747 in South America, and 605 in Europe. This study demonstrates that the fossil fuel component of PM2.5 contributes a large mortality burden. The steeper concentration-response function slope at lower concentrations leads to larger estimates than previously found in Europe and North America, and the slower drop-off in slope at higher concentrations results in larger estimates in Asia. Fossil fuel combustion can be more readily controlled than other sources and precursors of PM2.5 such as dust or wildfire smoke, so this is a clear message to policymakers and stakeholders to further incentivize a shift to clean sources of energy.

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MARCH 1, 2023 REPORT <https://phys.org/editorials/>
Global warming could lead to increase in 'hot lightning' strikes causing more wildfires
by Bob Yirka , Phys.org <http://phys.org/>

A combined team of Earth scientists from multiple institutions has found evidence that suggests that in the coming years, a warming planet could lead to more "hot lightning" strikes that could cause more wildfires in many parts of the world. In their paper published in the journal Nature Communications, the group describes studying the types of lightning strikes that lead to wildfires and the likelihood of their increase as global warming progresses.

The work began with an analysis of satellite images of U.S. wildfires over the years 1992 to 2018. By studying the types of lightning strikes that occurred and comparing them with resulting wildfires, the team found that wildfires are more likely to start due to hot lightning strikes, which the group describes as strikes that last much longer than average. They found that approximately 90% of the fires they observed got their start this way. Such strikes can last from around 40 milliseconds to nearly a third of a second. Longer strike times transfer more heat to flammable material such as trees, shrubs and even grass.

The researchers then looked at the rate of such lightning strikes over time. Computer simulations showed higher frequency as the atmosphere warms. And climate models <https://phys.org/tags/climate+models/> showed that such strikes could increase from three strikes per second globally to four strikes per second. They note that the models also showed all types of lightning strikes increasing by 2090, representing a 28% increase.

The team then looked at which parts of the globe are most likely to see more hot lightning strikes as the planet warms and weather patterns <https://phys.org/tags/weather+patterns/> change as a result. They found that parts of South America, Southeast Asia, Australia and Africa are all at risk. But they found the most dramatic increase will likely be in North America. On the other hand, the models showed that the polar regions <https://phys.org/tags/polar+regions/> are likely to see fewer wildfires as rain amounts will likely increase there.

More information: Francisco J. Pérez-Invernón et al, Variation of lightning-ignited wildfire patterns under climate change, Nature Communications (2023). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-36500-5 <https://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-36500-5>




Fossil fuel air pollution responsible for 1 in 5 deaths worldwide
https://www.hsph.harvard.edu › c-change › news › foss...

Feb 9, 2021 — The study, “Global Mortality From Outdoor Fine Particle Pollution Generated by Fossil Fuel Combustion,” published in Environmental Research, …

================

Deaths from fossil fuel emissions higher than previously thought

https://www.seas.harvard.edu › news › 2021/02 › death...

Feb 9, 2021 — More than 8 million people died in 2018 from fossil fuel pollution, significantly higher than previous research suggested, according to new ...

================

Fossil fuel air pollution responsible for 1 in 5 deaths worldwide
https://www.ucl.ac.uk › news › feb › fossil-fuel-air-poll...

Feb 9, 2021 — An estimated 1 in 5 deaths (18 to 21.5%) every year can be attributed to fossil fuel pollution, a figure much higher than previously thought ...

================

'Invisible killer': fossil fuels caused 8.7m deaths globally in ...
https://www.theguardian.com › environment › feb › fos...

Feb 9, 2021 — Air pollution caused by the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil was responsible for 8.7m deaths globally in 2018, a staggering one ...


==============

Fossil fuel air pollution responsible for 1 in 5 deaths worldwide
https://www.hsph.harvard.edu › c-change › news › foss...

Feb 9, 2021 — The study, “Global Mortality From Outdoor Fine Particle Pollution Generated by Fossil Fuel Combustion,” published in Environmental Research, …

================

Deaths from fossil fuel emissions higher than previously thought

https://www.seas.harvard.edu › news › 2021/02 › death...

Feb 9, 2021 — More than 8 million people died in 2018 from fossil fuel pollution, significantly higher than previous research suggested, according to new ...

================

Fossil fuel air pollution responsible for 1 in 5 deaths worldwide
https://www.ucl.ac.uk › news › feb › fossil-fuel-air-poll...

Feb 9, 2021 — An estimated 1 in 5 deaths (18 to 21.5%) every year can be attributed to fossil fuel pollution, a figure much higher than previously thought ...

================

'Invisible killer': fossil fuels caused 8.7m deaths globally in ...
https://www.theguardian.com › environment › feb › fos...

Feb 9, 2021 — Air pollution caused by the burning of fossil fuels such as coal and oil was responsible for 8.7m deaths globally in 2018, a staggering one ...

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