[MCN] "Anthropogenic global warming is projected to disrupt the hydrological cycle, leading to water scarcity."

[Lance Olsen]

nature <https://www.nature.com/>  nature communications <https://www.nature.com/ncomms>  articles <https://www.nature.com/ncomms/articles?type=article>  article
Article
Open access <https://www.springernature.com/gp/open-science/about/the-fundamentals-of-open-access-and-open-research>
Published: 23 September 2025
The first emergence of unprecedented global water scarcity in the Anthropocene

Vecchia P. Ravinandrasana <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-63784-6#auth-Vecchia_P_-Ravinandrasana-Aff1-Aff2> & Christian L. E. Franzke <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-63784-6#auth-Christian_L__E_-Franzke-Aff1-Aff2> 
Nature Communications <https://www.nature.com/ncomms> volume 16, Article number: 8281 (2025) Cite this article <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-63784-6#citeas>
405 Altmetric
Metricsdetails <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-63784-6/metrics>
Abstract
Access to water is crucial for all aspects of life. Anthropogenic global warming is projected to disrupt the hydrological cycle, leading to water scarcity. However, the timing and hotspot regions of unprecedented water scarcity are unknown. Here, we estimate the Time of First Emergence (ToFE) of drought-driven water scarcity events, referred to as “Day Zero Drought” (DZD), which arises from hydrological compound extremes, including prolonged rainfall deficits, reduced river flow, and increasing water consumption. Using a probabilistic framework and a large ensemble of climate simulations, we attribute the timing and likelihood of DZD events to human influence. Many regions, including major reservoirs, may face high risk of DZD by the 2020s and 2030s. Despite model and scenario uncertainties, consistent DZD hotspots emerge across the Mediterranean, southern Africa, and parts of North America. Urban populations are particularly vulnerable at the 1.5 °C warming level. The length of time between successive DZD events is shorter than the duration of DZD, limiting recovery periods and exacerbating water scarcity risks. Therefore, more proactive water strategies are urgently needed to avoid severe societal impacts of DZD.





































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“Full of recent references and statistics, Harvesting the Biosphere adds to the growing chorus of warnings about the current trajectory of human activity on a finite planet, of which climate change is only one dimension. 

“One can quibble with some assumptions or tweak Smil’s calculations, but the bottom line will not change, only the time it may take humanity to reach a crisis point.”

Stephen Running. “Approaching the Limits” Science 15 March 2013.

Book review. Harvesting the Biosphere: What we have taken from Nature. by Vaclav Smil .  MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2012. 315 pp. $29, £19.95. ISBN 9780262018562.

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“Man …  is alone, abandoned on earth in the midst of his infinite responsibilities, without help, with no other aim than the one he sets himself, with no other destiny than the one he forges for himself on this earth.”

Jean-Paul Sartre (1905-1980)


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