[MCN] A heated, therefore "thirsty" atmosphere is and will be drying the world's land irreversibly via its demand for evaporation

[Lance Olsen]


 <https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/23284277>
Research Article
Open Access
 <http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/>
Transition in Global Basins From Precipitation-Dominated to Evaporative Demand-Dominated Meteorological Drought: Past Patterns and Future Projections
Jiachen Ji <https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/authored-by/Ji/Jiachen>, Chiyuan Miao <https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/authored-by/Miao/Chiyuan>, Jinlong Hu <https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/authored-by/Hu/Jinlong>, Jiajia Su <https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/authored-by/Su/Jiajia>, Shidie Chen <https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/authored-by/Chen/Shidie>, Yufei Wang <https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/authored-by/Wang/Yufei>, Yunning Kong <https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/authored-by/Kong/Yunning>, Xiaoyong Bai <https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/authored-by/Bai/Xiaoyong>, Yiying Wang <https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/authored-by/Wang/Yiying>
First published: 31 January 2026 https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007492Digital Object Identifier (DOI) <https://doi.org/10.1029/2025EF007492>  VIEW METRICS
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Abstract
Meteorological drought, one of the most destructive natural hazards, is driven by both precipitation deficits and high evaporative demand. While precipitation has traditionally been considered the dominant driver, recent studies suggest an increasing influence of evaporative demand. However, it remains uncertain whether these findings represent individual regional cases or a boarder emerging global trend. To address this, we developed a systematic framework using a standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) variant experiment to attribute drought drivers across 292 major global basins. Our historical analysis (1970–2024) reveals a widespread global transition: 48.1% of the global basin area (6.43 × 107 km2) transitioned from precipitation-dominated to evaporative demand-dominated drought. This transition, accelerating after 2000, originated in arid continental interiors and expanded outwards, leaving precipitation-dominated areas only one-tenth the size of evaporative demand-dominated ones. Future projections from bias-corrected coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 models indicate this transition is largely irreversible, as over 80% of historically transitioned basins are projected to maintain evaporative demand-dominated through 2100. Basins that have not yet transitioned are also projected to transition toward either evaporative demand-dominated or precipitation and evaporative demand co-dominated drought states. Under the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) 5-8.5 scenario, the global area of evaporative demand-dominated droughts is projected to be 17.6% larger by 2100 than under SSP1-2.6 scenario. These findings highlight the urgent need for both climate mitigation to slow these transitions and proactive adaptation to address the new reality of drought driven by evaporative demand.

Plain Language Summary
Meteorological drought arises from two main sources: a deficit in precipitation, or high evaporative demand from a warming atmosphere that pulls moisture from the land. For decades, scientific understanding and water management have focused on precipitation as the dominant drought driver. In a warming world, is this understanding still correct? Our research set out to answer this question on a global scale. We analyzed over 50 years of climate data (1970–2024) across 292 of the world's major basins. Using a systematic drought attribution framework, our analysis revealed a profound global transition. We found that nearly half (48.1%) of the global basin area has already shifted from a state of precipitation-dominated drought to one dominated by evaporative demand. Future climate projections indicate this transition is largely irreversible. Most basins that have already shifted are projected to remain in this new state through 2100. While those that have not yet transitioned are also projected to shift, establishing evaporative demand as a dominate drought factor nearly everywhere by the end of the century. These findings underscore the urgent need to both mitigate climate change to slow these transitions and proactively adapt to the new reality of evaporative demand -driven drought.

Key Points
Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index variant experiment identified dominant drought drivers and their transition periods

Nearly half of global basins shifted from precipitation-to evaporative demand-dominated drought

This shift is largely irreversible, with remaining basins projected to follow in the future

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 “The whole idea that everything’s going to work out isn’t really helpful because it isn’t going to work out ” said Kate Marvel a climate scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Climate change is going to worsen to a point where millions of lives, homes, and species are put at risk she said. 

https://newrepublic.com/article/151608/case-against-climate-pessimism

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"Environmental psychologist Susi Moser (2012) calls it ‘the bravest thing’ – getting real, accepting reality without illusions, and accepting that better tomorrows may not come.”

https://www.isthishowyoufeel.com/blog/how-do-people-cope-with-feelings-about-climate-change-so-that-they-stay-engaged-and-take-action



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"The increasing role of warming on large-scale snowpack variability and trends foreshadows fundamental impacts on streamflow and water supplies across the western USA."

Gregory T. Pederson, Stephen T. Gray, Connie A. Woodhouse, Julio L. Betancourt, Daniel B. Fagre, Jeremy S. Littell, Emma Watson, Brian H. Luckman, Lisa J. Graumlich. “The Unusual Nature of Recent Snowpack Declines in the North American Cordillera.”  Science, Science Express, June 9, 2011

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