[MCN] "...even with ambitious climate change mitigation, current fire-suppression policies will fail in much of the world..."

[Lance Olsen]

 nature communications <https://www.nature.com/ncomms>  articles <https://www.nature.com/ncomms/articles?type=article>  article
Article
Open access <https://www.springernature.com/gp/open-science/about/the-fundamentals-of-open-access-and-open-research>
Published: 12 February 2026
Wildfires on a changing planet

Olivia Haas <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-68176-4#auth-Olivia-Haas-Aff1-Aff2>, Iain Colin Prentice <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-68176-4#auth-Iain_Colin-Prentice-Aff1-Aff2> & Sandy P. Harrison <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-68176-4#auth-Sandy_P_-Harrison-Aff1-Aff3> 
Nature Communications <https://www.nature.com/ncomms> , Article number:  (2026) Cite this article <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-68176-4#citeas>
We are providing an unedited version of this manuscript to give early access to its findings. Before final publication, the manuscript will undergo further editing. Please note there may be errors present which affect the content, and all legal disclaimers apply.

Abstract
The distribution of wildfires on Earth will change as climate, land-use, and vegetation change. We use global empirical models of burnt area, fire size and fire intensity to explore future wildfire trajectories under ~1.5 and 3-4 °C warming with middle of the road future socio-economic conditions. Even under ~1.5 °C warming we find a change in wildfire patterns by the end of the 21st century with reduced burning in tropical regions driven by changes in human activity but larger and more intense wildfires in extra-tropical regions driven by changes in climate and CO2. With low climate change mitigation, burnt areas increase greatly across all vegetation types, overwhelming the current global decline. These findings suggest that even with ambitious climate change mitigation, current fire-suppression policies will fail in much of the world and mitigation scenarios that rely on expanding forest areas will be unrealistic unless they are designed with wildfire risks in mind.




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“Seventy percent of the outcomes of the energy transition depend on people changing their energy consumption, behaviors and lifestyles. But ...

70% of Consumers Unwilling to Spend More on Energy ...

ESG Today Feb 13, 2024
https://www.esgtoday.com/70-of-consumers-unwilling-to-spend-more-on-energy-sustainability-ey-survey/

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Consumers Are Not Voting For The Energy Transition

Forbes Mar 28, 2025 

Consumers need to alter their behavior to meet Net Zero 2050 targets, but there is little evidence of that.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellynch/2025/03/28/consumers-are-not-voting-for-the-energy-transition/

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