[MCN] New report, same story: Heat, drought, fire -> risk for woody plants

[Lance Olsen]

Neal J Enright, Joseph B Fontaine, David MJS Bowman, Ross A 
Bradstock, and Richard J Williams 2015. Interval squeeze: altered 
fire regimes and demographic responses interact to threaten woody 
species persistence as climate changes. Frontiers in Ecology and the 
Environment 13: 265-272. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/140231

Interval squeeze: altered fire regimes and demographic responses 
interact to threaten woody species persistence as climate changes
Neal J Enright1*, Joseph B Fontaine1, David MJS Bowman2, Ross A 
Bradstock3, and Richard J Williams4
(bold emphasis added to abstract

Abstract
http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/140231

Projected effects of climate change across many ecosystems globally 
include more frequent disturbance by fire and reduced plant growth 
due to warmer (and especially drier) conditions. Such changes affect 
species - particularly fire-intolerant woody plants - by 
simultaneously reducing recruitment, growth, and survival. 
Collectively, these mechanisms may narrow the fire interval window 
compatible with population persistence, driving species to 
extirpation or extinction. We present a conceptual model of these 
combined effects, based on synthesis of the known impacts of climate 
change and altered fire regimes on plant demography, and describe a 
syndrome we term "interval squeeze". This model predicts that 
interval squeeze will increase woody plant extinction risk and change 
ecosystem structure, composition, and carbon storage, especially in 
regions projected to become both warmer and drier. These predicted 
changes demand new approaches to fire management that will maximize 
the in situ adaptive capacity of species to respond to climate change 
and fire regime change.

1School of Veterinary and Life Sciences, Murdoch University, Perth, Australia
*(N.enright at murdoch.edu.au)
2School of Plant Science, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
3School of Biological Sciences, University of Wollongong, Wollongong, Australia
4Sustainable Ecosystems, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial 
Research Organisation (CSIRO), Darwin, Australia
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