[MCN] Future US forest condition: What's realistic, "achievable"?

[Lance Olsen]

Forest Ecology and Management
Volume 360, 15 January 2016, Pages 80-96
doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2015.10.009

Review and synthesis

Achievable future conditions as a framework for guiding forest 
conservation and management
S.W. Golladay et al

Keywords
Forest management; Conservation; Ecosystem services; Novel 
ecosystems; Achievable future conditions; Southeastern United States

Highlights
*New strategies for forest management are necessary to sustain 
ecosystem services.
*Goals for management should be based on Achievable Future Conditions (AFC).
*Defining AFCs requires science-management-public partnerships.
*AFCs expand on ecosystem and best management practices using 
risk-based approaches.
*Ongoing monitoring and reevaluation of goals are essential for 
successful management.

Abstract
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378112715005642

We contend that traditional approaches to forest conservation and 
management will be inadequate given the predicted scale of 
social-economic and biophysical changes in the 21st century. New 
approaches, focused on anticipating and guiding ecological responses 
to change, are urgently needed to ensure the full value of forest 
ecosystem services for future generations. These approaches 
acknowledge that change is inevitable and sometimes irreversible, and 
that maintenance of ecosystem services depends in part on novel 
ecosystems, i.e., species combinations with no analog in the past. We 
propose that ecological responses be evaluated at landscape or 
regional scales using risk-based approaches to incorporate 
uncertainty into forest management efforts with subsequent goals for 
management based on Achievable Future Conditions (AFC). AFCs defined 
at a landscape or regional scale incorporate advancements in 
ecosystem management, including adaptive approaches, resilience, and 
desired future conditions into the context of the Anthropocene. 
Inherently forward looking, ACFs encompass mitigation and adaptation 
options to respond to scenarios of projected future biophysical, 
social-economic, and policy conditions which distribute risk and 
provide diversity of response to uncertainty. The engagement of 
science-management-public partnerships is critical to our risk-based 
approach for defining AFCs. Robust monitoring programs of forest 
management actions are also crucial to address uncertainty regarding 
species distributions and ecosystem processes. Development of 
regional indicators of response will also be essential to evaluate 
outcomes of management strategies. Our conceptual framework provides 
a starting point to move toward AFCs for forest management, 
illustrated with examples from fire and water management in the 
Southeastern United States. Our model is adaptive, incorporating 
evaluation and modification as new information becomes available and 
as social-ecological dynamics change. It expands on established 
principles of ecosystem management and best management practices 
(BMPs) and incorporates scenarios of future conditions. It also 
highlights the potential limits of existing institutional structures 
for defining AFCs and achieving them. In an uncertain future of rapid 
change and abrupt, unforeseen transitions, adjustments in management 
approaches will be necessary and some actions will fail. However, it 
is increasingly evident that the greatest risk is posed by continuing 
to implement strategies inconsistent with current understanding of 
our novel future.

-- 
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Study co-author Dr Amanda Bates, from Ocean and Earth Science at the 
University of Southampton, said: "In 100 years from now, 100 per cent 
of species in many communities will be lost and replaced by new 
species able to tolerate warmer conditions, leading to a 
redistribution of species across the globe."

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2015-11/uos-tso111015.php

and/or:

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nature16144.html

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