[MCN] Excellent journalism: Climate change -> forest change

[Lance Olsen]

Rolling Stone March 12, 2015

The Fate of Trees: How Climate Change May Alter Forests Worldwide
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/news/the-fate-of-trees-how-climate-change-may-alter-forests-worldwide-20150312
By Jeff Tietz

=====================  3 key quotes  ==================
McDowell predicts "massive mortality." By 2100, 
he believes, rising temperatures could kill more 
than 50 percent of the conifer forests in the 
Northern Hemisphere. "I expect global-scale 
conifer loss," he says, with "major mortality 
throughout the temperate and southern boreal 
regions."

But neither Williams nor any other scientist I 
spoke with thinks the Earth will lose all of its 
forests.

Undeniably, though, tree casualties in the 21st 
century will be high.  ....  By the second half 
of the 21st century, decades of percussive heat 
waves will have segued into a permanent heat 
drought, and brushy flora will have largely 
supplanted conifer forests.
-- 

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"We demonstrate that wildfire area burned (WFAB) 
in the American West was controlled by climate 
during the 20th century (1916-2003).    .... 
Despite the possible influence of fire 
suppression, exclusion, and fuel treatment, WFAB 
is still substantially controlled by climate. "

Jeremy S. Littell et al. Climate and wildfire 
area burned in western U.S. ecoprovinces, 
1916-2003. Ecological Applications, 19(4), 2009, 
pp. 1003-1021
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"Tree mortality in relatively undisturbed 
old-growth forests across the West has risen even 
when not triggered by wildfires or insect 
infestations."
http://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2014/09/Rocky-Mountain-Forests-at-Risk-Full-Report.pdf
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"Drought and heat-induced tree mortality is 
accelerating in many forest biomes as a 
consequence of a warming climate, resulting in a 
threat to global forests unlike any in recorded 
history (1-12)."

"   Š.  we conclude with high certainty that 
today's forests are going to be subject to 
continued increases in mortality rates that will 
result in substantial reorganization of their 
structure and carbon storage."

Nathan G. McDowell and Craig D. Allen. Darcy's 
law predicts widespread forest mortality under 
climate warming.
Nature Climate Change. Published online 18 MAY 2015
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2641


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