[MCN] Climate policy: "The world's biggest gamble"

Lance Olsen lance at wildrockies.org
Tue Sep 6 13:37:58 EDT 2016

Earth's Future - An American Geophysical Union open access journal
Accepted manuscript online: 24 August 2016

Accepted articles have been accepted for 
publication but not edited. They may be cited. 
The final edited version of record will appear in 
the future.

The world's biggest gamble
Johan Rockström, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Brian 
Hoskins, Veerabhadran Ramanathan, Peter 
Schlosser, Guy Pierre Brasseur, Owen Gaffney, 
Carlos Nobre, Malte Meinsheusen, Joeri Rogelj, et 

Abstract [Open Access] [bold added]

The scale of the decarbonisation challenge to 
meet the Paris Agreement is underplayed in the 
public arena. It will require precipitous 
emission reductions and a new carbon sink on the 
scale of the ocean sink within 40 years. Even 
then, the world is extremely likely to overshoot. 
A catastrophic failure of policy, for example 
waiting another decade for transformative policy 
and full commitments to fossil-free economies, 
will have irreversible and deleterious 
repercussions for humanity's remaining time on 
Earth. Only a global zero carbon roadmap will put 
the world on a course to phase-out greenhouse gas 
emissions and create the essential carbon sinks 
for Earth-system stability, without which, world 
prosperity is not possible.
"The biosphere -- this thin film of air and water 
and soil and life no deeper than ten miles, or 
one four-hundredth of the earth's radius  -- is 
now the setting of the uncertain history of man."

"Man must learn to see himself in his true place 
and proportion in the biosphere."

  The Editors, Scientific American. Foreword to 
The Biosphere, the book version of Scientific 
American's September 1970 special issue on The 
"The growth in CO2 emissions closely follows the 
growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) corrected 
for improvements in energy efficiency."

P. Friedlingstein, et al. "Update on CO2 emissions."
Nature Geoscience. Published online: 21 November 2010
"Changes in world GDP (WGDP) have a significant 
effect on CO2 concentrations, so that years of 
above-trend WGDP are years of greater rise of CO2 

Granados et al. Climate change and the world 
economy: short-run determinants of atmospheric 
CO2. Environmental science & policy 21 (2012) 

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