[MCN] To halt the heat below 2C, ...

Tue Oct 17 11:46:22 EDT 2017

"Justin Adams, Global Lands Managing Director, The Nature Conservancy, commented: “…. Managing our lands better is absolutely key to beating climate change. 

The PNAS study shows us that those responsible for the lands - governments, the forestry companies and farms, the fishermen and property developers - 

are just as important to achieving this as the solar, wind and electric car businesses'."

PNAS  Early Edition <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/recent>

doi: 10.1073/pnas.1710465114

Natural climate solutions
Bronson W. Griscom <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Bronson+W.+Griscom&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>a <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-1>,b <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-2>,1 <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#corresp-1>, Justin Adams <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Justin+Adams&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>a <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-1>, Peter W. Ellis <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Peter+W.+Ellis&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>a <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-1>, Richard A. Houghton <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Richard+A.+Houghton&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>c <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-3>, Guy Lomax <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Guy+Lomax&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>a <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-1>,Daniela A. Miteva <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Daniela+A.+Miteva&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>d <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-4>, William H. Schlesinger <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=William+H.+Schlesinger&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>e <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-5>,1 <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#corresp-1>, David Shoch <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=David+Shoch&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>f <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-6>, Juha V. Siikamäki <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Juha+V.+Siikam%C3%A4ki&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>g <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-7>, Pete Smith <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Pete+Smith&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>h <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-8>,Peter Woodbury <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Peter+Woodbury&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>i <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-9>, Chris Zganjar <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Chris+Zganjar&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>a <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-1>, Allen Blackman <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Allen+Blackman&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>g <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-7>, João Campari <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Jo%C3%A3o+Campari&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>j <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-10>, Richard T. Conant <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Richard+T.+Conant&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>k <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-11>,Christopher Delgado <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Christopher+Delgado&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>l <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-12>,Patricia Elias <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Patricia+Elias&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>a <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-1>, Trisha Gopalakrishna <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Trisha+Gopalakrishna&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>a <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-1>, Marisa R. Hamsik <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Marisa+R.+Hamsik&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>a <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-1>, Mario Herrero <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Mario+Herrero&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>m <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-13>, Joseph Kiesecker <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Joseph+Kiesecker&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>a <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-1>,Emily Landis <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Emily+Landis&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>a <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-1>, Lars Laestadius <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Lars+Laestadius&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>l <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-12>,n <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-14>, Sara M. Leavitt <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Sara+M.+Leavitt&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>a <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-1>, Susan Minnemeyer <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Susan+Minnemeyer&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>l <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-12>, Stephen Polasky <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Stephen+Polasky&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>o <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-15>, Peter Potapov <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Peter+Potapov&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>p <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-16>,Francis E. Putz <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Francis+E.+Putz&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>q <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-17>, Jonathan Sanderman <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Jonathan+Sanderman&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>c <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-3>, Marcel Silvius <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Marcel+Silvius&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>r <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-18>,Eva Wollenberg <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Eva+Wollenberg&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>s <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-19>, and Joseph Fargione <http://www.pnas.org/search?author1=Joseph+Fargione&sortspec=date&submit=Submit>a <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2017/10/11/1710465114#aff-1>
Significance

Most nations recently agreed to hold global average temperature rise to well below 2 °C. We examine how much climate mitigation nature can contribute to this goal with a comprehensive analysis of “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and/or improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We show that NCS can provide over one-third of the cost-effective climate mitigation needed between now and 2030 to stabilize warming to below 2 °C. Alongside aggressive fossil fuel emissions reductions, NCS offer a powerful set of options for nations to deliver on the Paris Climate Agreement while improving soil productivity, cleaning our air and water, and maintaining biodiversity.

Abstract
Better stewardship of land is needed to achieve the Paris Climate Agreement goal of holding warming to below 2 °C; however, confusion persists about the specific set of land stewardship options available and their mitigation potential. To address this, we identify and quantify “natural climate solutions” (NCS): 20 conservation, restoration, and improved land management actions that increase carbon storage and/or avoid greenhouse gas emissions across global forests, wetlands, grasslands, and agricultural lands. We find that the maximum potential of NCS—when constrained by food security, fiber security, and biodiversity conservation—is 23.8 petagrams of CO2 equivalent (PgCO2e) y−1 (95% CI 20.3–37.4). This is ≥30% higher than prior estimates, which did not include the full range of options and safeguards considered here. About half of this maximum (11.3 PgCO2e y−1) represents cost-effective climate mitigation, assuming the social cost of CO2 pollution is ≥100 USD MgCO2e−1 by 2030. Natural climate solutions can provide 37% of cost-effective CO2 mitigation needed through 2030 for a >66% chance of holding warming to below 2 °C. One-third of this cost-effective NCS mitigation can be delivered at or below 10 USD MgCO2−1. Most NCS actions—if effectively implemented—also offer water filtration, flood buffering, soil health, biodiversity habitat, and enhanced climate resilience. Work remains to better constrain uncertainty of NCS mitigation estimates. Nevertheless, existing knowledge reported here provides a robust basis for immediate global action to improve ecosystem stewardship as a major solution to climate change.

climate mitigation <http://www.pnas.org/search?fulltext=climate+mitigation&sortspec=date&submit=Submit&andorexactfulltext=phrase> forests <http://www.pnas.org/search?fulltext=forests&sortspec=date&submit=Submit&andorexactfulltext=phrase> agriculture <http://www.pnas.org/search?fulltext=agriculture&sortspec=date&submit=Submit&andorexactfulltext=phrase> wetlands <http://www.pnas.org/search?fulltext=wetlands&sortspec=date&submit=Submit&andorexactfulltext=phrase> ecosystems <http://www.pnas.org/search?fulltext=ecosystems&sortspec=date&submit=Submit&andorexactfulltext=phrase>

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“Making connections is the essence of scientific progress.”

Chris Quigg, “Aesthetic Science,”

Scientific American, April 1999

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