[MCN] Sustainability is mostly empty talk

[Lance Olsen]

PNAS published ahead of print September 5, 2018 
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1807026115 <https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1807026115>

Linking economic growth pathways and environmental sustainability by understanding development as alternate social–ecological regimes
Graeme S. Cumming and Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel

Significance [ bold added ]

Our analysis shows that there are two distinct groups of national economies, roughly equating to developed and less developed countries. The economies of countries in each group are pushed toward two different equilibrium points by differences in the feedbacks between natural resource consumption, population growth, and gross domestic product. Both equilibrium points are unsustainable under population growth. The inertia that is generated by resource dependence means that extensive structural change in the economic system is required to achieve sustainable use of natural resources; it is not possible to “develop to sustainability,” and many developed countries have simply externalized costs. Our results have profound implications for aid programs, human wellbeing, and development goals.

Abstract [ bold added ]

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/09/04/1807026115 <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/09/04/1807026115>
Scientists understand how global ecological degradation is occurring but not why it seems to be so difficult to reverse. We used national-level data and a mathematical model to provide an empirical test of the hypothesis that national economies display two distinct economic regimes that are maintained by self-reinforcing feedbacks between natural resources and society. Our results not only support previous findings that two distinct groups exist, but also show that countries move toward one of these two different equilibrium points because of their different patterns of natural resource use and responses to population growth. At the less economically developed equilibrium point maintained by “green-loop” feedbacks, human populations depend more directly on ecosystems for income. At the more economically developed equilibrium point maintained by “red-loop” feedbacks, nonecosystem services (e.g., technology, manufacturing, services) generate the majority of national gross domestic product (GDP), but increasing consumption of natural resources means that environmental impacts are higher and are often exported (via cross-scale feedbacks) to other countries. Feedbacks between income and population growth are pushing countries farther from sustainability. Our analysis shows that economic growth alone cannot lead to environmental sustainability and that current trajectories of resource use cannot be sustained without breaking feedback loops in national and international economies.



~~~~~~~~~~  to save farms, forests, waters, wildlife, and kids   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~

“... the report warns that we have reached a one-time “use it or lose it” moment <<https://newclimateeconomy.report/ <https://newclimateeconomy.report/>>>.

The annual commission study … recommends an action plan that would include: ramped up carbon pricing <https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/carbon-pricing-making-the-invisible-visible_us_59df3468e4b069e5b833b26f>, fossil fuel subsidy phase-outs, mandatory disclosure of climate-related financial risks, and a doubling of sustainable development banks to at least $100 billion per year by 2020, the same year that all Fortune 500 companies would have to set science-based climate targets <https://sciencebasedtargets.org/>.

One of its authors, professor Nicholas Stern, the chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, said he is very optimistic that humanity can avoid dangerous global warming but is “greatly worried as to whether we will move fast enough to do so.”

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/runaway-climate-change-2030-report_us_5b8ecba3e4b0162f4727a09f <https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/runaway-climate-change-2030-report_us_5b8ecba3e4b0162f4727a09f>
============
#3. Swallow hard — and raise the price of carbon. If we are to meet climate pledges made under the Paris climate agreement, the cost of emitting carbon dioxide must rise to $50–$100 per ton by 2030, dramatically higher than the current EU price of less than $6. 

Harvard Business Review
https://hbr.org/2018/01/climate-change-is-an-overwhelming-problem-here-are-4-things-executives-can-do-today <https://hbr.org/2018/01/climate-change-is-an-overwhelming-problem-here-are-4-things-executives-can-do-today>



~~~~~~~~~~  to save farms, forests, waters, wildlife, and kids   ~~~~~~~~~~~~~

“... the report warns that we have reached a one-time “use it or lose it” moment <<https://newclimateeconomy.report/ <https://newclimateeconomy.report/>>>.

The annual commission study … recommends an action plan that would include: ramped up carbon pricing <https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/carbon-pricing-making-the-invisible-visible_us_59df3468e4b069e5b833b26f>, fossil fuel subsidy phase-outs, mandatory disclosure of climate-related financial risks, and a doubling of sustainable development banks to at least $100 billion per year by 2020, the same year that all Fortune 500 companies would have to set science-based climate targets <https://sciencebasedtargets.org/>.

One of its authors, professor Nicholas Stern, the chair of the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, said he is very optimistic that humanity can avoid dangerous global warming but is “greatly worried as to whether we will move fast enough to do so.”

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/runaway-climate-change-2030-report_us_5b8ecba3e4b0162f4727a09f <https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/runaway-climate-change-2030-report_us_5b8ecba3e4b0162f4727a09f>
============
#3. Swallow hard — and raise the price of carbon. If we are to meet climate pledges made under the Paris climate agreement, the cost of emitting carbon dioxide must rise to $50–$100 per ton by 2030, dramatically higher than the current EU price of less than $6. 

Harvard Business Review
https://hbr.org/2018/01/climate-change-is-an-overwhelming-problem-here-are-4-things-executives-can-do-today <https://hbr.org/2018/01/climate-change-is-an-overwhelming-problem-here-are-4-things-executives-can-do-today>



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