[MCN] The Paris Agreement: "The world's biggest gamble"

[Lance Olsen]

Earth’s Future First published: 24 August 2016 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000392 <https://doi.org/10.1002/2016EF000392> 

Commentary  
The world's biggest gamble

Johan Rockström <https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorStored=Rockstr%C3%B6m%2C+Johan>  Hans Joachim Schellnhuber <https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorStored=Schellnhuber%2C+Hans+Joachim>  Brian Hoskins <https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorStored=Hoskins%2C+Brian>  Veerabhadran Ramanathan <https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorStored=Ramanathan%2C+Veerabhadran>  Peter Schlosser <https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorStored=Schlosser%2C+Peter>  Guy Pierre Brasseur <https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorStored=Brasseur%2C+Guy+Pierre>  Owen Gaffney <https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorStored=Gaffney%2C+Owen>  Carlos Nobre <https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorStored=Nobre%2C+Carlos>  Malte Meinshausen <https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorStored=Meinshausen%2C+Malte>  Joeri Rogelj <https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorStored=Rogelj%2C+Joeri> Wolfgang Lucht <https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/action/doSearch?ContribAuthorStored=Lucht%2C+Wolfgang>

Abstract [ Open Access ( Free Download From Link) ]
Https://Agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/Doi/10.1002/2016EF000392 <https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2016EF000392>
The scale of the decarbonisation challenge to meet the Paris Agreement is underplayed in the public arena. It will require precipitous emissions reductions within 40 years and a new carbon sink on the scale of the ocean sink. Even then, the world is extremely likely to overshoot. A catastrophic failure of policy, for example, waiting another decade for transformative policy and full commitments to fossil‐free economies, will have irreversible and deleterious repercussions for humanity's remaining time on Earth. Only a global zero carbon roadmap will put the world on a course to phase‐out greenhouse gas emissions and create the essential carbon sinks for Earth‐system stability, without which, world prosperity is not possible.




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“The molecule of carbon dioxide has strong absorption bonds, particularly in the infrared region of the spectrum at wavelengths of from 12 to 18 microns. This is the spectral region where most of the thermal energy radiating from earth to space is concentrated. 

"By increasing the absorption of this radiation ... the carbon dioxide reduces the amount of heat energy lost by earth to outer space."

“The atmospheric engine is subtle in it operation and delicate in its adjustments.  Extra inputs of energy …  can have significant and far-reaching consequences.”

Singer, Fred S. "Human Energy Production as a process in the biosphere," Scientific American, September 1970.

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"Indeed, the relatively modest warming experienced so far (0.85 °C increase since1880) is already driving arguably dangerous impacts, including more deaths from extreme heat, widespread forest die-off from climate-driven heat stress and drought, and more extreme coastal flooding from higher storm surges resulting from sea-level rise.”

Todd Sanford, Peter C. Frumho , Amy Luers and Jay Gulledge. The climate policy narrative for a dangerously warming world. Nature Climate Change, March 2014.

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"What we are witnessing is major hydrologic change," said co-author Jay Famiglietti. 

"We see a distinctive pattern of the wet land areas of the world getting wetter -- those are the high latitudes and the tropics -- and the dry areas in between getting dryer. Embedded within the dry areas we see multiple hotspots resulting from groundwater depletion.”

https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2018-102 <https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?release=2018-102>

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“The changes experienced by the biosphere over the past century ... have raised concerns about the possibility of rapid shifts from green to desert states.” 

Richard Sole'. Scaling laws in the drier. Nature 13 September 2007

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"The big challenge is still to deliver emissions reductions at the pace and scale needed, especially in a world where economies are driven by consumption.”

Sonja van Renssen.The inconvenient truth of failed climate policies. Nature Climate Change  MAY 2018

Published online: 27 April 2018 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0155-4 <https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0155-4> 



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