[MCN] Climate change is responsible for increase in asylum seeking

[Lance Olsen]

Global Environmental Change <https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09593780>
Volume 54 <https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09593780/54/supp/C>, January 2019, Pages 239-249

Climate, conflict and forced migration

Guy J.AbelaMichaelBrottragerbJesusCrespo CuaresmacRayaMuttarakd1 <https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378018301596#!>

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.12.003 <https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2018.12.003>

Highlights

•Climate change <https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/earth-and-planetary-sciences/climatic-change> is responsible for increase in asylum seeking through conflict.
•Reduced rainfall increases conflict which in turn drive outflow of asylum seekers <https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/social-sciences/asylum-seeker>.
•Established causal relationship between climate, conflict and asylum seeking only in the recent period.

Abstract [ open access ]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378018301596 <https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0959378018301596>

Despite the lack of robust empirical evidence, a growing number of media reports attempt to link climate change to the ongoing violent conflicts in Syria and other parts of the world, as well as to the migration crisis in Europe. Exploiting bilateral data on asylum seeking applications for 157 countries over the period 2006–2015, we assess the determinants of refugee flows using a gravity model which accounts for endogenous selection in order to examine the causal link between climate, conflict and forced migration. Our results indicate that climatic conditions, by affecting drought severity and the likelihood of armed conflict, played a significant role as an explanatory factor for asylum seeking in the period 2011–2015. The effect of climate on conflict occurrence is particularly relevant for countries in Western Asia in the period 2010–2012 during when many countries were undergoing political transformation. This finding suggests that the impact of climate on conflict and asylum seeking flows is limited to specific time period and contexts.


````````````````
“ Ecosystem management must avoid two traps: falsely assuming a tame solution and inaction from overwhelming complexity.”



Ruth DeFries, Harini Nagendra. Ecosystem management as a wicked problem. Science  Special Issue: Ecosystem Earth. Apr 21, 2017 



-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <http://bigskynet.org/pipermail/missoula-community-news_bigskynet.org/attachments/20190323/d15c327c/attachment.html>