[MCN] Smith River, copper, & the switch from drill, baby, drill to mine, baby, mine

[Lance Olsen]

Oilprice.com May 05, 2019

Are We Really Facing A Battery Metal Shortage?
By Nick Cunningham <https://oilprice.com/contributors/Nick-Cunningham> - 


https://oilprice.com/Metals/Commodities/Are-We-Really-Facing-A-Battery-Metal-Shortage.html <https://oilprice.com/Metals/Commodities/Are-We-Really-Facing-A-Battery-Metal-Shortage.html>

Excerpts

Tesla says that there could be a shortage of the key metals used in the manufacturing of electric vehicles as a dearth of investment in mining fails to keep up with soaring demand.

A shortage of nickel, copper and lithium could crop up in the years ahead as the sale of EVs continues to climb, Sarah Maryssael, Tesla’s global supply manager for battery metals, told a closed-door Washington conference of miners, regulators and lawmakers, according to Reuters <https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-lithium-electric-tesla-exclusive/exclusive-tesla-expects-global-shortage-of-electric-vehicle-battery-minerals-sources-idUSKCN1S81QS?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosgenerate&stream=top>. As a result, the prices for these minerals will likely shoot up.


EVs require higher volumes of these metals than gasoline or diesel powered vehicles. For instance, EVs need twice as much copper. According to Reuters, Tesla is trying to cut its use of cobalt, a critical metal that is overwhelmingly mined in war-torn Democratic Republic of Congo where its production is associated with human rights abuses. Instead, Tesla will need more nickel.

In order to promote more mining, especially within the U.S., Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski (AK) and Democratic Senator Joe Manchin (WV) are proposing <https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-lithium-electric-exclusive/exclusive-us-seeks-to-challenge-chinas-electric-vehicle-supply-chain-dominance-idUSKCN1S81EO> legislation that would ease permitting requirements on new mines. The legislation is positioned as a national security concern, clearly with an eye on China. China controls about two-thirds of the world’s battery electric manufacturing capacity, a figure that is expected <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-02/tesla-manager-sees-risk-of-battery-minerals-shortage-in-future?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=newsletter_axiosgenerate&stream=top> to rise to 73 percent by 2021, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF). The U.S. only accounts for about 13 percent of global lithium-ion battery manufacturing capacity.

The World Bank estimates that by 2050 demand for lithium, graphite and nickel will skyrocket by 965 percent, 383 percent and 108 percent, respectively.

EV sales are rising around the world, and the deployment of solar and wind also continues to scale up. Bloomberg notes <https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-05-02/odd-rivals-electric-cars-and-solar-compete-for-the-same-parts> that many of these clean technologies actually rely on the same supply chains, and compete against one another for certain high-tech parts. As a result, some solar-component companies have to wait as long as 50 weeks for parts because EV companies are scaling up production, illustrating the bottlenecks that are beginning to appear.
In short, the clean energy transition will require gargantuan volumes of certain metals and minerals, even as the supply of those commodities appears to be lagging behind demand projections.


2004
===================================

 More Intense, More Frequent, and Longer Lasting Heat Waves in the 21st Century. 

Gerald A. Meehl and Claudia Tebaldi. 
Science, 13 AUGUST 2004

2008
================================

"All organisms live within a limited range of body temperatures …. Direct effects of climatic warming can be understood through fatal decrements in an organism's performance in growth, reproduction, foraging, immune competence, behaviors and competitiveness."
 
Hans O. Pörtner and Anthony P. Farrell. Physiology and Climate Change. 
SCIENCE 31 OCTOBER 2008       VOL 322

2009
==================================
"Observed heat wave intensities in the current decade are larger than worst-case projections."

Auroop R. Gangulya, et al. Higher trends but larger uncertainty and geographic variability in 21st century temperature and heat waves. 
PNAS, September 15, 2009.

2013
=================================
“  … organisms have a physiological response to temperature, and these responses have important consequences …. biological rates and times (e.g., growth, reproduction, mortality and activity) vary with temperature.”
 
Anthony I. Dell, Samraat Pawar and Van M. Savage, Temperature dependence of trophic interactions are driven by asymmetry of species responses and foraging strategy.
Journal of Animal Ecology 2013 
   
1970  
=========================
“What can be said with some assurance is that there is a unique and nearly ubiquitous compound, with the empirical formula H(2960)O(1480)C(1480)N(16)P(1.8)S, called living matter.  Its synthesis, on an oxidized and uncarboxylated earth, is the most intricate feat of chemical engineering ever performed - and the most delicate operation that people have ever tampered with.”

Edward S. Deevey, Jr.  Mineral Cycles. 
Scientific American, September 1970.

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