[MCN] Lifestyle of [ financially comfortable ] spender -> continued emissions -> additional heat -> “When we talk about being in a drought, the presumption is that eventually the drought will end, and conditions will return to normal,..."

[Lance Olsen]

“When we talk about being in a drought, the presumption is that eventually the drought will end, and conditions will return to normal,” Stevenson said. 

“But if we’re never returning to normal, then we need to adapt all of the ways that we manage water with the expectation that normal will continually be drier and drier every year.”

Full release
https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/946384 <https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/946384>

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Twenty-first century hydroclimate: A continually changing baseline, with more frequent extremes
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2108124119 <https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2108124119>

I have the Stevenson pdf


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If there’s one thing Ebi wants to avoid, it’s thinking of this catastrophic heat wave as the “new normal,” which she calls “really misleading” as it actually underestimates the gravity of the situation. 

“It implies we’re going from one state to another state. We’re in a period when there’s going to be ongoing change for decades.

“The new normal is not the current temperature. The new normal is the constant change.”

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/07/western-canada-burns-and-deaths-mount-after-worlds-most-extreme-heat-wave-in-modern-history/ <https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/07/western-canada-burns-and-deaths-mount-after-worlds-most-extreme-heat-wave-in-modern-history/>


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"Precipitation is just the supply side," said study coauthor Jason Smerdon, a Lamont-Doherty paleoclimatologist. 

"Temperature is on the demand side, the part that dries things out."

"If we don't see it coming in stronger in, say, the next 10 years, we might have to wonder whether we are right," said Marvel. 

"But all the models are projecting that you should see unprecedented drying soon, in a lot of places."

<<https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-05/eiac-ssf042919.php <https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2019-05/eiac-ssf042919.php>>>

Nature
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1149-8 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1149-8>

I have the pdf of this one too

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Recent Megafires Provide a Tipping Point for Desertification of Conifer Ecosystems

March 30, 10:00 - 11:00 MT

Presented by: Dan Neary <https://www.fs.usda.gov/rmrs/people/dneary>
Wildfires can produce significant hydrological and ecological impacts on forest, woodland, and grassland ecosystems depending on fire size, severity, duration, timing, fuel loads, and weather conditions. In the past several decades, wildfire conditions have changed from previous  ones in the 20th Century. Wildfires are now burning larger areas in hotter, windier, and drier weather. In addition, the timeframe for these fires has expanded by four months in some regions to 12 months in fire-prone States like California. These large fires, known as megafires (greater than 40,000 acres) are burning more wildland areas every year. Some reach the giga-fire classification (405,000+ acres) with increasing frequency. These trends are contributing to increased desertification of forest lands. This presentation examines the role of these large fires in producing desertification of wildland ecosystems.

Information and link. <https://www.fs.usda.gov/rmrs/events/science-you-can-use-spring-2022-webinar-series>


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“Whereas any one line of evidence may be weak in itself, a number of lines of evidence, taken together and found to be consistent, reinforce one another exponentially.”

Preston Cloud and Aharon Gibor. The Oxygen Cycle. 
Scientific American, September 1970







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