[MCN] Great rain for landslides, poor climate for fire insurance, drying up the food supply, ants and people trapped in place, too hot for outdoor rec, and Exxon scientists warned of trouble ahead

[Lance Olsen]

A remarkable number of landslides in California <https://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2023/01/16/california-1/>

The Landslide Blog
Since the start of 2023, California has been hit by a succession of major rainstorms. To date at least 402 landslides have been triggered.

READ MORE >> <https://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2023/01/16/california-1/>

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The Landslide Blog
https://blogs.agu.org/landslideblog/2023/01/11/rosas-cauca-1/

This is a truly extraordinary period for landslides, with so many events occurring that it is hard to decide which to cover.

Meanwhile, in Colombia a truly remarkable landslide has occurred in Rosas, Cauca.  There are some excellent Tweets providing detail, including this one containing drone footage of the slide <https://twitter.com/Yobanygf/status/1612967281536933889>:-

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Insurance denied: More Coloradans can't get homeowner's insurance because of wildfire risk

https://www.denver7.com/news/contact-denver7/insurance-denied-more-coloradans-cant-get-homeowners-insurance-because-of-wildfire-risk

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NEWS RELEASE 12-JAN-2023
Heat and drought have ‘significant influence’ on food security and agricultural production, new review argues

Heat and drought are the utmost limiting abiotic factors which pose a major threat to food security and agricultural production and are exacerbated by ‘extreme and rapid’ climate change, according to a new paper in CABI Reviews

https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/976452

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“Droughts of the twenty-first century are characterized by hotter temperatures, longer duration, and greater spatial extent …. This situation increases the vulnerability of ecosystems to drought, including a rise in drought-driven tree mortality globally (Allen et al. 2015) and anticipated ecosystem transformations from one state to another—for example, forest to a shrubland (Jiang et al. 2013). When a drought drives changes within ecosystems, there can be a ripple effect through human communities that depend on those ecosystems for critical goods and services (Millar and Stephenson 2015). …. Despite the high costs to both nature and people, current drought research, management, and policy perspectives often fail to evaluate how drought affects ecosystems and the “natural capital” they provide to human communities. Integrating these human and natural dimensions of drought is an essential step toward addressing the rising risk of drought in the twenty-first century. 

Crausbay, et al. Defining Ecological Drought for the Twenty-First Century. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. December 2017.

Open Access
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0292.1 

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16-Jan-2023 <https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/976376>
 <https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/976376>
Climate conundrum: Study finds ants aren’t altering behavior in rising temperatures <https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/976376>
NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIVERSITY <https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/976376>
PEER-REVIEWED PUBLICATION <https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/976376>
 <https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/976376>
A new study finds that ants are not adjusting their behavior in response to warming temperatures, persisting in sub-optimal microhabitats even when optimal ones were present. The finding suggests ants may not be able to adjust their behavior in response to warming ecosystems. <https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/976376>
JOURNAL <https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/976376>
Journal of Animal Ecology <https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/976376>
 <https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/976376>
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OPEN ACCESS

More people too poor to move: divergent effects of climate change on global migration patterns <https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aca6fe>
Albano Rikani et al 2023 Environ. Res. Lett. 18 024006

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Environmental Research Letters <https://iopscience.iop.org/journal/1748-9326> Published 13 January 2023 

PERSPECTIVE •
Assessing the plausibility of climate futures
Anita Engels and Jochem Marotzke 
 <https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/976376>
"The Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook sends a strong message to those who naïvely think that the current plethora of climate activities will automatically bring the world closer to achieving the Paris Agreement goals. No one should fool oneself. Second, through the new Social Plausibility Assessment Framework we also identify the societal drivers that need to become stronger or even change direction so that achieving the Paris Agreement goals becomes plausible.”

OPEN ACCESS PDF

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/acaf90/pdf <https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/acaf90/pdf>

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Journal of Forestry, 2022, 453–472 
https://doi.org/10.1093/jofore/fvab072 
Received August 11, 2021; Accepted December 15, 2021 Advance Access publication February 17, 2022 

Review Article - recreation 
Climate Change and Recreation in the Western United States: Effects and Opportunities for Adaptation

Anna B. Miller, Patricia L. Winter, José J. Sánchez, 
David L. Peterson, and Jordan W. Smith
 

Abstract 
Climate change is affecting natural resources globally, altering ecosystems that support outdoor recreation. In the western United States, effects such as warming temperatures, increased drought, reduced snowpack, and widespread wildfires will change the outdoor recreation landscape. In this article, we synthesize the state of science regarding the effects of climate change on outdoor recreation in the western US and summarize adaptation options that can reduce the consequences of climate change, considering the adaptive capacities of recreationists and managers. We draw from a series of climate change assessments in which researchers and managers collaborated to understand recreation vulnerability to climate change and develop effective adaptations. We conclude that building climate resilience requires a shift in planning and resource allocation decisions, including (1) longer-term planning timeframes, (2) interdisciplinary teams, and (3) collaboration among agencies, recreation providers, and communities. 

Study Implications: Outdoor recreation in the western US is changing due to the effects of climate change. Organized by five recreational categories, this study describes the vulnerability of outdoor recreation to climate change and synthesizes strategies to adapt recreation management to these vulnerabilities. Multiple direct and indirect factors influence individual recreationists’ and land managers’ capacities to adapt to climate change, as we describe through a diagram. Climate- resilient land management requires long-term planning, integration of multiple resource areas, and collaboration across agencies, recreation providers, and communities. 

Keywords: outdoor recreation, protected areas, climate change, adaptation, long-term planning 

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NEWS RELEASE 18-JAN-2023
What can we learn from the impacts of rapid climate change on past societies?
Impacts of rapid climate change on past human societies offer lessons for global warming preparation
Peer-Reviewed Publication <https://www.eurekalert.org/releaseguidelines>

UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA AT GREENSBORO

Greensboro, N.C. (January 17, 2023) – A comprehensive new study led by Professor Gwen Robbins Schug at UNC Greensboro traces the impact of rapid climate change events on humans over the past 5,000 years and offers lessons for today’s policymakers. The meta-analysis of approximately a decade’s worth of bioarchaeology data was published today as a Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences perspective article <https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2209472120> by a team of 25 authors representing 21 universities. 

“In recent years, bioarchaeologists – who examine human remains to understand past populations – have begun focusing on the impact of climate change events on past societies,” Dr. Robbins Schug <https://biology.uncg.edu/people/gwen-robbins-schug/> says. “We have found evidence that – despite popular misconceptions – environmental migration, competition, violence, and societal collapse are not inevitable in the face of rapid climate change.”

Schug and her collaborators assessed human skeleton data and findings from 37 bioarchaeology studies of populations living from 5,000 years ago to 400 years ago. The societies represented spanned the globe, hailing from present-day America, Argentina, Chile, China, Ecuador, England, India, Japan, Niger, Oman, Pakistan, Peru, Thailand, and Vietnam. 

They found that climate change has been most destructive for hierarchical, urban societies when they lacked flexibility to respond to environmental challenges. “Increased reliance on agriculture can be a problem,” Robbins Schug says. “Small, interconnected rural communities with high utilization of local resources and diverse dietary sources from herding, small-scale farming, hunting, fishing, and gathering were more resilient.” 

The researchers also learned that, when pressured by climate change events, urban societies with high levels of economic inequality were at highest risk for infectious disease and violence. “Diseases and violence spread,” Schug says. “If you want to protect a society, large segments of a population cannot be left vulnerable. It’s a zero-sum game.” 

As the world warms, the scientists hope their current and future findings can help policymakers set priorities that reduce pandemic diseases, poverty, hunger, and violence. 

“Successful strategies,” Schug says, “will support rural livelihoods, encourage diverse practices for obtaining food and other resources, foster equitable distribution, retain our capacity to mobilize when circumstances require, and encourage mutually beneficial relationships among groups and species.”


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NEWS RELEASE 12-JAN-2023
ExxonMobil’s own global warming projections predicted climate warming, quantitative analysis shows
Summary author: Walter Beckwith
Peer-Reviewed Publication <https://www.eurekalert.org/releaseguidelines>
AMERICAN ASSOCIATION FOR THE ADVANCEMENT OF SCIENCE (AAAS)

Since the late 1970s and early 1980s, climate models used internally by ExxonMobil’s own scientists accurately projected and skillfully modeled global warming due to fossil fuel burning and produced results that were consistent with independent academic and government climate models at the time, according to a new Review. Although it has been widely reported that Exxon has known about the threat of global warming since the 1970s, “this study is the first quantitative review of the company’s early climate science,” according to a related press release included in the press package. Internal documents disclosed in 2015 have suggested that ExxonMobil scientists have informed company executives about dangerous human-driven climate warming since at least 1977. However, while the text of these documents has been examined in detail, far less attention has been given to numerical and graphical data in these documents related to explicit projections of future warming. In this Review, Geoffrey Supran and colleagues systematically evaluated the accuracy of ExxonMobil’s internal climate modeling projections – some of the most abundant and robust in the industry – and compared their performance against academic and government models. 

Supran et al. analyzed 32 internal documents produced by ExxonMobil scientists between 1977 and 2002 and 72 peer-reviewed scientific publications authored or coauthored by ExxonMobil scientists between 1982 and 2014 – a dataset that constitutes all publicly available internal documents and research publications disclosed by the company. According to the findings, the climate projections reported by ExxonMobil scientists during this period were accurate in predicting subsequent global climate warming, suggesting that the company understood as much about climate change as academic and government scientists did, despite their active efforts to sow uncertainty and doubt. “These findings corroborate and add quantitative precision to assertions by scholars, journalists, lawyers, politicians, and others that ExxonMobil accurately foresaw the threat of human-caused global warming, both prior and parallel to orchestrating lobbying and propaganda campaigns to delay climate action, and refute claims by ExxonMobil Corp and its defenders that these assertions are incorrect,” write Supran et al.


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“The most penetrating criticism I’ve seen of renewable energy is that it’s being promoted at massive scale to reassure us that we can go on as before, with little if any change of lifestyle. And yet, it raises a big and uncomfortable question. Do we mine, baby, mine, to ensure no reduction of living standards, no uncomfortable change of lifestyle?”

“There’s no doubt that we need to build and buy the machinery needed to generate renewable energy from solar and wind. The mining basic to the building is going to happen. There’s no stopping it. The need for building solar and wind capacity is too great to deny.

“But there’s no denying that much of the demand is driven by striving for a comfort zone well beyond meeting anything that deserves the name of necessity. Recognizing this uncomfortable reality, 50 non-governmental organizations have recently scolded the World Bank for its Climate-Smart Mining proposal—which focuses a lot on how much mining would need to increase and not at all on how we need to reduce consumption <https://miningwatch.ca/news/2019/5/1/over-50-organizations-urge-world-bank-boost-recycling-circular-economy-non-mining>.

“All things considered, I have to agree with the irony in 16-year-old Greta Thunberg’s crisply eloquent, ‘We live in a strange world. Where we think we can buy or build our way out of a crisis that has been created by buying and building things.’ ’’

The Paradox Of Building America's Green Lifestyle Grid
Lance Olsen
https://mountainjournal.org/renewable-energy-solves-one-problem-but-creates-another
==================================

“Droughts of the twenty-first century are characterized by hotter temperatures, longer duration, and greater spatial extent …. This situation increases the vulnerability of ecosystems to drought, including a rise in drought-driven tree mortality globally (Allen et al. 2015) and anticipated ecosystem transformations from one state to another—for example, forest to a shrubland (Jiang et al. 2013). When a drought drives changes within ecosystems, there can be a ripple effect through human communities that depend on those ecosystems for critical goods and services (Millar and Stephenson 2015). …. Despite the high costs to both nature and people, current drought research, management, and policy perspectives often fail to evaluate how drought affects ecosystems and the “natural capital” they provide to human communities. Integrating these human and natural dimensions of drought is an essential step toward addressing the rising risk of drought in the twenty-first century. 

Crausbay, et al. Defining Ecological Drought for the Twenty-First Century. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. December 2017.

Open Access
https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0292.1 

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

“… the serious meaning in a concept lies in the difference it will make to someone if it is true.”

William James (1842 –1910)
Pragmatism. Meridian Books, 1955



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