[MCN] Global Change Biology "Protected area expansion should focus on the contributions of PAs to outcomes not only within PA systems themselves, but across entire regions."

[Lance Olsen]

 <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/13652486>
RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
 <http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/>
Conservation planning for retention, not just protection
Pablo Jose Negret <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/authored-by/Negret/Pablo+Jose>, Ruben Venegas <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/authored-by/Venegas/Ruben>, Laura J. Sonter <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/authored-by/Sonter/Laura+J.>, Hugh P. Possingham <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/authored-by/Possingham/Hugh+P.>, Martine Maron <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/authored-by/Maron/Martine>
First published: 05 March 2024 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17211 <https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17211>
SECTIONS <>PDF <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1111/gcb.17211>TOOLS <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.17211#> SHARE <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.17211#>
Abstract
ENTHIS LINK GOES TO A ENGLISH SECTION <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.17211#section-1-en>ESTHIS LINK GOES TO A SPANISH SECTION <https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/gcb.17211#section-2-es>
Most protected area (PA) planning aims to improve biota representation within the PA system, but this does not necessarily achieve the best outcomes for biota retention across regions when we also consider habitat loss in areas outside the PA system. Here, we assess the implications that different PA expansion strategies can have on the retention of species habitat across an entire region. Using retention of forest habitat for Colombia's 550 forest-dependent bird species as our outcome variable, we found that when a minimum of 30% of each species' habitat was included in the PA system, a pattern of PA expansion targeting areas at highest deforestation risk (risk-prevention) led to the retention, on average, of 7.2% more forest habitat per species by 2050 than did a pattern that targeted areas at lowest risk (risk-avoidance). The risk-prevention approach cost more per km2 of land conserved, but it was more cost-effective in retaining habitat in the landscape (50%–69% lower cost per km2 of avoided deforestation). To have the same effectiveness preventing habitat loss in Colombia, the risk-avoidance approach would require more than twice as much protected area, costing three times more in the process. Protected area expansion should focus on the contributions of PAs to outcomes not only within PA systems themselves, but across entire regions.


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Greta Thunberg boils the basics down to just 5 words: “… and it will get worse”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhQVustYV24 <https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rhQVustYV24>


She knows it will get worse because climate scientists had made the same point; e.g., ….


Camilo Mora: “ ….  our choices for deadly heat are now between more of it or a lot more of it.”
https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1161/circoutcomes.117.004233 <https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1161/circoutcomes.117.004233>

Michael Mann: ““A new normal makes it sound like we have arrived in a new position, and that's where we're going to be. But if we continue to burn fossil fuels ... we are going to ... get worse and worse droughts, and heat waves, and super storms, and floods, and wildfires.”
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/climate-change-is-making-wildfires-more-extreme-heres-how <https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/climate-change-is-making-wildfires-more-extreme-heres-how>

Kate Marvel: “The whole idea that everything’s going to work out isn’t really helpful because it isn’t going to work out ” said Kate Marvel a climate scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Climate change is going to worsen to a point where millions of lives, homes, and species are put at risk she said. 
https://newrepublic.com/article/151608/case-against-climate-pessimism <https://newrepublic.com/article/151608/case-against-climate-pessimism>

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“We don’t need to guard [ i.e., defend/protect ourselves ]  against depression, against anger, against despair when it comes to climate change.”

http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2017/07/we_are_not_alarmed_enough_about_climate_change.html <http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2017/07/we_are_not_alarmed_enough_about_climate_change.html>


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Excerpt:  "Environmental psychologist Susi Moser, also talks about the importance of acknowledging our underlying fears and distress about climate change as an important coping strategy. Moser (2012) calls it ‘the bravest thing’ – getting real, accepting reality without illusions, and accepting that better tomorrows may not come.”

https://www.isthishowyoufeel.com/blog/how-do-people-cope-with-feelings-about-climate-change-so-that-they-stay-engaged-and-take-action <https://www.isthishowyoufeel.com/blog/how-do-people-cope-with-feelings-about-climate-change-so-that-they-stay-engaged-and-take-action>


My own view: <<https://mountainjournal.org/why-rising-temps-mean-the-end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it>>

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