[MCN] "... hotter droughts increasingly associated with widespread forest die-off ..."

[Lance Olsen]

nature <https://www.nature.com/>  nature communications <https://www.nature.com/ncomms>  articles <https://www.nature.com/ncomms/articles?type=article>  article
Article
Open access <https://www.springernature.com/gp/open-research/about/the-fundamentals-of-open-access-and-open-research>
Published: 05 April 2022
Global field observations of tree die-off reveal hotter-drought fingerprint for Earth’s forests

William M. Hammond <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-29289-2#auth-William_M_-Hammond-Aff1>, A. Park Williams <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-29289-2#auth-A__Park-Williams-Aff2>, John T. Abatzoglou <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-29289-2#auth-John_T_-Abatzoglou-Aff3>, Henry D. Adams <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-29289-2#auth-Henry_D_-Adams-Aff4>, Tamir Klein <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-29289-2#auth-Tamir-Klein-Aff5>, Rosana López <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-29289-2#auth-Rosana-L_pez-Aff6>, Cuauhtémoc Sáenz-Romero <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-29289-2#auth-Cuauht_moc-S_enz_Romero-Aff7>, Henrik Hartmann <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-29289-2#auth-Henrik-Hartmann-Aff8>, David D. Breshears <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-29289-2#auth-David_D_-Breshears-Aff9> & Craig D. Allen <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-29289-2#auth-Craig_D_-Allen-Aff10> 
Nature Communications <https://www.nature.com/ncomms> volume 13, Article number: 1761 (2022) Cite this article <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-29289-2#citeas>
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Abstract
Earth’s forests face grave challenges in the Anthropocene, including hotter droughts increasingly associated with widespread forest die-off events. But despite the vital importance of forests to global ecosystem services, their fates in a warming world remain highly uncertain. Lacking is quantitative determination of commonality in climate anomalies associated with pulses of tree mortality—from published, field-documented mortality events—required for understanding the role of extreme climate events in overall global tree die-off patterns. Here we established a geo-referenced global database documenting climate-induced mortality events spanning all tree-supporting biomes and continents, from 154 peer-reviewed studies since 1970. Our analysis quantifies a global “hotter-drought fingerprint” from these tree-mortality sites—effectively a hotter and drier climate signal for tree mortality—across 675 locations encompassing 1,303 plots. Frequency of these observed mortality-year climate conditions strongly increases nonlinearly under projected warming. Our database also provides initial footing for further community-developed, quantitative, ground-based monitoring of global tree mortality.



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“A new area of study is the field that some of us are beginning to call social traps. The term refers to situations in society that contain traps formally like a fish trap, where men or whole societies get themselves started in some direction or some set of relationships that later prove to be unpleasant or lethal and that they see no easy way to back out of or to avoid."

John Platt. Social Traps. American Psychologist, August 1973

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“Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly from one state to another when they are forced across critical thresholds. 
Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole can react in the same way and is approaching a planetary-scale critical transition 
as a result of human influence."

Barnovsky et al. Approaching a state shift in Earth’s biosphere. Nature Volume 486, 07 June 2012
https://www.nature.com/articles/nature11018


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