[MCN] Exposure of western United States bird communities to predicted high severity fire

[Lance Olsen]

 nature communications <https://www.nature.com/ncomms>  articles <https://www.nature.com/ncomms/articles?type=article>  article
Article
Open access <https://www.springernature.com/gp/open-science/about/the-fundamentals-of-open-access-and-open-research>
Published: 17 January 2026
Exposure of western United States bird communities to predicted high severity fire

Kari E. Norman <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-68480-7#auth-Kari_E_-Norman-Aff1-Aff2>, Andrew N. Stillman <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-68480-7#auth-Andrew_N_-Stillman-Aff3>, Sean A. Parks <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-68480-7#auth-Sean_A_-Parks-Aff4-Aff5>, Courtney L. Davis <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-68480-7#auth-Courtney_L_-Davis-Aff3> & Gavin M. Jones <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-68480-7#auth-Gavin_M_-Jones-Aff1-Aff2> 
Nature Communications <https://www.nature.com/ncomms> , Article number:  (2026) Cite this article <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-68480-7#citeas>
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We are providing an unedited version of this manuscript to give early access to its findings. Before final publication, the manuscript will undergo further editing. Please note there may be errors present which affect the content, and all legal disclaimers apply.

Abstract
Fire is a pervasive biogeographic process that shapes biodiversity globally and is now experiencing unprecedented changes. Despite well documented impacts of fires on biodiversity, we do not know where biodiversity might be most vulnerable to changing fire regimes. We leverage recent advancements in fire forecasting and species distribution modeling to assess the exposure of bird species richness, community uniqueness, and functional richness to altered fire regimes in the western United States. We find that 55-58% of biodiversity hotspots are classified as “refugia”, where high biodiversity intersects with predicted low severity burn areas. In contrast, 24-30% of biodiversity hotspots are classified as “areas of concern”, where high biodiversity intersected with predicted high severity burn areas. Over half (52-60%) of “areas of concern” occur in geographies with historically low-severity fire regimes; a fire regime mismatch indicating a potential threat to biodiversity. We find that species with a preference for high-density vegetation and with shallower beak depth are most likely to be exposed to high severity fire, indicating a potential for habitat losses for species with these traits. Our findings reinforce calls for targeted management to reduce impacts of future fire where it is predicted to be outside the historical range of variation.

 
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“One can quibble with with some assumptions or tweak Smil's calculations, but the bottom line will not change, 
only the time it may take humanity to reach a crisis point.”

Stephen Running. “Approaching the Limits” Science 15 March 2013.

Book review. Harvesting the Biosphere: What we have taken from Nature. by Vaclav Smil .  
MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 2012. 315 pp. $29, £19.95. ISBN 9780262018562.

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