[MCN] I have pdf: Ecosystem management: Actions experts favor the most

Lance Olsen lance at wildrockies.org
Sat Feb 25 12:48:57 EST 2017

Environ. Res. Lett. 7 (2012) 014016 (8pp) 

Assessing confidence in management adaptation 
approaches for climate-sensitive ecosystems
J M West, S H Julius and C P Weaver

Global Change Research Program, National Center 
for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research 
and Development, US Environmental Protection 
Agency, 1200 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW (8601P), 
Washington, DC 20460, USA

Received 16 November 2011 Accepted for 
publication 25 January 2012 Published 15 February 
2012 Online at stacks.iop.org/ERL/7/014016

Keywords: climate change, adaptation, ecosystems, 
resilience, management, uncertainty, confidence

Abstract [bold added]
A number of options are available for adapting 
ecosystem management to improve resilience in the 
face of climatic changes. However, uncertainty 
exists as to the effectiveness of these options. 
A report prepared for the US Climate Change 
Science Program reviewed adaptation options for a 
range of federally managed systems in the United 
States. The report included a qualitative 
uncertainty analysis of conceptual approaches to 
adaptation derived from the review. The 
approaches included reducing anthropogenic 
stressors, protecting key ecosystem features, 
maintaining representation, replicating, 
restoring, identifying refugia and relocating 
organisms. The results showed that the expert 
teams had the greatest scientific confidence in 
adaptation options that reduce anthropogenic 
stresses. Confidence in other approaches was 
lower because of gaps in understanding of 
ecosystem function, climate change impacts on 
ecosystems, and management effectiveness. This 
letter discusses insights gained from the 
confidence exercise and proposes strategies for 
improving future assessments of confidence for 
management adaptations to climate change.

"Š the race between climate dynamics and climate 
policy will be a close one Š." and " Š requires 
an industrial revolution for sustainability 
starting now." 

Hans Joachim Schellenhuber. "Global warming: Stop worrying, start panicking?"
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 
September 23, 2008  vol. 105  no. 38

"Just remember, this is not your grandfather's 
atmosphere. Things are different now, and will 
get even more-so in the coming years   Š   "

"Leonardo da Vinci's dictum, 'Water is the driver 
of nature,' is justified on meteorological 
grounds alone."

Penman, H.L. The Water Cycle. Scientific American, September 1970

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