[MCN] A city begins bracing itself for climate change

[Lance Olsen]

Vancouver Sun Published on: February 26, 2017
Climate change predicted to transform Vancouver 
into San Diego, but at a heavy cost
http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/climate-change-predicted-to-transform-vancouver-into-san-diego-but-at-a-heavy-cost
LARRY PYNN

A major climate-change study predicts 
temperatures in Metro Vancouver will exceed those 
of present-day Southern California in the coming 
decades.

Frost and ice will become virtually a thing of 
the past, heating bills will drop, and farm crops 
will flourish virtually year-round in the Fraser 
Valley.

That's the good news.

On the down side - and there is plenty of it - 
the region can expect: air-conditioning costs to 
soar; worsening smog and associated health 
problems; increased forest fires and water 
shortages; summer droughts followed by severe 
fall rain events; and an influx of invasive 
species threatening forests and agriculture.

A new 70-page study, Climate Projections for 
Metro Vancouver, predicts changes in temperature 
and precipitation that will affect everything 
from sewage pipes to ski hills in the 2050s - 
just 33 years distant - and 2080s. Pacific 
Climate Impacts Consortium, based at the 
University of Victoria, assisted in the report.

The report's author, Jeff Carmichael, division 
manager of utilities research and innovation for 
Metro Vancouver, said the findings are meant to 
help the region and its member municipalities 
plan for the future while doing their own part to 
reduce greenhouse gases.

It is common for municipalities now to have staff 
specifically devoted to climate-change issues.

"Let's make sure that all of Metro Vancouver - 
everything we do - is aware of the most 
up-to-date information," he said. "We'd better 
prepare and adapt for the climate that's coming."

Metro Vancouver plans to launch a more detailed 
study later this year into planning for 
stormwater pipes to ensure they can handle the 
more intense rain events to come. Municipalities 
on the rainy North Shore will have to address 
similar issues, while low-lying areas such as 
Richmond and Delta must consider factors such as 
the impact of rising ocean levels, storm surges 
and altered river flows.

Parks staff are also considering how climate 
change will affect plant and animal species under 
a warming scenario.

The report assumes a "business as usual" approach 
to global greenhouse gas emissions, and would 
have to be updated if governments adopt serious 
and swift measures to address the problem.

THE HEAT IS ON

Sun worshippers will revel under future climate 
change, but you'd be wise to invest in sun screen.

The Metro Vancouver study predicts that day-time 
high summer temperatures in the region will 
increase 3.7 C by the 2050s and 6 C by the 2080s. 
Indian summers are virtually guaranteed to linger 
into fall.

The bottom line is that "Vancouver would be 
warmer than present-day San Diego by the 2050s."

The report notes that savings in heating costs 
due to rising temperatures will be offset by the 
need for air conditioning. Areas of lower 
elevation, where most buildings are located, will 
see more demand for air conditioning than 
present-day Kamloops by the 2050s.

The building industry will shoulder some of the 
responsibility for finding solutions.

Installing natural and/or passive shading and 
green roofs on current and future buildings could 
become more cost effective and help to 
"future-proof" buildings for climate change.

City of North Vancouver mayor Darrell Mussatto, 
who is also chair of Metro Vancouver's utilities 
committee, noted that the region is trying to be 
proactive - water restrictions could begin as 
early as May 1 in 2018, compared with the current 
May 15, which is consistent with predictions for 
climate change.

"We are taking this report seriously," he said.

A regional study is also looking at the pros and 
cons of residential water metering. Longer-term 
solutions may include deepening of the intake at 
Coquitlam reservoir and raising the height of the 
Seymour dam to create more storage capacity for 
drier periods.

While warmer temperatures may negatively impact 
snow sports on the North Shore, they might 
actually enhance tourism in summer.

WHEN IT RAINS IT POURS

Bigger and stronger umbrellas may be on the 
horizon as the region copes with more dramatic 
rainfall events.

Rainfall in autumn is expected to increase 11 per 
cent by 2050 and 20 per cent by 2080, posing a 
threat to pipe infrastructure and a potential 
risk to people.

Intense rain events may increase the risk of 
landslides in mountain areas, along with 
turbidity in drinking water reservoirs.

Based on current infrastructure, "we could expect 
periods of flooding, damage to property, and 
risks to human health," the report finds. In 
addition to making new water pipes bigger, 
municipalities are installing "bioswales" in the 
urban landscape to absorb rainwater and reduce 
impact on drains and creeks.

Warmer temperatures and increased rainfall will 
also erode the winter snowpack, limiting water 
supplies available in summer.

Dave Campbell, head of B.C's River Forecast 
Centre, agrees with that prediction, adding that 
while the coast typically receives bigger 
snowpacks than the Interior, its proximity to the 
ocean increases the chances of precipitation 
falling as rain.

"The temperatures are really near that 
transitional point," he said. "It tends to be 
quite sensitive. A degree or two warming makes 
the difference between rain or snow, whereas in 
the Interior it may go from minus-5 to minus-2 
and it's still falling as snow."

LONGER GROWING SEASON COUNTERED BY INCREASED PESTS

Our ability to purchase fresh local produce for 
much of the year will be a boon to consumers.

Farmers in the Fraser Valley will be able to grow 
crops virtually year-round under a warming 
climate. At lower elevations, 45 days will be 
added to the growing season by the 2050s and 56 
days by the 2080s, the climate-change report for 
Metro Vancouver predicts.

Farmers may seize the opportunity to plant more 
valuable crops and can expect earlier harvests.

But those benefits will be countered by increased 
pests and plant diseases. And variations in 
temperature and precipitation may cause 
pollinators to emerge at the wrong time.

Brent Harris is a fifth-generation Delta farmer 
who grows mixed crops - potatoes, beans, peas, 
corn and grain. He likes the idea of a longer 
growing season "although we might all be under 
the ocean by then," but he believes that farmers 
will have to adapt to more extreme weather events 
year-round.

Last year he planted his corn in late April - the 
earliest date ever, by 10 to 14 days - because of 
the warm weather and dry fields. On the other 
hand, the pond on his property was frozen for 
skating for a full month this winter - something 
that has never happened before. He also recalls 
2010 when his potato crop was ruined by wet 
weather.

"We don't want to get lulled into complacency, 
and start assuming you'll be able to plant and 
harvest on certain days," said Harris.

Ted van der Gulik, a former senior engineer in 
the Ministry of Agriculture who is president of 
Partnership for Water Sustainability in B.C., 
notes that the longer growing season and hotter 
weather will increase the need for irrigation.

There is potential for irrigated farming to 
increase from 15,000 hectares to 35,000 in Metro 
Vancouver, he said, but new infrastructure will 
have to be built.

The regional government currently supplies water 
to less than 470 hectares - most greenhouses on a 
metered system. That leaves farmers to use their 
own wells or surface water sources, including 
from the Fraser River pumped from ditches.

"Irrigation systems will have to become more 
efficient and also managed properly to make sure 
water taken and applied is beneficial and not 
wasted," he said.

Reduced flows on the Fraser combined with rising 
ocean levels will allow salt to expand its reach 
upriver to Pattullo Bridge by 2050, he added.

"Water will have to be drawn between tide cycles 
and there is no guarantee that sufficient water 
will be available."

It's also important that rainwater is allowed to 
replenish aquifers during winter rains, he 
continued, noting that urban development works 
against that.

"The water runs off the roadways, rooftops and 
parking lots and enters the surface waterways and 
makes its way out to the ocean. This water is 
lost and cannot be used in summer months when we 
need the freshwater resources."

INVADERS ON THE HORIZON

As the climate changes, some plants and animals 
will thrive and adapt, but others will perish.

Hotter summers with less rain will negatively 
impact both terrestrial and aquatic species. 
Salmon in the Fraser River system are already 
experiencing mortality trying to return to 
excessively warm streams to spawn.

Invasive species "may be better able to thrive in 
changing conditions and may out-compete native 
species," says the report.

Invaders such as purple loosestrife, diffuse 
knapweed, hawkweed, cheatgrass, Scotch broom, 
Eurasian milfoil and Dalmatian toadflax are 
already well established in B.C. Others, such as 
red-eared slider turtles in Metro Vancouver and 
Argentine ants in Victoria, threaten to expand 
their range as the climate warms.

Gail Wallin, executive director of the Invasive 
Plant Council of B.C., said that yellow 
starthistle is just one invasive plant lurking 
just south of the Canada-U. S. border in Montana. 
"It would have a huge impact to our native 
grasslands," she warns. "It's poisonous to 
horses, too."

Another threat is the nutria, a beaver-like 
mammal introduced decades ago for the fur market 
in the Pacific Northwest and now well-established 
in neighbouring Washington state. It consumes 
one-quarter of its body weight daily and also 
causes damage through burrowing, including into 
dams and dikes.

Even without pests, climate change will affect 
local forests, reducing growth and increasing 
mortality.

Increased wildfires threaten to "dramatically 
affect the forest structure," the report warns.

Plants may suffer from heat stress and sun scald, 
increasing demand for heat-tolerant plants.

It all adds up to big changes on the horizon for 
Metro Vancouver residents. There will be winners 
and losers, but everyone will be significantly 
impacted by the climate changes to come.


-- 
  =-------------------------------------------------------------===----------------------------------------------------------------=
"Š the race between climate dynamics and climate 
policy will be a close one Š." and " Š requires 
an industrial revolution for sustainability 
starting now." 

Hans Joachim Schellenhuber. "Global warming: Stop worrying, start panicking?"
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 
September 23, 2008  vol. 105  no. 38
=======================================================================

"Just remember, this is not your grandfather's 
atmosphere. Things are different now, and will 
get even more-so in the coming years   Š   "

http://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2015/12/02/the-coming-winter-part-two-the-elephant-in-the-room/
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"Leonardo da Vinci's dictum, 'Water is the driver 
of nature,' is justified on meteorological 
grounds alone."

Penman, H.L. The Water Cycle. Scientific American, September 1970











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