[MCN] A plausible-enough outlook for fish survival in Montana lakes with more combustion of fossil fuels

[Lance Olsen]

Nature Climate Change  July 8, 2019

Fish die-offs are concurrent with thermal extremes in north temperate lakes
Aaron Till <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0520-y#auth-1>, Andrew L. Rypel <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0520-y#auth-2>, Andrew Bray <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0520-y#auth-3> & Samuel B. Fey <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0520-y#auth-4> 

Abstract
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0520-y <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0520-y>

As environmental temperatures continue to rise and organisms experience novel and potentially lethal conditions1 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0520-y#ref-CR1>,2 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0520-y#ref-CR2>,3 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0520-y#ref-CR3>,4 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0520-y#ref-CR4>,5 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0520-y#ref-CR5>, the possibility of increased mass mortality events for animal populations appears likely1 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0520-y#ref-CR1>,6 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0520-y#ref-CR6>. Yet, due to die-off rarity and unpredictability, there have been few large-scale attempts to quantify the relationship between mass die-offs and local environmental temperatures. Here, we address this issue by analysing a database of 502 freshwater fish die-offs combined with lake-specific temperature profiles simulated for north temperate lake ecosystems. Die-offs driven by extreme summer conditions occurred disproportionately in lakes with warmer average surface temperatures and during periods of extreme heat. In contrast, we observed no relationships between current thermal extremes and die-offs attributed to infectious disease or winter environmental conditions. We forecast fish die-offs driven by summer environmental conditions to double by [i.e., before] mid-century for north temperate lakes (2041–2059) and to increase more than fourfold by late century (2081–2099), particularly at southern latitudes. These results expose a direct link between novel temperature regimes and the increased probability of catastrophic ecological events in freshwater ecosystems
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“The most painful and expensive way to deal with global climate change will be to ignore it until 
something happens that elicits powerful public demands for immediate and Draconian action.”
 
Jonathan Lash. “As the earth heats up. “  
Journal of Commerce, August 16, 1996.
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“Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole ... is approaching a 
planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence."

Barnovsky et al. Approaching a state shift in Earth’s biosphere. Nature Volume 486, 07 June 2012

doi:10.1038/nature11018


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