[MCN] A plausible-enough scenario for Montana streams if we keep firing up the coal, oil, and natural gas

[Lance Olsen]

Nature Climate Change Published: 01 July 2019 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#article-info>

A simple model predicts how warming simplifies wild food webs
Eoin J. O’Gorman <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#auth-1>, Owen L. Petchey <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#auth-2>, Katy J. Faulkner <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#auth-3>, Bruno Gallo <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#auth-4>, Timothy A. C. Gordon <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#auth-5>, Joana Neto-Cerejeira <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#auth-6>, Jón S. Ólafsson <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#auth-7>, Doris E. Pichler <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#auth-8>, Murray S. A. Thompson <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#auth-9> & Guy Woodward <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#auth-10> 
Abstract
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x>

Warming increases the metabolic demand of consumers1 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR1>, strengthening their feeding interactions2 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR2>. This could alter energy fluxes3 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR3>,4 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR4>,5 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR5> and even amplify extinction rates within the food web6 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR6>,7 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR7>,8 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR8>. Such effects could simplify the structure and dynamics of ecological networks9 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR9>,10 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR10>, although an empirical test in natural systems has been lacking. Here, we tested this hypothesis by characterizing around 50,000 directly observed feeding interactions across 14 naturally heated stream ecosystems11 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR11>,12 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR12>,13 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR13>,14 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR14>,15 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR15>. We found that higher temperature simplified food-web structure and shortened the pathways of energy flux between consumers and resources. A simple allometric diet breadth model10 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR10>,16 <https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0513-x#ref-CR16>predicted 68–82% of feeding interactions and the effects of warming on key food-web properties. We used model simulations to identify the underlying mechanism as a change in the relative diversity and abundance of consumers and their resources. This model shows how warming can reduce the stability of aquatic ecosystems by eroding the structural integrity of the food web. Given these fundamental drivers, such responses are expected to be manifested more broadly and could be predicted using our modelling framework and knowledge of how warming alters some routinely measured characteristics of organisms.
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“The most painful and expensive way to deal with global climate change will be to ignore it until 
something happens that elicits powerful public demands for immediate and Draconian action.”
 
Jonathan Lash. “As the earth heats up. “  
Journal of Commerce, August 16, 1996.
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“Here we review evidence that the global ecosystem as a whole ... is approaching a 
planetary-scale critical transition as a result of human influence."

Barnovsky et al. Approaching a state shift in Earth’s biosphere. Nature Volume 486, 07 June 2012

doi:10.1038/nature11018


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