[MCN] Part 1-Economic growth ->increased CO2 emissions : Part 2- Hard decisions ahead for species conservation

[Lance Olsen]

First, January 27, 2022 Wall Street Journal headline and summary — 

U.S. Economy Grew Rapidly Last Quarter <https://www.wsj.com/articles/us-economy-bounced-back-q4-gdp-11643235508?mod=hp_lead_pos2&mod=hp_lead_pos1>
The U.S. economy grew at a 6.9% annual rate in the final quarter of 2021, and growth for the year was 5.5%, the fastest in nearly four decades as the country rebounded quickly from the pandemic-induced recession.

Now this --

“The growth in CO2 emissions closely follows the growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) corrected for improvements in energy efficiency.”

P. Friedlingstein, et al. “Update on CO2 emissions.”
Nature Geoscience. Published online: 21 November 2010

And then, this —

“Changes in world GDP (WGDP) have a significant effect on CO2 concentrations, so that years of above-trend WGDP are years of greater rise of CO2 concentrations.” 

Granados et al. Climate change and the world economy: short-run determinants of atmospheric CO2. 
Environmental science & policy 21 (2012) 50–62" 

———————————————————

Now these …

‘Triage’ is a dirty word in some conservation circles, but like many dirty words, it describes something common. Whether they admit it or not, conservationists have long had to make decisions about what to save.

"As more and more admit it, open discussion about how the decisions are best made — by concentrating on particular species, or particular places, or absolute costs, or any other criterion — becomes possible. Whichever criteria come into play, one thing remains constant. The decisions have to be made quickly."

Emma Marris, "What To Let Go.” NATURE November 8, 2007

https://www.nature.com/articles/450152a.pdf

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 Extinction can be a done deal, felt only after a delay

Extinction as a done deal has been described in the language of “extinction debt.”

 When cast in this language, the “debt’ isn’t “paid off” until — after a delay, or lag time — a species or community of species is finally gone. 

Many studies have already sorted through the evidence on extinction debt, tracing extinction back to actions/conditions/policies that set the done deal in motion. 

————————————

Review Extinction debt: a challenge for biodiversity conservation <https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169534709001918>
https://www.sciencedirect.com › science › article › abs › pii <https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169534709001918>
by M Kuussaari · 2009 · Cited by 1175 — Accumulating evidence suggests that such extinction debts pose a significant but often unrecognized challenge for biodiversity conservation across a

by M Kuussaari · ‎2009 · ‎Cited by 1019 · 


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PNAS April 30, 2013 

Europe’s other debt crisis caused by the long legacy of future extinctions 
https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/110/18/7342.full.pdf <https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/110/18/7342.full.pdf>
Stefan Dullinger et al

Keywords
extinction debt | socioeconomic history | lag effect
Abstract
https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/110/18/7342.full.pdf <https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/110/18/7342.full.pdf>

Rapid economic development in the past century has translated into severe pressures on species survival as a result of increasing land-use change, environmental pollution, and the spread of invasive alien species. However, though the impact of these pressures on biodiversity is substantial, it could be seriously underestimated if population declines of plants and animals lag behind contemporary environmental degradation. Here, we test for such a delay in impact by relating numbers of threatened species appearing on national red lists to historical and contemporary levels of socioeconomic pressures. Across 22 European countries, the proportions of vascular plants, bryophytes, mammals, reptiles, dragonflies, and grasshoppers facing medium-to-high extinction risks are more closely matched to indicators of socioeconomic pressures (i.e., human population density, per capita gross domestic product, and a measure of land use intensity) from the early or mid-, rather than the late, 20th century. We conclude that, irrespective of recent conservation actions, large- scale risks to biodiversity lag considerably behind contemporary levels of socioeconomic pressures. The negative impact of human activities on current biodiversity will not become fully realized until several decades into the future. Mitigating extinction risks might be an even greater challenge if temporal delays mean many threatened species might already be destined toward extinction. 

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Scientists Decry Human Indifference to 'Probable Sixth Mass Extinction' <https://outreach.commondreams.org/Prod/link-tracker?redirectUrl=aHR0cHMlM0ElMkYlMkZ3d3cuY29tbW9uZHJlYW1zLm9yZyUyRm5ld3MlMkYyMDIyJTJGMDElMkYxOCUyRnNjaWVudGlzdHMtZGVjcnktaHVtYW4taW5kaWZmZXJlbmNlLXByb2JhYmxlLXNpeHRoLW1hc3MtZXh0aW5jdGlvbg==&sig=3bg8hxTYQFS2bfWYj8EBZ4mJFf2iTqqazext9yBUpAzw&iat=1642545612&a=%7C%7C27200540%7C%7C&account=commondreams27562%2Eactivehosted%2Ecom&email=4jHZBMkiTPEsjK%2BZ6iBIQlR0TxRF2AhoFJFqZhACLiU%3D&s=5a81b6f8505b27ed1e4935719456df07&i=123A142A7A1844>

"Denying the crisis, accepting it without reacting, or even encouraging it constitutes an abrogation of humanity's common responsibility," said one scientist behind the new study.
by Andrea Germanos

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“How can scientists protect biodiversity? In the wake of August’s Great Elephant Census, which revealed a precipitous decline in numbers throughout Africa, there were the usual calls from researchers for more and better data. Only if we know where and how many of each species there are, this argument goes, can we hope to conserve them. 

"This is nonsense.

“Better data will not save elephants, rhinos or any other species. An enormous number of individuals, academic institutions, local, state and national governments, and multinational and non-governmental organizations have been collecting, assimilating and organizing such data for decades, essentially fiddling while our biological heritage burns.”

Aaron M. Ellison. It’s time to get real about conservation. Nature  13 OCTOBER 2016

https://www.nature.com/polopoly_fs/1.20773!/menu/main/topColumns/topLeftColumn/pdf/538141a.pdf

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“Michael Schlesinger, a climate scientist at the University of Illinois, Urbana- Champaign, points to another example.

“ ‘Things are happening right now with the ice sheets that were not predicted to happen until 2100,’ Schlesinger says.
 
“ ‘My worry is that we may have passed the window of opportunity where learning is still useful.’ ”
 
John Bohannan, Trying to Lasso Climate Uncertainty, Science October 13, 2006
DOI: 10.1126/science.314.5797.243

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Domino effect could heat up Earth by 5 degrees Celsius  <https://www.dw.com/en/domino-effect-could-heat-up-earth-by-5-degrees-celsius-despite-paris-climate-deal/a-44968248>
https://www.dw.com/en/domino-effect-could-heat-up-earth-by-5-degrees-celsius-despite-paris-climate-deal/a-44968248 <https://www.dw.com/en/domino-effect-could-heat-up-earth-by-5-degrees-celsius-despite-paris-climate-deal/a-44968248>

Aug 6, 2018 ... Even if the Paris agreement is successfully implemented, the planet could still heat up by 5 degrees Celsius, scientists warn.

The lead authors say:

“Our study suggests that human-induced global warming of 2 degrees Celsius may trigger other Earth system processes, often called 'feedbacks,' that can drive further warming — even if we stop emitting greenhouse gases.” 

And:

“These tipping elements can potentially act like a row of dominos. Once one is pushed over, it pushes Earth toward another. It may be very difficult or impossible to stop the whole row of dominoes from tumbling over.” 


The above referenced PNAS article:
Steffen, Rockström et al. Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. PNAS August 2018. [Open access]
https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/115/33/8252.full.pdf <http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115>
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